Broadsword calling Danny Boy: ECU (+34 and the hook) at Michigan; Ten Year yield 4.08! | Eastern North Carolina Now

"Winding your way down on Baker Street
Light in your head and dead on your feet
Well, another crazy day
You'll drink the night away
And forget about ev'rything

This city desert makes you feel so cold
It's got so many people, but it's got no soul
And it's taken you so long
To find out you were wrong
When you thought it held everything

Way down the street there's a light in his place
He opens the door, he's got that look on his face
And he asks you where you've been
You tell him who you've seen
And you talk about anything

He's got this dream about buying some land
He's gonna give up the booze and the one-night stands
And then he'll settle down
In some quiet little town
And forget about ev'rything" - Gerald Rafferty


The Bishop holds court as ECU delivers the mail. Carter-Finley Stadium -- nineteen-eighty something: Above.     Click image to enlarge.
    With the fate of all mankind hanging in the balance, East Carolina University heads to The Big House for a Labor Day weekend contest of skill and science the likes of which few living have ever seen. The five touchdown underdog Pirates not only the Lock of the Century to cover this number, but if the defence does their job and the special teams shine, ECU has an outside chance to pull the monster upset as this opening number softer than the summer's much-vaunted Ukrainian counter-offensive.


    The Man knows this, it is no secret. He also knows the public loves favourites and big name programs like Michigan early in the season and will overpay for them every time. The explosion in legalised online gaming platforms increases player handle/volume for the house while reducing aggregate public handicapping acumen.

    This is what is known as a win-win situation. New plungers learn every mistake in the book by making every mistake in the book. Part of the magnificent effort of Farnell, Colvin, Hughes, Sterling and the rest of the gang in sharing their hard-earned insight is to help you, Noble Reader, avoid such costly errors.

    They will show you how to crush The Man each week in college football while building a bankroll to blow on the Super Bowl safety that is likely to be +1000 by February kickoff. When that hits, the March Madness bankroll will sky to the moon where events will become most interesting...

    Well, if you have been around before you get the idea. In the meantime please observe the yield on the US Ten Year note as it has gone over four again and has been holding there of late. If you are a casual observer of economics and worried about things but not really understanding it all, this is a simple barometric observation to make on a regular basis.

    The Fed and DC need that number under four. Rolling paper requiring refinance, and mortgage rates choking the housing market, will break the U.S. economic perceived reality if this yield hits 4.5 and stays there. This number hits five and peeps will be rethinking everything as their quam crumbles beneath preliminary hyper-inflation rumblings.

    Those are concerns for another day. The ECU-Michigan number opened thirty six and the hook and has seen strong Pirate support drive the line to thirty four and the hook (crossing the key number of 35). This price is likely to drop further by kickoff and could easily close as far south as 32 if the sharps like what they see after a hard look.

    If you like ECU don't wait to pull the trigger. The price will only go down from here.

    Coach Mike Houston brings a Pirate squad to Ann Arbor with a decent defence and a new signal-caller in Mason Garcia. The sophomore is big with a strong arm but decision-making ability and quickness are areas in need of improvement. Veteran observers of the college game may recall State College QB John Isley of the late 1970's; Garcia knows a similar form.

    Isley had a propensity for the deep throw. His 55 yard strike to Lee Jukes in the '78 Tangerine Bowl reminiscent of his deep overthrow down the left sideline late with the Pack down 12-7 at Penn State: Deep, accurate, high-arcing bombs that can turn a game around against a favoured opponent. Unfortunately for Coach Houston, the rebuilt ECU offensive line will not give Garcia that kind of time.


    Michigan skipper Jim Harbaugh will miss the contest having been suspended by the NCAA for improper hamburger documentation. The only possible chink in the Michigan coaching armour is second year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, who has yet to develop an effective pro-style blitz/pressure package for the Wolverines. This will sometimes result in deep zone coverage that can be beat.

    Watch Michigan all year and observe how many receivers get open downfield past the corners. Opponents who find the time often see the bomb landing deep if routes properly schemed. There just won't be the time for ECU. Maybe, maybe they get one shot deep downfield each half.

    Otherwise Garcia has to hit his checkoffs in stride. The speed differential will be like nothing ECU has ever seen; the game atmosphere is not possible to replicate in practise. This is the biggest stadium in the country and third largest in the world; it is a football environment unlike any other for the visiting eleven.

    Garcia cannot turn the ball over, especially trying to make the heroic plays out of nothing. If ECU pulls the huge upset it won't be because the guy threw the ball 40 times. A much more desirable mark for his stat line is zero turnovers because giving them the short field is what kills you against Michigan.

    ECU has gone seven straight games without a turnover dating back to last October.

    Grind out a couple first downs, eat some clock and then punt them deep. The ECU defence is good enough on its own to hold Michigan under 34 points as long as every other Wolverine drive is not starting in plus territory after a turnover or short kick.

    The key to ECU covering this number is the defence because the offensive line will be under pressure the entire game. Much heralded South Carolina State linebacker transfer B.J. Davis has to step up and make an impact from the first play. The ECU defensive line can play with the blue and maize big boys for a half but depth will become a question late.

    The one facet where Michigan is flawed is on special teams. They are vulnerable now with new feet kicking, punting and returning. Early season games are where the kinks are worked out on special teams -- fiascoes can occur there to any unit if enough pressure is applied before the proper form takes.

    Aggressive teams over-pursue. When the smoke clears ECU special teams guru Dauost likely to be the hero or a zero. For the Pirates to pull the big upset they need a special teams score. Michigan has too much back-up speed on coverage for a deep run back but there is one area they are vulnerable.

    Michigan does not punt often but when they do gaps result in the protection as a strong unbalanced wing-rush is applied. Take a look at how Penn State schemes them there. ECU is good enough to block a punt against MIchigan if the defence can find a way to hold them deep. That kind of play can dial up everything the underdog needs to stay in the game.


    For our first call of the season we take EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY (plus 34 and the hook) for two units. We will remain at the one, two or three unit level the entire season until the bowl games. Our goal is to be ten units ahead by December.

Michigan 34  •  ECU 19

    ECU can win this game. They will easily cover the number.