Will Trump's Putin gambit impact GOP turnout in midterm elections? | Eastern NC Now

A recent attempt by President Trump to talk down diesel prices for an election boost may blow up in his face due to the source of the diesel. Russia and its dictator Vladimir Putin. Whether this move turns out more of a negative or a plus remains to be seen.  The problem is that Trump has jumped into something that cuts both ways, and probably without analyzing the downside.

What Trump is trying to project is a "deal" that will increase the supply of diesel and therefore cut the cost.  If that "talks down" the price on the eve of the midterms, he sees a political gain.  One problem is that the quantities are far too little to move the market. The first month's supply would amount to only 14 hours of actual US use.  The second month's supply would only be slightly more.  This supply would not be solely for the US, as the terms of the deal target it for the world market, making the actual impact even less here.  Another complication, is that US law, which Trump cannot waive, prohibits its direct import to the US.

On the downside, polling shows that 81% of voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 despise Vladimir Putin.  It is probably even worse now, as that poll was taken before Putin shared Russian intelligence with Iran to make their targeting of US assets in the Middle East more effective.  Pandering to a dictator who just stabbed us in the back does not go over well.

Trump then proclaimed his own "energy truce" in the Ukraine War without consulting either side.  Ukraine's President Zelensky had been proposing such a truce for months, but Trump's terms were not even handed. They were solely to benefit Russia.  Russia has been attacking Ukraine's energy grid every winter to try to freeze its civilians to death. This involves both the electric plants and distribution network and the centralized heating plants common in eastern Europe.

Russia hit Ukraine's energy grid an hour after Trump's announcement.  In the following three days, it hit it again 76 times.   Ukraine waited three days, and after Russia kept hitting their energy sector, rejoined the fray with new attacks on Russian refineries and other petroleum assets.

Diesel production has a special place in warfare.  Russia's tanks, armored personnel carriers, air defensive systems, Kamaz military trucks, and other military equipment runs on it.  During the war, Russia has prioritized its diesel production for its military, often at the expense of its farmers, who also need it for agricultural machinery.  This year, about a third of Russia's grain production rotted in the field due to unavailable or costly diesel.  The sunflower crop, used for cooking oil was hit even worse, with 96-98% unharvested. Diesel was needed both to harvest the seeds and then to press them into cooking oil, and that diesel was allocated to the military instead.

With 51% of Russia's refineries shut down due to Ukrainian long range drone strikes, Russia itself has had a ban on export of its own diesel.  It is, in fact, importing diesel from India, Morocco, South Korea, Belarus, and Kazachstan.  This is unusual for a country once called by a prominent US Senator "a gas station with nukes".

So, where is it going to get diesel to meet these token supplies in the Trump diesel deal?  Some speculation, given the season, is that it would be running down its last stocks of summer diesel, in preparation for refilling them with winter diesel.  In Russia's climate, which also applies to Ukraine, diesel in the winter requires special additives or it simply will not work.  That summer diesel, however, will still work fine, year round, in warmer climates.

After Ukraine resumed its refinery strikes, two events sparked fears of a retaliation from the White House.  First, for three nights, intelligence sharing was not provided by the US on Russian missile launches toward Ukraine.  This meant that air raid sirens were not able to be turned on in a timely manner to warn civilians, so that Russia could murder them in their beds.  The second was that the speed on StarShield, the military version of Starlink, which is controlled by the US military, was restricted.  Since Starshield has never been provided over Russian territory, this did not impact strikes on Russian refineries.  What it did impact, was the new fast interceptors used by Ukraine against the new Russian jet powered attack drones.  Again, this led to more civilians dying in their beds.  It also impacted military drone missions into occupied Ukrainian territory, disrupting those missions.  These moves have been interpreted by many as dirty tricks to try to force Ukraine into a very one sided "energy truce" to Russia's benefit but with Ukraine's own energy grid still open to Russian attack.

Trump says he wants to "make a deal" to end the war, but Putin has made it clear that the only terms he will accept will be those that would destroy Ukraine as a sovereign and independent country.  Hopefully, that is not what Trump is after.  Russia is an aggressor state, and if it gets its way with Ukraine, it will just move on to attack others.

Then, too, Russia and Putin are charged with a very long list of war crimes.  Who in their right mind wants to jump into bed with a war criminal?