Publisher's Note: This post appears here courtesy of the
The Daily Wire. The author of this post is
Brecca Stoll.
With Maine and Michigan on the rocks, Democrats are increasingly focusing on the American plains as an alternative path to win Senate control.
Democrats are hoping that an overwhelmingly favorable political environment will put solidly red states that once seemed like pipe dreams in play. And they're hoping that a staunchly Republican constituency - American farmers - could help put them over the edge amid economic struggles exacerbated by the Trump administration's tariff regime.
As things currently stand, Republicans are still favorites to hold Senate seats in Iowa and Nebraska. But prediction markets put their odds in the 60-70% range in each, close enough to cause some anxiety for the GOP. Democrats are even beginning to talk about Kansas, though that remains a greater longshot. Cook Political Report has moved Iowa into the
"tossup" category, while Nebraska and Kansas are
"Likely R."
Nebraska and Iowa rank among the top five soybean-producing states in the country, and have traditionally sold over 50% of their crop to China. China responded to Trump's tariffs with a 13% import duty for soybeans, leading Brazil to overtake the United States as China's top soybean supplier last fall.
Farmers are also seeing rising costs for fertilizer. The global fertilizer index shows the wholesale fertilizer price has increased 84.1% in the last two years, worsening since the start of the war in Iran.
A May 2026 Fox poll showed Trump's support across rural America slipping into negative territory, driven by farm struggles.
The farm economy has been under pressure. The American Farm Bureau reported that Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025. Costs for fertilizer, seeds, and equipment are up.
Yet despite these challenges, many farmers remain supportive of Trump.
"As farmers because of tariffs we are hurting, however, for the long term if something doesn't happen the country is going to fall," one Nebraskan farmer told The Daily Wire.
"He's trying to make changes for the better."
A farmer from southern Illinois echoed that sentiment.
"I don't think farmers are going to start voting Democratic. Under both the Biden and Trump administrations, we've dealt with low grain prices alongside higher diesel costs. Farmers have been squeezed by lower commodity prices and rising input costs. The difference today is that fertilizer costs are higher than they were under the last administration, but we've also received some relief through the Big Beautiful Bill's Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. It's not a cure-all, but it does help offset some of the pressure farmers are facing."
The farmers' views highlight the challenge facing Democrats. Farmers across the Midwest are experiencing real economic strain, but while the frustration is real, it has not translated into a mass movement towards the other side of the aisle.
NBC interviewed 13 Iowa farmers and found that while many were hurting from burdening rising costs, the majority said they don't regret supporting Trump.
"It's going to get ugly for a while, but in the long run, it's going to help us," said one farmer.
"Trump is the first president we've had in a long time that will stand up to China, because China just runs all over us."
The tension between the tariffs and prices persists, though. Just last week, Trump announced he is allowing a massive increase of beef imports to try and bring prices down, upsetting some in the agricultural sector.
The White House argues that Trump's policies are addressing the challenges farmers face. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said,
"President Trump is helping our agriculture industry by negotiating new trade deals, lowering input costs, bolstering the farm safety net, doubling the death tax exemption, ending taxes on rural property loan interest, creating rural opportunity zones, and more."
The administration has also sought to communicate those benefits directly to producers. It launched
"OnlyFarms," a federal platform featuring an interactive map that allows farmers and ranchers to calculate projected savings from Trump's agricultural agenda. Trump also invited hundreds of farmers and ranchers to the White House in March. Speaking from a balcony overlooking a gold-painted tractor, he assured attendees that they
"once again have a true friend and champion in the Oval Office."
Still, Democrats seem determined to expand the map to America's heartland. Chuck Schumer has staved off the DSA insurgency and gotten moderate-presenting nominees in Iowa and Kansas, and in Nebraska, the party is backing an independent candidate to try and shirk the horrific brand of the Democrats.
More battlegrounds mean a need for more money though, and an inconvenient fact remains for Democrats: the DNC is broke, and the RNC is flush with cash.
