Broadsword calling Danny Boy: Oregon State at Cal Bears (+9 and the hook); U.S 10 yr yield hits 4.8 percent! | Eastern North Carolina Now

She's a good girl, loves her mama
Loves Jesus and America too
She's a good girl, is crazy 'bout Elvis
Loves horses and her boyfriend too

And it's a long day livin' in Reseda
There's a freeway runnin' through the yard
And I'm a bad boy, 'cause I don't even miss her
I'm a bad boy for breakin' her heart

And I'm free
Free fallin'
Yeah, I'm free
Free fallin'

And all the vampires walkin' through the valley
Move west down Ventura Boulevard (Ventura Boulevard)
And all the bad boys are standin' in the shadows
And the good girls are home with broken hearts - Tom Petty


The Bishop holds court as ECU delivers the mail. Carter-Finley Stadium -- nineteen-eighty something: Above.     Click image to enlarge.
    The arrival of October signals not only a shift in weather and the fortunes of Western investors, but also the transition to conference play in college football. The month features classic rivalries re-emerging, with longstanding foes battling in match ups often over a century old.

    Familiarity breeds contempt, whether in the bond market that saw the U.S. 10 year note hit 4.8% Tuesday, or this final season of the PAC-12 as old foes battle one last time. Contemptible the only way to describe Mississippi State as they flamed out against the Tide. That was not a strong call here -- once behind, the Bulldogs were doomed by inferior QB play as we fall to 5-1 and up 5.8 units in this space.

    (Meanwhile, Barton went over the mountains to stun Tusculum 17-14. The Bulldogs climb to 4-1 during their remarkable championship run as the defence has stiffened in Wilson, NC.)

    With Westerby fumbling the ball on the Mississippi State call, we are pleased to see the return of the ENC scribe, Farnell, to our handicapping ranks. Having survived a recent malaria attack, he is primed to destroy The Man's opening Rocktober card.

    Alas, Farnell with five games he likes this week, which will just not do. Less is more, we remind the lad. When laying 11-10 a record of 2-1 is ten percent worse than going 1-0. We will make a deal with Farnell, such that once we get ten units ahead we will go for it. Having ten units for the NFL playoffs and March Madness likely to have us most ready for the epic moon shot of quam.

    So please, Old Man -- like that December night on the Prishtina bridge back in '98 -- one shot, one kill.

    ***********

    What the heck is that guy talking about? Prishtina bridge? Is that some kind of fancy pool shot? Our game these days is college football, Your Majesty. And with that 10 year yield indicating complete collapse approaching at flank speed, maybe we should pick more games and let London get ready for what's coming.


    Nah. Let's stick with the plan. If it ain't broke don't fix it -- one winner coming up.

    The Oregon State Beavers travel to Berkeley Saturday evening to take on Cal. Long time readers will be familiar with our understanding of Cal football. Now we have another of what is likely to be the last match up of PAC 12 teams with the conference break-up.

    Cal is catching nine and the hook against an Oregon State Jekyll and Hyde squad; they are one team at home and a completely different one on the road. That the Beavers are such heavy chalk a reflection of the Cal two-headed QB rotation. State College transfer Finley yet to show the form he displayed in taking down Carolina (27-41 2 TD) and the mighty Maye last season, but can be effective when not making terrible decisions.

    This season he is prone to generating bad choices and last week's game against Arizona State part of the reason the price is this high. Jackson V a much better runner and RPO spark plug and hopefully sees the majority of signal calling action.

    Cal is shaky in defending the forward pass but we don't see Beaver QB Uiagalelei torching the Bears secondary by having an arm like Penix to take advantage of their coverage package. We are big believers in Penix at Washington with the Huskies being an integral part of our futures progamme.

    In laymen's terms, last week's aberration impacts this week's price beyond the true value. And if there is one place you love to catch extra points it is Memorial Stadium on an October Saturday night.

    This game will be about run-stopping defence and special teams if the QBs play to form. If each team can slow the other's rushing attack then Cal has a big edge at punter and the possibility of a field position battle emanates. This move predicated on that scenario developing and the price being wrong.

    The game opened Oregon State minus eight and is now the current nine and the hook. Two things The Man despises is moving to a key number mid-week (that would be 10 here) and refunding tickets on a push. Barring some injury during the week this is the best Cal price one is likely to see.

    Our call here is the CAL BEARS (plus nine and the hook) for two units. Saturday night, in a crumbling Memorial Stadium, before ten thousand highly intoxicated Cal undergrads is an atmosphere the Beavers will have trouble tunneling through.

    Week two we had Cal and the points versus Auburn; much of what was written then applies here. This will be a low scoring tilt despite the high powered offences on statistical paper -- points represent a premium in that sort of game.

CAL BEARS    14  •  OREGON STATE    13

    The past weekend was a tough one for ECU and Duke punters and their bankrolls, with the Durham disaster not one for the faint of heart. As James Taylor tells us:

    "We got to close our eyes -- cut up our losses into doable doses, ration our tears and sighs."

    Cal Bears like the venerable Messerschmitt 110 in that you don't want them on the road trying to bomb London. Instead, you commit them to their utmost utility in defending the homeland.

    On paper the ME 110 was no match for the B-17 with ten .50 cal Maschinengewehr, but in the skies over Schweinfurt on Black Thursday (80th anniversary Saturday next week) the twin engine fighter tore into the U.S. 8th Air Force with a vengeance. A pair of Shrage Musik 20 mm cannon at home beats ten .50 cals on the road every time.


    The Cal Bears to deliver that same blind-side attack Saturday night as the spirit of Heinz Wolfgang Schnaufer rolls through the Memorial Stadium Luft. Early birds will get the best number on this one so don't wait.

    The 10 year price quoted above is what is known as a bad indicator. Act accordingly.