Publisher's Note: This post appears here courtesy of the Carolina Journal. The author of this post is CJ Staff.
After a round of Democratic gains in municipal elections across North Carolina this week, political observers are asking whether the results point to a broader shift in momentum ahead of the 2026 elections, or simply reflect local dynamics in blue-leaning areas.
Adding to the discussion, the John Locke Foundation has released its latest Civitas Partisan Index (CPI), a measure of how North Carolina's legislative districts lean politically compared to the state as a whole. The 2026 CPI suggests that, while Democrats may be gaining energy in cities and suburbs, Republicans maintain the upper hand in the state legislature.
Dr. Andy Jackson, director of the Civitas Center for Public Integrity and developer of the index, says the most notable partisan shifts since the 2024 CPI were largely in line with expectations.
"Republicans gained ground in rural areas, particularly in the East and Sandhills regions, while Democrats advanced in urban areas," Jackson said.
"Democrats also gained in the mountains, and not just in Asheville - Republican-leaning districts in Henderson County and the far west have become more competitive."
The 2026 CPI shows Republicans maintaining a structural advantage in both chambers of the General Assembly. In the Senate, Republicans hold 25 seats rated
"safe" or
"likely," meaning they would need to win just one more seat to retain their majority. In the House, Republicans have 41
"safe" seats and 10
"likely" seats, suggesting their majority remains secure barring a significant Democratic surge.
The index identifies a handful of competitive districts, three toss-ups in the Senate and seven in the House, that could determine whether the GOP reaches or loses its supermajority. The analysis also notes that midterm elections under a Republican president could present tailwinds for Democrats seeking to expand their reach.
Jackson noted that the biggest single shift occurred in House District 47 in Robeson County, which moved six percentage points toward Republicans. Few other districts shifted more than two points, signaling relative stability across most of the map.
Setting the strategy
Asked about the strategic challenges each party faces heading into 2026, Jackson said the dynamics favor Democrats slightly this cycle.
"Republicans will be on the defensive in 2026, not only because it is a midterm election, but also because several districts held by Republicans on the periphery of urban areas have shifted toward Democrats," he explained.
"Democrats will have opportunities to pick up seats in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metro regions."
The CPI also raises broader questions about long-term political alignment in the state. Some analysts see evidence of a slow but steady partisan sorting. Republicans consolidating rural and outer suburban (or
"exurban") dominance, while Democrats strengthen their urban and suburban base. Jackson said that pattern remains intact for now.
"Most of the changes have been in the same direction we've seen in the recent past," he said.
"Democrats have made some inroads into near-urban counties such as Alamance and Cabarrus, which will put more districts in play in 2026. I expect this pattern to continue through 2028, but it may change as we enter a post-Trump era after that."
Beyond state legislative races, this week's Democratic wins in municipal elections across the state have sparked discussion of emerging trends potentially impacting 2026 outcomes with the state's new congressional maps, potentially shifting toward a 9-5 partisan split rather than 10-4 or 11-3. Jackson said the current map still favors Republicans, but there is room for movement.
"Republicans are likely to win in 11 congressional districts in 2026, but Democrats could win in the First, Third, and 11th districts if they have an especially strong year," he said.
"That is one more than under the previous map because Republicans had to make the Third more competitive in order to increase their chance of winning in the First."
Also in this week's elections beyond North Carolina, Democratic gains in New York, Virginia, and New Jersey have fueled speculation about broader national momentum heading into 2026. Jackson said the results reflect both existing blue-state strength and potentially growing confidence among Democrats.
"It's a little of both," he said.
"Democrats almost always win in New Jersey and Virginia when a Republican is in the White House, but some of those wins were by larger margins than expected. While I wouldn't read too much into those results, they will boost Democrats' confidence and may hurt Republicans' candidate recruitment for 2026 - who wants to put their lives on hold to run in races they are unlikely to win?"
The full CPI report, including detailed maps of all legislative districts, is available at johnlocke.org.
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