Donald Trump's customary bluster, intimidation and threats backfired on him this time. It might well result in a Democrat winning the 2026 U.S. Senate election in our state.
Senator Thom Tillis voted against a procedural motion to bring Trump's so-called
"Big Beautiful Bill" to the Senate floor. Immediately, Trump chastised Tillis and promised to
"primary him," finding a candidate to run against him next year. The shot was aimed at Tillis, but the rest of the gutless Republican Senators also got the message. Cross King Trump at your own peril.
Tillis obviously had a belly full of Fearless Leader and trumped Trump by immediately announcing he would not run for re-election in 2026. Shock waves instantly reverberated across the nation.
This contest had already been speculated to be hard-fought, perhaps the costliest and most bitter since the 1984 Hunt-Helms campaign. MAGA sycophants just assumed he would just fall in line and vote for the ill-named bill. They don't know Thom Tillis well!
Tillis has always been a conservative Republican. When he was House Speaker, Thom was a master vote counter; a bill wouldn't reach the House floor if he didn't know it would win. He deftly kept both the hard right-wing and more moderate caucus factions united. Tillis was one of our more effective Speakers.
Thom's Senate voting record was much more to the right, but there were moments he was willing to go against his caucus, like on same-sex marriage and health care. I think it fair to conclude our Senator didn't make either the far right or the moderate wings of the party totally happy, but despite appearances sometimes to the contrary, especially when he caved and voted for some of Trump's obviously unqualified cabinet picks Tillis had the best chance to retain the seat. That's now out the window, although there's this little voice telling me not to count him out just yet.
Trump will have to pick a candidate to endorse. Lara Trump, who lives in Florida with her husband and Trump's son, Eric has the best shot if she's willing to run. Lara's a Wilmington native and looked at entering two other Senate races but decided not to run. She's savvy, got campaign and fund-raising chops and is an articulate speaker.
We will know her intentions soon. North Carolina requires candidates to be members of a state political party for at least 90 days before filing to run. Since this also requires she be a resident of our state she would need to move back to North Carolina by September to meet the requirements before filing begins in December.
If Lara decides not to make the race, the next best shot might be Michael Whatley, former chair of the NC GOP and now co-chair of the national Republican Party. He's close to Trump and knows the state. Other names also mentioned are former Congressman Dan Bishop and current congressmen Brad Knott and Richard Hudson.
Democrats believe '26 might be the best chance they've had at capturing a US Senate seat since Kay Hagan won in 2008. Former congressman Wiley Nickel has declared his candidacy, but this nomination is Roy Cooper's for the taking. As someone who has followed Roy Cooper since he first came to the legislature, I can say he is solid, measured, and thinks before he speaks.
Cooper, the former two-term state Attorney General and two-term Governor, has proven himself able to win elections. He left office still popular. Roy is not a big risk taker and if he declares it will be because he and his advisors believe his chances to win are pretty good.
Roy knows the issues. One is that Trump and the congress are doing great damage to Medicaid, the project Roy supported for years until he finally got the legislature to pass expansion. As many as 600,000 North Carolinians are at risk of losing their insurance. Other issues include higher prices, more government debt, rampant racism, and illegal violations against immigrants. Trump's bill should be renamed the Big Bad Bogus Bankrupting Burdensome Bundle.
The cherry on top of the election cake is Trump himself. By November 2026 his popularity will be even lower than now. Besides, it is customary for the party not in the White House to make gains in mid-term elections. Besides, unaffiliated voters will determine the outcome of this election and polls show they currently aren't happy with Trump.
Democrats have a good chance to win the US Senate seat.
Tom Campbell is a Hall of Fame North Carolina Broadcaster and columnist who has covered North Carolina public policy issues since 1965. He recently retired from writing, producing and moderating the statewide half-hour TV program NC SPIN that aired 22 ½ years. Contact him at tomcamp@carolinabroadcasting.com.
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