Broadsword calling Danny Boy: Army vs Navy (+2); Tennessee vs Iowa (+7 and the hook); Ole Miss vs Penn State (-180); Brighton? | Eastern North Carolina Now

It seems like yesterday
But it was long ago
Jayne was lovely she was the queen of my nights
There in the darkness with the radio playing low

And I remember what she said to me
How she swore that it never would end
I remember how she held me oh so tight
Wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then

Against the wind
We were runnin' against the wind
We were young and strong, we were runnin'
Against the wind

The years rolled slowly past
And I found myself alone
Surrounded by strangers I thought were my friends
I found myself further and further from my home

Well those drifter's days are past me now
I've got so much more to think about
Deadlines and commitments
What to leave in, what to leave out

Against the wind
I'm still runnin' against the wind
I'm older now but still runnin' against the wind - Bob Seger


Becton Commandos storm the beaches of Myrtle, 1980: Above.     Click image to enlarge.
    College bowl season has arrived with some forty plus games, featuring the usual suspects, slated during the next month. Fortunes will be made and lost on the bounce of the ball and the transfer portal as handicappers and other gambling degenerates seek to crush The Man in his time of greatest peril. Yes, Dear Reader, the opening card is full of soft numbers and with patience, focus and a little luck we are going to kick The Man's azz like ole Bob E. Lee at Chancellorsville back in '63.

    Much of this about timing; with initial numbers up the weekend, some games are already moving. The biggest move so far is Ohio State opening six and the hook and now down to three and the hook with the QB portal transfer announcement. Congrats to those who hammered Misery early. Other early moves are on Alabama, State College, Texas Tech, Arizona and Auburn. There will be plenty more this week.

    Alabama and Texas both delivered the mail as we climb to 13-6 and plus 17.75 units in this space -- and with a major theme this bowl season the Big 10 / SEC match-ups (with six contests slated between the two conferences) we are in good position to dominate December. We suspect the initial thinking will be the SEC is the stronger and badder conference with a huge speed advantage; with the exception of the Iowa game, we sense the price is likely to move toward the SEC teams. With one very strong Big 10 / SEC game in mind, we will wait and see if the price movement on that one continues to track in our favour.


    This week Army meets Navy at Foxboro in their annual nationally televised tilt. Both teams are 5-6 but neither is bowl eligible due to the timing of this game (post-season). They are two terrible teams that play dull and unimaginative football; this game is usually a pass because there is seldom an advantage unless the underdog is the better team.

    This year Navy is slightly better than Army in terms of run-stopping defence and with the game played on the worn down Field Turf of Gillette Stadium we see the Middies forcing Army to pass more than they prefer. This Army passing attack could be stopped by Barton College (especially with the up and coming young defensive coordinators there) and Navy will shut that dung down. There is not a lot of value on this move but if you have to be on it (or need a winner) then it is Anchors Aweigh.

    (Hughes advising from London that his beloved Burnley is tracking toward relegation in Premier League play. He mentions BRIGHTON (-205) is the side Saturday. This probably a better value than Navy, especially after Brighton lost to a man short Chelsea Saturday past.)

    Army - Navy, English Premier League? For real, Man, where's the beef? We are assuming Farnell survived the epic Magnolia Shores oyster roast and would be most pleased if he might chime in with bowl game insight following the mind-sharpening '78 - '79 milieu. This is Bowl Season and we need winners, Man.

    "We think Army - Navy is a bad game to be on but with a posted total of 28 and clear weather expected in Foxboro, the Middies are the side. Every time Army has tried to add the hook, strong Navy action has brought it back to two. Normally we would look at the money line here but with a short price we will recall the sage advice that a free safety (two points) will hook you a low-scoring game or two over the course of the season."

    "The game we like most out of the gate is IOWA (+7 and the hook) against Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl and will make this our heaviest move of the season. Iowa looked terrible in being shut out against Michigan on the fast track but the defence was there the whole game. Ferentz coaching his 20th bowl game (10-9) at Iowa and with a win surpasses Paterno and becomes the all time Big 10 bowl game victory leader. Iowa has a terrible offence but superb special teams and the best punter in the country, they are about field position football with explosive plays on defence."


    "Tennessee is a big-name SEC opponent that lives and dies by the run, led by overrated QB Milton prone to making mistakes. The Vols were crushed when they ran into the Misery stone wall and Iowa even better stopping the run. Josh Heupel is a terrible coach for the Vols; a big name with a 2-3 bowl record. Finally, the Vols more likely to be hit with a transfer portal issue as Knoxville just another NIL stop these days. Iowa should win this contest outright; the game opened at eight and has already dropped a hook."

    "We also like PENN STATE (-180) against Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl despite the coaching mismatch working against us. We like the Nittany Lions for their run-stopping defence mismatch versus the Rebs. Penn State gives up 70 yards per game on the ground and has yielded nine rushing TDs. Ole Miss gives up 170 a game on the ground while surrendering 19 rushing TDs. That is all we need to know about this game. Penn State has a decisive special teams advantage sufficiently combined with the rest to lay the points; but since Franklin is a complete buffoon of a coach in terms of game-management we will go the more conservative money line approach."

    "At press time both the Duke and Carolina bowl game prices were yet to be posted; indicating perhaps some transfer portal dynamics at play. State College has seen early action versus Kansas State as the game opened five and the hook and was steamed to four and the hook overnight. At first glance this does not seem to be a good match-up for the Wolfpack; however if you are going to be on State College don't wait as the price is tracking against you at the moment."

    In these crazy times where a 13-0 ACC champ can't make the college playoff and gold has broken out past 2050 USD, it is good to know there is still the sanity of kicking The Man in his rear end out there to keep mankind level. Our calls here are NAVY (+2) for one unit and IOWA (+7 and the hook) for our first four unit move of the campaign. We will add PENN STATE (-180) for two units, meaning we risk 3.6 units to win two -- needing only an outright win to cash the ticket.

NAVY    16  •  ARMY    10

IOWA    17  •  ROCKY TOP    13

PENN STATE    31  •  OLE MISS    17

    These bowl numbers are soft right now and over the next couple weeks will move a bit; there is value in establishing position early and then hunkering down. If you are able to work your way to seeing these games as commodities trading on an exchange, instead of football wagering, then the concepts championed by Livermore become even more critical in successfully challenging The Man. As he said more than a couple times:

    “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon; It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”


    Gold hitting an all-time high is what is known as a bad indicator for most peeps -- unless, of course, they hold gold. The basic cost of living price-explosion of 2024 is going to break a lot of folks as the election divides America even further; but that all down the line.

    In the meantime, Texas has a national title to win. Hook 'em Horns.