SECRETARY MNUCHIN: I would just say we are very determined - whether it's in the case of Iran or it's the case in here - to use sanctions, to use them in the right way. And we're very comfortable that we've coordinated with the Department of Energy and other people on this mechanism.
Q Thank you, Mr. Secretary. There have been reports that there are an estimated 25,000 Cuban troops in Venezuela - troops or secret police - which is a clear violation of the OAS Charter - Chapter IV, Article 21 - about troops of another country in a sovereign nation. Will the United States raise a complaint, if nothing else, with the Havana regime about troops in Venezuela?
AMBASSADOR BOLTON: As you know, Secretary of State Pompeo addressed the OAS General Assembly a few days ago. We expect other meetings of the OAS - on this and related subjects - in the coming days, because as both Secretary Mnuchin and I have said, we know what the legitimate government of Venezuela is, and it's our mission now to make a full reality in Venezuela what the people of Venezuela themselves want.
Q Do you have confirmation of that number? That's a correct number?
(Crosstalk.)
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Yes. Go ahead.
Q Since we have you in the room here, if you don't mind me turning your attention to the talks that will take place at the end of this week - a statement was put out just before you came out here - the talks with China. In your opinion, where does all of that stand right now? Are you comfortable with progress that's been made in the last couple of weeks? Larry Kudlow has said that the talks over the next couple of days will be determinative. Is that your assessment as well?
SECRTARY MNUCHIN: I think we've had very productive conversations going back between the meeting between the two Presidents, which was a very important time. I think you know we sent a team over to Beijing. There were very significant discussions for that period of time. We've had conversations since then. Ambassador Lighthizer and I are looking forward to the two days of talks. President Trump is going to meet with Vice Premier Liu He at the end of those.
Now, let me just remind people: We do have another 30 days after this, so my expectation is that we'll make significant progress at these meetings. But I would just emphasize these are complicated issues. We have a timeline of how we've mapped out the 90 days.
Q How much progress has been made in the last month, if you can sort of characterize it?
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Again, I would just comment that I think there's been significant movement, and we're working through what are still very complicated issues.
Q Mr. Secretary, I want to go back to gas prices. Can you qualify and quantify - I understand that you're saying that gas prices are low now. But in the midst of this, with all this that's happening with Venezuela, how long do you believe that this will - that gas prices will move up to a modest impact on the oil industry? And can you quantify by how much? By cents, by tens of cents, or even by dollars. I mean, what is the modest impact that you're expecting?
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Well, let me comment that, in general - I've said this before - markets are not always efficient. They move in different directions. So I want to be careful and not speculating on markets.
I mean, I think, kind of, oil went up a lot right before the Iran sanctions. We were surprised that it went up so much. I think, you know, President Trump had been on the phone with many world leaders and making sure there was ample supply. Prices came down. The U.S. is a big exporter of oil, so there's a balance here. But, you know, I think where oil prices are now reflect the supply and demand in the market.
And as I've said, we're dealing with Venezuelan oil that is a rather modest part of our overall supply. Again, we're a net exporter of energy. We are particularly concerned that there were a handful of refineries that had a dependence on Venezuelan oil. I think they read the tea leaves; they reduced that dependence significantly along the way. Most of them have in the neighborhood of 10 percent of less of their dependent on Venezuelan oil. So I don't expect that people will see an impact on the gas pumps.
Q So are we talking about sweet or sour crude from Venezuela? Sweet or sour crude?
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Again, I'm not going to get into all of the specifics of the different oil markets, but let me just say that most of these refineries - this is about 10 percent or less. There is plenty of supply at sea that's already been paid for. So there is inventories. There has been excess oil. I'm sure many of our friends in the Middle East will be happy to make up the supply as we push down Venezuela's supply.
But let me again just emphasize, you know, the right outcome is a transition for PDVSA. The right outcome for the Venezuelan people is to have these companies rebuilt and to make sure that they get out of poverty. It's a complete tragedy to have a humanitarian crisis in a country that has very rich resources.
Q Mr. Secretary -
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Yes.
Q Thank you. Ambassador Bolton, can I ask you a question, please?
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Wait, we were recognizing her and then you can go next.
Q Thank you. You were pointing at me. Thank you, Mr. Secretary.
On China, if you would address what you believe is the - we've heard this word "enforcement" quite a bit and about being a priority for the administration in these talks.
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: It is. Enforcement will definitely be one of the topics that Ambassador Lighthizer and I have on the agenda. And, I mean - I think this is pretty obvious - but we want to make sure that we expect, when we get a deal, that that deal will be enforced. And I would say, in the conversations we had previous with them, there's been acknowledge with China that they understand that.
Now, the details of how we do that are very complicated. That needs to be negotiated. But IP protection, no more forced joint ventures, and the enforcement are three of the most important issues on the agenda.
Q Ambassador Bolton, has the President spoken directly with President Guaidó? And if so -
AMBASSADOR BOLTON: I beg your pardon. Could start that over again, please?
Q Sure. Has the President spoken directly with President Guaidó? If so, can you summarize that conversation? And how safe does the President believe our diplomats are currently?
AMBASSADOR BOLTON: The Vice President has had several conversations with Interim President Guaidó, including most recently the night before we granted the recognition. He'll be meeting with Interim President Guaidó's ambassador here in the near future.
In terms of American official personnel, it has been an absolute top priority for President Trump. The Vice President, Secretary Pompeo, and myself, we have drawn down significantly personnel at the embassy. All dependent personnel are gone.
We believe we are now prepared - as prepared as we can be. We're reevaluating the safety conditions at all time. And it's why we have said we've presented credentials to Interim President Guaidó. We recognize him as the legitimate President. He has asked for us to stay. We have made very clear, to what's left of the Maduro regime, that we hold them responsible and we take their commitment to do that very seriously.
Q Ambassador Bolton, if I may ask you, what is your assessment of the relationship between Nicolas Maduro and his military? Do you believe support is fracturing? And do you believe that the Russians are playing any kind of role in trying to support the military?
AMBASSADOR BOLTON: Well, our assessment, based on numerous contacts on the ground, is that the rank and file of the Venezuelan military is acutely aware of the desperate economic conditions in the country. And we think they look for ways to support the National Assembly government. We think the junior officer ranks and the mid-level officer ranks are the same. And we are also aware of significant contacts between general officers of the Venezuelan military and supporters of the National Assembly.
So you may have seen a statement last week by the Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino, flanked by a number of generals in uniform. What they didn't know was how many of them were already talking to the National Assembly.
We'll take one more here.
Q My question is twofold. Do we have a timeline where we're going to reassess as to whether or not these sanctions are working and what the next step would be? Is there a timeline in place for that?
And secondly, can you speak to the administration's critics who say that, since the government shutdown, the administration is in disarray?
SECRETARY MNUCHIN: Well, let me first say, on sanctions, we always evaluate sanctions continuously, both existing sanctions as well as future sanctions. So we will carefully be looking at the effectiveness of these and whether we need additional sanctions.
Now, I would just tell you, speaking for Treasury, I want to thank all the large number of government workers who came in. I will tell you, as it relates to specifically the sanctions area, people have been working around the clock. And we couldn't have gotten this done without the enormous support of all the people who came in. So, quite the contrary - we weren't in disarray. Again, I want to thank all the important people who helped out on this.
MS. SANDERS: Very briefly, I'm going to have Larry Kudlow come up, give a quick economic update, take a couple questions on that, and then I'll be back up for the rest of the questions of the day.
MR. KUDLOW: Good, thanks. I'll just say, as I have for a while, that I still think the economy is very strong. I know there are some disagreements. But I think, as the numbers shake out, the Commerce Department is reopening, we're going to get a GDP report probably next week, we'll get a jobs report this Friday. So that'll work out.
Based on things we've talked about here - unemployment claims, low; industrial production, strong; business investment, strong; holiday sales, very strong - I still think we're on a 3 percent trend line growth rate, and I'm proud of that.
I think that the program of lower tax rates, and regulatory rollback, and opening up energy and so forth is working and is continuing to work.
And I think, frankly, the optimists - the guys that took the over - are going to be right.
Yes, Major.
Q Do you consider valid the estimates that the shutdown cost the U.S. economy between $8 billion and $11 billion?
MR. KUDLOW: You know, I looked at them. I think you're referring to CBO numbers that came out today. We frequently disagree with CBO. With all respect, they're doing the best job they can; I get that. No, I don't - I won't acknowledge any of that right now. And in a $20 trillion economy, it's awfully hard to make even the best guesstimates of those kinds of small fractions of numbers. That's what you're looking at here. Let's see how it rolls out.
We'll get a GDP report in about a week for Q4. It'll take longer for the first quarter. As I've said many times, I think you have just a whole bunch of very temporary factors. And now that the government has reopened, the switch goes right back on. There's certainly no permanent damage to the economy.
Q If I could follow up, Larry -
MR. KUDLOW: So I just - again, with the greatest of respect to my friends at CBO, who often disagree with us and do not acknowledge the importance of our pro-growth tax cuts - just to put an editorial in - no, I don't really agree. Sorry.
Q Can I follow up and just say, from your economic perspective, how disruptive was this? Not at all?
MR. KUDLOW: Look, the hardships for individuals was always the key problem here, in my judgment. And, as Steve Mnuchin said, no, there's - I'm glad we're back to work. I'm glad all the federal employees, I'm glad all the people furloughed - TSA - you can go right down the line - I think those individual hardships were the biggest issue. And I think everybody is glad we can reopen and put folks back to work.
Regarding the macro economy, Major, I don't think it was a factor. I just don't.
