The Observer was right when we tried to tell our Commissioners they were overbuilding schools in some places and under-building in others | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.

New study shows BCS losing students until 2021, but that's only part of the story

    In January 2008, we published the results of our study of the facilities needs in Beaufort County Schools. The title of the article was The Future for Beaufort County Schools. The subtitle was "Why most of the bond funds were used in the wrong places." In this, and a number of other articles we published on school facilities the theme was unmistakable: Capacity would significantly exceed enrollment in some areas while others would be overcrowded. The current Gang of Four did not listen. The same group that wasted over $20 million on schools is now the group that is planning an unneeded jail that will waste over $20 million dollars and leave one of the schools in the worst condition overcrowded.

    At the time (2008) the majority of the Beaufort County Board of Commissioners, who are legally charged with oversight of school spending, was composed of much the same people who are now pushing for the new jail. They failed to plan properly for the school building program and they are now failing to plan properly for a new jail.

    And the wasted school bond spending followed an even worse catastrophe, as we have documented: When Southside High School was built, according to the Division of School Planning's data, the cost per student per year made it the most expensive high school that had ever been built in the State of North Carolina. That was because it opened only at about 50% capacity, but even on a per foot basis it was one of the most expensive school every built up until that time.

    The accuracy of our thesis on school facilities was just re-confirmed Wednesday (4-9-14) by the Department of Public Instruction in releasing the latest population projections for the state and individual school systems.

    The Civitas Institute summarizes the state level trends this way:

    In the next decade, the number of K-12 public school students is estimated to decline by more than 4,000 students. While some counties will continue to grow, approximately two-thirds of all North Carolina counties will decline in population over the next decade. An analysis of the demographic changes shows North Carolina is becoming a state with two types of LEAs: those that are growing and those that are in population decline. Wise public policy requires that we acknowledge differences, stop forcing districts into formulas that don't serve them well, and grant LEAs greater flexibility to educate their students.

    The breakout of the data for Beaufort County shows that we are in that type of LEA that is declining in enrollment.

    You can review Beaufort's numbers on Page 7 of the report. Briefly stated, the data project that Beaufort's student population will continue to decline through 2021 when it will bottom out and begin a slow increase. But even then, the total student count will not return to current levels anytime in the foreseeable future.

    According to these data, the peak in student population was reached in 2009 at 7247. It is 6997 this year and the decline is projected to continue to a low of 6252 in 2021. By 2024 it will climb to 6560, still an entire school less than in the current year.

    The "bubble" will travel through the grades differently. The K-3 population peaked out in 2008 at 2354 and will decline to 1806 in 2021. The K-5 population peaked in 2009 at 3411 and will decline to 2752 in 2021. The middle grades (6-8) will peak this year at 1737 and decline to 1368 in 2024. The high school grades peaked at 2006 at 2213 and will decline to 1917 in 2021.

    What these data do not show is the intra-system shift. Other studies have shown that school in the eastern portions of the county, both north and south of the river will have the greatest declines, while school in the western sections of the county on both sides of the river will have the greatest growth.

    The overriding conclusion that one must draw from these data is that our County Commissioners did a terrible job of planning the school facilities paid for by the $33 million school bonds and have continued to use poor planning with annual capital outlay funds. The two schools in the worst physical condition (Tayloe and Chocowinity Middle School are in the fastest growing sections of the county and two of the newest school (Northeast and Snowden) are in the areas losing students the most. The exact opposite of the way it should have been done.

    Now the same group of people are planning a new jail using the county's total population statistics to project jail needs for the next twenty years. But anyone with the least bit of common sense knows that the jail population is not driven by the total population, but rather by the 18-35 male population. Ask any of these commissioners pushing for a large jail how the population segment most associated with inmates compares to the total population and see what they tell you.

    Bless us and save us.