Turning Attention to the Campaign Ahead | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: The author of this post is Rick Henderson, who is managing editor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

    RALEIGH     Full disclosure: I don't have a "favorite" candidate in the current presidential contest. The contender most intriguing to me got out of the race about the time it started. (His initials are "Scott Walker.")

    And for a host of reasons - temperament, experience, ignorance of basic civics, business failures, and character, for starters - articulated by others better than I could, I have no plans to board the Trump Train.

    On Facebook Tuesday, I posted: "This day feels a lot like the one in 1996, when it became obvious that Bob Dole was the inevitable Republican nominee. Except I feel a lot more than 20 years older. And Bob Dole was an honorable man."

    With that said, let me share a few somewhat serious (and not-as-serious) observations about the primary season, and several prospects for the coming months.

Presidential race

    During Trump's Tuesday victory speech, he lavished praise on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan. The media reported it as a Trump pivot to show he can unify the Republican Party for the general election, but I wonder how his fans in the populist talk radio/cable news/political world - who called McConnell and Ryan Republicans In Name Only - will defend to their audiences The Donald and his new BFFs?

    Trump's "self-financed" campaign actually has been underwritten by the media, and that soon will change. The New York Times reports that mediaQuant, a firm that puts a cash value on the amount of media coverage candidates receive, says Trump already has benefited from $2 billion in "free" media, or five times as much as John McCain spent on his entire 2008 campaign. The free coverage will start dwindling as primaries become less frequent, so Trump will have to spend his own money or rely on donors (and he said he would not do that).

    How much money does Trump have? He's refused to release his tax returns, leading 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney to claim Trump is cash-poor. Despite Trump's claim that he made $362 million last year, an analysis in Fortune suggests his income may have been closer to $150 million - and to self-finance his campaign, he must spend cash or borrow against liquid assets, not real estate or "brand names."

    If indeed Trump can raise only a couple hundred million for the primary and general elections, he may have to abandon his pledge not to take money from political action committees, angering supporters. Without that money, however, he might not make it out of Cleveland with the GOP nomination against a better-funded, better-organized Cruz campaign. We should learn late this summer, or perhaps this fall, if Trump's wealth is little more than numbers on pieces of paper ... and not the spendable kind.

Governor's race

    Democrats who think the governor's race is Roy Cooper's to lose might reflect on how he opened Tuesday's primary victory speech. After introducing his family and thanking his supporters, the attorney general's first ploy was to join at the hip (rhetorically) Trump and Gov. Pat McCrory. This was Cooper's first chance to speak, without filters, to potential voters statewide ... and he handed McCrory a campaign talking point.

    The governor always has been comfortable playing the role of independent negotiator, someone above petty partisanship, representing the general interests of all North Carolinians rather than some Capital City Cabal. (That's his argument, though your views of it may differ.)

    He consistently says that the "Carolina Comeback" he championed has taken hold despite Washington politicians and regulators, members of his own party in the General Assembly on occasion - and the actions of one Roy Cooper, the attorney general of North Carolina, who has refused to participate in a series of legal challenges to federal regulations.

    McCrory can and probably will argue that no matter who is elected president, he'll be "fighting for us." And he'll have a largely positive record to defend.

    McCrory was a better candidate in 2012 than he was in 2008, and he may be an even better candidate this year. Cooper may stumble in the early phases of this general election race. He hasn't faced a competitive campaign since 2000, when he (arguably) stole the election from Republican attorney Dan Boyce by running (again arguably) illegal and defamatory ads against Boyce, his father Gene, and their law partners. A lawsuit against Cooper and his campaign committee bounced around in court for more than a decade, and in 2014 Cooper finally issued an apology to the Boyces and their partners and paid a settlement.

    Cooper will face potentially challenging engagements with voters and the media regularly over the next seven months. It's an atmosphere he hasn't encountered as attorney general, and how well he shakes off any rust will suggest how he will do in a race that will draw national scrutiny.

Treasurer's race

    There may be hope of one edifying election contest, however: the race for state treasurer. Incumbent Janet Cowell is not seeking re-election, and the major party contenders are impressive. Democrat Dan Blue III, an attorney and former investment banker, and Republican Dale Folwell, a former state lawmaker and state Employment Security Division chief, are smart, knowledgeable, and well-versed in the intricacies of public finance. They understand the potential risks to taxpayers and public employees of a woefully underfunded State Health Plan. Folwell also makes a solid argument that the public pension plan is much less solvent than conventional measures show.

    They'll have different priorities and policy prescriptions, but their contest will be among the most important this fall for the long-term fiscal health of the state.

Congressional chaos

    The smart money says the congressional primary will not take place June 7. The congressional district map passed last month by the General Assembly and sent to a three-judge U.S. District Court panel eliminated race as a factor in the drawing of districts and instead focused on the partisan goal of giving Republicans the best chance of maintaining a 10-3 advantage in the state's U.S. House delegation. Problem is, the panel throwing out the 2011 map that relied "too heavily" on race (in the court's view) suggested that a map drawn purely to enhance partisanship could violate federal law as well.

    The three-judge panel is reviewing legal documents. It may let the map stand for the current election cycle, but since the judges threw out the last congressional map after candidates had filed for Tuesday's primary and thousands of absentee ballots had been cast, this panel may have no qualms about interfering with ongoing elections. The judges could toss the new map, and unless their ruling is overturned on appeal, the court may draw our districts - meaning, a new filing period, new ballots, and a congressional primary that will take place closer to Labor Day than Memorial Day.

    Enjoy your summer!
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