Punished House members may not roll over and behave themselves | Eastern NC Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.

    There's high drama going down in Washington. Of course the Big One is the kabuki dance being played over the "fiscal cliff." As we've said before, all that is pure show in our opinion. We all know how it's going to turn out. Obama's going to get most of what he wants in the form of more money to spend and all we will see in "spending cuts" will be smoke and mirrors of the rate of increase not being quite as great in the short run as it would otherwise be. And there will be no major reforms in entitlements. So when the dust settles on the negotiations the only issue will be how much more taxes will go up and who gets the "credit/blame" for saving us from the "cliff." This you can bank on...the spending will continue to be more and more.

    But while all this is going on, and in advance of the next "cliff"--which is raising the debt ceiling--a sideshow is taking place. We previously reported on the sacking of Walter B. Jones from the prestigious Financial Services Committee. Now there are rumors that Jones and some others may be thinking about retaliating against the House leadership.

    Roll Call is reporting that Jones is considering signing a discharge petition being pushed by Nancy Pelosi to force a floor vote on the Senate's proposed "fiscal cliff" bill. You can read about that by clicking here.

    There are two issues here. The first is the discharge petition itself. The second and potentially much more explosive one is how the Republicans in the House would vote on the Senate proposal. There is some speculation that the closer we get to the deadline (December 31 if nothing is done to extend the current tax rates and stave off the sequestration-spending reductions) that Republicans may find themselves behind the 8-ball and made to look like they are the ones to impose tax hikes on the middle class. Thus, the prospect of Boehner being able to block Pelosi even with his majority is not a certainty. Of course all that changes if Boehner pulls out bill to extend the current middle class tax rates and passes that in the House it would then force the Democrats' hand on the debt ceiling if the Republicans are willing to take the sequestration spending cuts.

    We seriously doubt that Boehner will be faced with such a rebellion. It is just as good a possibility that he will be faced with a conservative rebellion against conceding to Obama's demand to increase revenue.

    But Jones is a different animal. He just handily rebuffed the most serious challenge he has had in recent years and won re-election by a 2:1 margin. He is close to retirement and may not feel inclined to bow to the leadership. His job is secure, probably for as long as he wants it and what committees he serves on makes little difference to many people in the Third Congressional District. One source with close ties to Jones' staff tells us that there is even the possibility that he will switch and become a Democrat. He was once a Democrat and could probably win re-election as easily as a Democrat as a Republican in the Third District. Our source tells us that whether he would switch parties would likely depend on what kind of offer he got from Pelosi. We have not determined if such maneuvering is going on to get him to switch parties.

    What we are confident of is that Jones is not worried about job security. In fact, depending on how the "fiscal cliff" charade ends up, Jones may well indeed improve is electoral invincibility by being seen as standing up to the House leadership that caved to Obama.

    On the other hand, if Boehner "wins" the battle with Obama the chances of a rebellion either in the ranks or from Republicans who would challenge key Republicans in primaries in 2014 would become slim and none. But Jones would probably still be invincible in 2014 if he chooses to run again, either as a Democrat or as a Republican.

    If there is a rebellion against Boehner either from the moderate Republicans who want "compromise" or from the radical right then Boehner may indeed need Jones more than Jones needs Boehner and Cantor.

    It could be interesting. Stay tuned and we'll keep you informed.