Treasurer Retirement Surprises Political Insiders | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: The author of this post is Dan Way, who is an associate editor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

Republican and Democratic analysts expect competitive statewide 2016 contests

    RALEIGH -Republicans are highly unlikely to lose majority control of either legislative chamber in the 2016 General Assembly elections, and the state treasurer's seat is expected to be a hotly contested race that Republicans are hoping to flip into their corner, political analysts from each major party say.

    Both Dallas Woodhouse, North Carolina Republican Party executive director, and Thomas Mills, a Democratic political consultant and editor of the Carrboro-based PoliticsNC blog, said they were caught off guard by Democratic Treasurer Janet Cowell's announcement that she would not seek re-election.

    "I would say the surprise is the treasurer's race opening up," Woodhouse said. "The open seats naturally get your attention because the likelihood of success is higher there, and that will be reflected in the [quality of] people who run."

    Woodhouse expects to have "a good healthy primary race with a lot of candidates." Several potential candidates have spoken to him, but he would not identify them for publication.

    Some Republicans whose names have been floated as possible contenders include Department of Commerce Assistant Secretary Dale Folwell, former House Majority Leader Edgar Starnes of Caldwell County, Sen. Tamara Barringer, R-Wake, and Bruce VonCannon, a former candidate for the state's 6th U.S. Congressional District, said one political insider.

    Traditionally it has been extremely difficult to unseat an incumbent Council of State officeholder, Woodhouse said. The last time he recalls that happening was in 1992 when longtime Labor Commissioner John Brooks lost in the Democratic primary. Brooks lost a year after an Imperial Foods chicken processing plant in Hamlet caught fire, killing 25 and injuring 54.

    Woodhouse believes Gov. Pat McCrory's leadership, the General Assembly fixing the unemployment system while repaying the federal unemployment debt early, eliminating the state's budget deficit and restraining spending, all make the treasurer's race "an excellent opportunity for us that maybe we didn't anticipate a few months ago."

    "I think it will be competitive," and both parties will have primaries, Mills said. "On the Democratic side I've heard [former state senator] Gene McLaurin's name being floated," along with Raleigh election law attorney Michael Weisel, among others.

    In an Oct. 13 email, Weisel praised Cowell's tenure, noting he ran for treasurer in 1996 and 2008. "As events unfold, I will continue to speak with supporters and consult with my family, to determine a future course of action," he said.

    "As contentious as that General Assembly was within the Republican Party, I have to think there are people who want to stay in politics, but would sure like to make a leap up, and not necessarily out," Mills said of GOP interest in the treasurer's position.

    Cowell's "surprising" decision happened so fast, "and with the primary so soon, you've got to be somebody who's ready to move quickly" to win the seat, Mills said. "You've got to start now because there's almost certainly going to be a primary" for an open Council of State seat.

    Both Woodhouse and Mills believe the General Assembly moving the primary from May to March 15 might affect the elections landscape.

    "I think the early primary necessitates people making decisions about what they need to do sooner than they normally would. That's not really a party issue, it's just a reality that candidate filing closes before Christmas ... and I think some people have to get ready," Woodhouse said.

    "There's been a number of retirements in the General Assembly. I don't know that that's unexpected, but that sometimes happens after a lengthy legislative session, even one that's enormously successful like this one," he said. "We'll have some good healthy primaries, which is not bad."

    The early primary could help Democratic gubernatorial candidate Roy Cooper in gaining statewide recognition that he needs to challenge Gov. Pat McCrory, assuming both win their primaries, Woodhouse said. But that momentum could be lost during the long stretch to the November election amid fundraising obligations.

    With 170 members in the legislature, "it just seems natural" some would step down, Mills said, agreeing that overtime sessions tend to discourage some incumbents from re-election campaigns.

    The General Assembly vote late in the session to move the primary date up "throws a lot of uncertainty" into the mix, Mills said. "It's hard to do a lot of organizing and raising money" from now until Thanksgiving, a traditional political lull.

    "The bigger question gets to be trying to figure out what the electorate's going to look like" as both parties try to determine who their presidential nominees will be after Super Tuesday on March 1, Mills said. If the parties have a candidate, North Carolina primary turnout likely would be low. If the race is still undetermined, turnout probably would be high.

    "If it's still competitive, Hillary [Clinton] at the top of the ticket helps women Democratic candidates" in legislative, statewide, and congressional races, including former state Rep. Deborah Ross in the U.S. Senate race, Mills said. That is because women make up more than 60 percent of Democrats' primary vote. Women 45 years and older overwhelmingly favor Clinton, and they are a substantial part of that 60 percent.

    Woodhouse said "there is virtually no chance" the Republicans would lose majority control of either legislative chamber, and there is a good chance they would retain their supermajority.

    "Our candidates are good, they're well funded, and they've accomplished things," Woodhouse said. He expects Republican candidates will line up behind the $2 billion Connect NC bond next year that would generate funds for construction costs and infrastructure without raising taxes.

    "I would bet the Republicans lose a handful of seats because they have just about as many as they can get," Mills said, but he doesn't expect either chamber to flip. The Democrats' goal is to erase the veto-proof supermajority in at least one of the two chambers, and elect a Democratic governor.

    But if a Democrat is elected governor without eliminating at least one supermajority, Republicans could override a veto.

    "Hell," Mills said, "they overrode McCrory's over and over again."