Historian With Infallible Record Of Predicting Presidents Weighs In On 2024 Race | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This post appears here courtesy of the The Daily Wire. The author of this post is Hank Berrien.

    A historian with a perfect record of predicting the results of American presidential elections for 40 years stated that despite the polls, President Biden still has a lead over former President Trump - but cautioned he won't make a prediction until August.

    American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has infallibly predicted every election since 1984, created along with Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok a prediction model of 13 keys which they published in a 1981 paper, later expanding the number of keys to 13. Lichtman then published his book "The Keys to the White House," later reissued as "Predicting the Next President: The Keys To The White House."


    "A lot of things would have to go wrong [for the election keys] to go against Biden," Lichtman told Market Watch. "But they could. I am very careful in not making a prediction." He said that Biden currently leads Trump in five of the keys, while Trump leads in three, with the rest undecided.

    The 13 keys include:

  1. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

    Lichtman said Biden led Trump in key# 2, as Biden has not faced a serious challenger in his own party; key #3, as he is the incumbent; key #6, claiming the long-term economic trend is headed upward; key # 7, that Biden has made major changes, and #13, explaining that a challenger should have broadly bipartisan support or be a national hero in the way former President Dwight Eisenhower was after World war II.

    Trump leads in keys 1, 11, and 12, Lichtman opined, pointing out (#1) that the Democrats do not hold more seats in House than after the previous midterm elections; (#11) Biden has not had a major foreign policy win, and (#12) Biden is neither charismatic nor a national hero.


    Key #9 would depend on the American people feeling that the Biden administration is tainted by a major scandal. Lichtman argued that the Trump campaign has not been able to convince the general public, not just Republicans, of a major scandal involving the Biden administration.

    "Here is the secret to being a successful forecaster," Lichtman said. "The most important thing is keeping your own personal views out of it. I've called about as many Republican wins and Democratic wins. In 2016 I was virtually alone in predicting a win for Donald Trump."
Go Back


Latest Bloodless Warfare: Politics

Only two of the so-called “three Johns” will be competing to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as leader of the Senate GOP.
Daily Wire Editor Emeritus Ben Shapiro, along with hosts Matt Walsh, Andrew Klavan, and company co-founder Jeremy Boreing discussed the state of the 2024 presidential election before President Joe Biden gave his State of the Union address on Thursday.
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said this week that the criminal trials against former President Donald Trump should happen before the upcoming elections.
It’s “Bo time” again, this time in North Carolina’s Sixth Congressional District.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced on Tuesday that he has selected Nicole Shanahan to be his vice presidential running mate as he continues to run as an Independent after dropping out of the Democratic Party’s presidential primary late last year.
On Tuesday, another Republican announced that he plans to retire early from the House, a decision that would further diminish a narrow GOP majority in the lower chamber.


Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) introduced a bill Wednesday that would shave 8 hours off the standard 40-hour work week that has been around for several decades.
Glenn Beck: 'When the United States government can come after individuals, that's when you know our republic is crumbling.'
Washington, D.C. — Congressman Greg Murphy, M.D. issued the following statement on the latest continuing resolution:
WASHINGTON – Today, as Joe Biden continues his Bankrupting America Tour in North Carolina, Republican National Committee (RNC) Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel released the following statement:
Former President Donald Trump dominated the North Dakota Republican Caucus on Monday as he continues to inch closer to officially securing the party’s presidential nomination.
RALEIGH: Today, Governor Cooper visited a bus facility in Durham to highlight the recent significant federal funding for electric school buses in North Carolina.


The White House unveiled a new term on Thursday for the millions of illegal aliens who have flooded into the U.S. under President Joe Biden, which came just shortly before Biden took a trip to the border for a photo op at a spot that has had few illegal aliens cross.


Back to Top