Broadsword calling Danny Boy: March Madness -- ACC, Big 12, PAC 12 futures as 'Heels and Bakhmut both go kaput | Eastern North Carolina Now

The Duke azz whuppin' of Carolina on Senior Night in Chapel Hill broke the hearts of every blue-belly Walmart fan as the public bet the Heels like the game had already been played.

You were the low down rebel if there ever was
Even if you had no cause.
James Dean, you said it all so clean
And I know my life would look alright
If I could see it on the silver screen.

Well talk about a low-down bad refrigerator,
You were just too cool for school.
Sock hop, soda pop, basketball and auto shop,
The only thing that got you off was breakin' all the rules.

James Dean, James Dean, so hungry and so lean.
James Dean, you said it all so clean
And I know my life would look alright
If I could see it on the silver screen.

Little James Dean up on the screen
Wond'rin' who he might be.
Along came a Spyder, picked up a rider,
Took him down the road to eternity.
- Glenn Frey

The Correspondent and the Old Trench Fighter retrace Princip's journey through the back streets of Sarajevo on that fateful June day in 1914 - nineteen-ninety something: Above.     Click image to enlarge.

    The Duke azz whuppin' of Carolina on Senior Night in Chapel Hill broke the hearts of every blue-belly Walmart fan as the public bet the Heels like the game had already been played. With GameDay in town and the ensuing hype all morning out of Chapel Hill, a kid hitting the half-court scholarship shot and a self-reinforcing belief in the Cult of Blue Heaven, the 'Heels opening Moneyline price of -137 was steamed to -183 by the tip.

    The Moneyline is a straight win or lose proposition at odds, versus the usage of a point-spread to handicap the contest. Worried about laying points against Duke and realising Carolina needed the game for their lungs (to keep breathing for a Big Dance slot) the unlettered masses bet the 'Heels all morning, all afternoon and early into the evening. By the time Duke reached +160 on the other side of the equation, the professionals were monkey-hammering quam through the window to fade the public wrong-way action.

    (Then there is the case of Westerby, who laid the foundation with Carolina -139 early and came back late with technically-adjusted same-same on Duke +160 for the risk-free four point something percentage gain -- a strong portfolio return for a two-hour time preference. This advanced form of scalping not recommended for the faint of heart, arm-chair warrior.)

    Welcome to Championship Week where the conference tournaments take center stage as teams battle for their respective crowns, jockey for seeding position in the Big Dance or, like Carolina, seek a miracle title-run that generates an automatic bid to the National Title tourney. Like the Spanish Civil War approaching World War II or Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Gruppen shock-troops before the gates of Bakhmut, Championship Week an opportunity for classic Modern-Game battle-tactics to be finely honed before the big one.

    Just as the Modern-Game artiste must initiate action with either drop or jab-step, so must the plunger establish forward high-value futures tickets to use as leverage later -- in terms of seeking middles that collect a premium while keeping the ever-escalating high-payoff ticket live and in action. Already we see strong value with our DUKE (+6000) (60-1) Big Dance tickets acquired some three weeks past. Since then the Blue Devils have been on fire and that price greatly reduced -- to the point where the ticket is theoretical money-good in real-time.

    Duke is being steamed so hard they are now the favourite in the ACC Tourney at +280 despite being seeded fourth. Inappropriate slur of your choice, please. Duke is most unlikely to win this thing but if they do that is some kind of shum buker zemer as our Big Dance tickets then become even more valuable. But this price way too low for the risk involved and homey don't play that emotional game. We want value for our quam with these futures tickets and if one of them actually goes the distance and collects -- then that is just another half-court shot going in for the money.

    Our calls for the ACC Tourney futures (all for one unit -- to win the ring) are MIAMI (+340), CLEMSON (+600), and PITT (+1400). Both Clemson and Pitt are value selections that offer tremendous opportunities to find the middle that advances the ticket -- by taking their opponents and the points in games where the number works for us.

    Pitt offers value from this perspective by having an extra game to work with and will offer Duke a much tougher initial contest than Miami will see before the two higher seeds meet. Clemson is a play to set-up a huge middle when they most likely battle State College; the winner of that contest probable to reach the Championship game as the bottom half of the bracket much softer than the top.

    We like the Miami ticket as Farnell advises his numbers indicate the Hurricanes should be about +290 and we are taking a shot at value. On the question of the casual punter looking for ticket value, the price on Pitt is too high and worth a shot for someone who wants to go for it. Keep in mind that if the Panthers reach the final they will be favoured against any team but Virginia and will offer an opportunity to hedge the ticket at a very strong price for the last game, ensuring a win of about +520 or so and a chance to catch both with the middle.

    Very strong value on Pitt here if you know how to hedge it out -- most likely all such conference tourney contests concluded before this space babbles in front of you again. State College is close to backing themselves into a Big Dance play-in game, and should they get past Clemson will be a powerful move with the points in the next round against Carolina or Virginia. Regardless, the ACC Tournament an opportunity to sharpen your form before three weeks of the Big Dance.

    We observe and acquire two other futures positions with good value. In the Big 12 we like KANSAS (+300) as a straight move to win the title. This price has been dropping steadily since Sunday when Texas was favoured but now sees Kansas as the chalk. Monster hat-tip to Farnell for mon(K)ey-hammering this tater @ (+350) and permitting legacy UCK elements to front-run his move -- thank you Bro, as with Wagner hit squads now operating in the province, local peeps be needing that Western confetti to reconstitute the Brigade.

    In the PAC 12 we are wishing we had taken UCLA to win the BIg Dance before the price reached its current point; the Bruins in many ways look like the best team in the country now and likely to reach the one-seed line once the smoke clears this week. Their price is too low this week with the risk involved of possibly seeing Arizona again, and we are seeking a value play on USC (+800) -- that be Southern Cal to east coast country boys that can survive.

    The Trojans are all about hedging value and Boogie Ellis. If you don't know who Boogie Ellis is now, you will in a month; this guy can go Pistol Pete on anybody and makes Southern Cal a legit long-shot. At this price, if they make the finals, we have a solid in the money hedge that should bring home right at three plus units either way.


    Hopefully peeps have been tearing up the hoops the past two weeks to build the bank roll for a wild Big Dance tipping off in less than a week. This time of year it is all about spotting those numbers early, site adjusting to the changes, and then applying the proper Kentucky windage in terms of Moneyline pricing vectored by point-spread analytics.

    However, this stuff doesn't come in a can. You can't go down to Walmart and acquire this nuance like urban peeps lifting a Carolina Tarheels hoodie from the discount rack. Takes time, effort and insight; a good grounding in higher mathematics ain't gonna hurt your form either. The least important criteria for crushing The Man in March is knowing anything about basketball. In fact, the ones who get absolutely annihilated each season are the basketball experts who know every cubic metre of the game, but don't know a square inch of themselves.

    We have seventeen units out there in terms of future plays: The above mentioned five units in conference tourneys, two units at strong odds in the Big Dance on DUKE, STATE COLLEGE, BAYLOR and SAN DIEGO STATE and four units on MIAMI. The key now is to pay attention, observe carefully developing price changes and then, when the time is right, to absolutely hammer the hedges and find those middles that advance the big ticket while collecting a premium on the hedge.

    Decisive force at the decisive point at the decisive time delivers the mail -- whether infiltrating The Man's pricing algorithm or Wagner Gruppen same-same in Kosovo province. Don't wait for the iron to grow hot before striking -- make the iron hot by striking!

    Whatever you do stay away from Carolina. By this time next week they will be looking worse than the shell-shocked survivors of Bakhmut -- after Wagner torches the last Ukie crispy critters squatting on holy Russian soil. However, should they somehow weasel their way into the Tournament best to tread carefully.

    There was a reason the late Terry Holland named his dog Dean Smith.
Go Back

Back to Top