Broadsword calling Danny Boy: Rest not your laurels TEXANS (+9 and the hook), PACKERS (+10); BILLS, CHIEFS D/ST (+450) each | Eastern North Carolina Now

Look out football, here we come,
Houston Oilers, Number One.

Houston has the Oilers, the greatest football team.
We take the ball from goal to goal like no one's ever seen.
We're in the air, we're on the ground - always in control,
And when you say the Oilers, you're talking Super Bowl.

'Cause we're the Houston Oilers, Houston Oilers,
Houston Oilers, Number One.
Yes, we're the Houston Oilers, Houston Oilers,
Houston Oilers, Number One.

We've got the offense, we've got the defense,
We give the other team no hope.
'Cause we're the Houston Oilers, Houston Oilers,
You know we're gonna hold the rope.

Yes, we're the Houston Oilers, Houston Oilers,
Houston Oilers, Number One.
Yes, we're the Houston Oilers, Houston Oilers,
Houston Oilers, Number One. - Mack Hayes


The Traveller and her Dad review the run-stopping equation.: Above.     Click image to enlarge.
    With the Wildcard Weekend in the rear view mirror, the NFL Divisional round approaches and the question arises: What advantage is gained / lost for the two bye teams playing with a week's rest? Both the Ravens and 49'ers open the playoffs at home against Wildcard underdog winners after a bye week. Does rest outweigh rustiness in terms of beating The Man's second round numbers?

    We need to find out as with the Steelers and a couple props diving, while the Lions made it, we open 1-1 in this space and down 4.8 units while we still hold a half unit of LIONS (+750) to take the NFC crown. These D/ST (defensive / special teams TD scores) props are high-octane plays that burn hot -- one way or the other -- and we will continue with the form. In the meantime we ask Farnell what his data base reveals toward the previous question.


    "Generally speaking the team with the bye week in the playoffs is priced toward the rest advantage. Both the 49ers and Ravens opened as ten point favourites at home after the bye. Baltimore has since dropped a hook. The NFL expanded to 12 playoff teams in the 1990-91 season and for the 30 year period following until 2020 teams off a bye week were 64-55-3 ATS (against the spread). This represents marginal value but is a winning trend."

    So we want to hammer the 49ers and Ravens. Right?

    "Not so fast my friend, as a TV guy likes to say. Both the 49ers and Ravens rested most of their starters in the last regular season game. We took a deep dive into the stats trying to determine what happens when a bye team rests their starters the last game before the bye. From 2002-2020 favoured teams in this scenario were 5-14 ATS. Almost half of them (nine) lost straight-up; there is an intensity attenuation risk in these guys sitting out two straight weeks before their playoff opener."

    "You can't lay the points with Bal'mer or Frisco. Either be on the dogs or pass. Our D/ST spread garnered two hits with Houston and Green Bay both notching the prop and we continue to recommend this approach. This week's D/ST prices range from 49'ers (+290) to Packers (+800). Both the Chiefs and Bills are (+450) and we like that combo the best in terms of hitting the window. Each team has committed 28 turnovers this season; the numbers tell us we have value here."

    Value? We need winners, Man. We have been getting chewed up of late. What is the plan?

    "The plan is not to be whining about losing streaks and to work harder. Look at each game and figure out what will happen first. Look at the spread second. No one wants to jump on the Texans and the Packers against the big names; however the trend line indicates that is the move. We just want to have enough dry powder at the end to hammer the Super Bowl safety at around (+1000); we do that by picking winners."


    Sounds like a plan as our calls here are the TEXANS (+nine and the hook) for three units and the PACKERS (+10) for one unit. With the D/ST we will take two units each of BILLS (+450) and CHIEFS (+450). We are getting out there on the limb a little and need results heading into the Conference finals a week following; the technical analysis reveals each of these moves has superior value and in heavy fog instruments-only will deliver.

TEXANS    23  •  RAVENS    21

49'ERS    33  •  PACKERS    30

   Farnell reminds us that the safety recorded in the Bucs / Eagles game Monday evening was the 1,222nd to occur in American professional football since 1920, as he prepares us to once again hammer the Super Bowl safety prop. It has been ten years since that one has hit.

   "Now for ten years we've been on our own, and moss grows fat on a rollin' stone..."