Press Release:
Good Morning Everyone,
Recent weather updates included minor timeline changes to Debbie's track along the eastern US. While forecast models continue to become more aligned, there are still unknown variables that could determine the expected impacts for Beaufort County. Below is a summary of what we know and what we are still watching for.
What We Know
While the forecasted pace of Debbie's forward progress has slowed some with the latest update, the various forecast models continue to agree on the general path it will take along the eastern US. Debbie is still expected to intensify to Tropical Storm or Category 1 hurricane strength as it travels up the west coast of Florida today and tomorrow. Debbie is forecasted to make landfall in the northeast pan handle (near Tallahassee) early Monday morning and cross the northern part of Florida / southern Georgia Monday and Tuesday before re-entering the Atlantic just south of Savannah. Most forecast models suggest that Debbie will slow significantly / stall off the US coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will allow it to grow in size and regain strength.
What We are Still Watching
Tuesday is where we start to see some differences between the various forecast models, mainly in regard to where Debbie will stall and what direction it will travel afterwards. Some models, to include the Euro and GFS are currently showing that Debbie will stall in the Atlantic, between Savannah Ga. and Charleston SC. Other models, suggest that the stall could occur inland over SC, or slightly south toward the Florida / Georgia line.
Models also differ on the track that Debbie will take following the stall. The Euro and GFS suggest that Debbie will make a second landfall near Charleston SC early Thursday morning and begin a slow northwest track across inland SC and southern NC through Friday. (This track would pass through Augusta, Columbia and Charlotte.) This northwest track would shift to the northeast early Saturday morning and accelerate, with Debbie crossing through central part of NC during the day. (Greensboro / Raleigh) Other models suggest that Debbie will not make a 2nd landfall near Charleston and travel northeast along the US coast, crossing over eastern NC on Thursday. (A Morehead, New Bern, Washington, OBX track.)
Forecasted Impacts For Beaufort County
It is important to remember that impacts from a tropical storm / hurricane can be felt well beyond the centerline track often displayed on our weather screens....and this is certainly true for Debbie. Regardless of the variables discussed above, Debbie is currently forecasted to bring several days of impacts to our area as summarized below.
- Rain
- 4 to 6 inches of rain is currently forecasted for Beaufort County over the next 10 days, most of which will occur between Thursday and Saturday of next week. However, these rainfall totals will be track specific, and subject to change over the coming days.
- Winds
- Debbie is not currently forecasted to be a significant wind event for our area. The most recent forecast models suggest that sustained winds ranging between of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 are possible after during the later part of next week.
- Storm Surge
- It will most likely be Monday before we have any forecast information related to storm surge.
Please see the email below and the attached briefing from the National Weather Service for more information. We will continue to pass along updates as they are received.
As always, thank you all for what you do to keep Beaufort County informed, prepared, and safe.
Chris Newkirk
Deputy Director
Beaufort County Emergency Services
1420 Highland Dr
Washington, NC 27889
Office: (252)940-6511
Cell: (252) 378-5352
Good morning,
Attached is the latest 1 page briefing for now Tropical Depression Four. The main change from the previous briefing is the timing, which has slowed.
Remember you can get the latest information from our local tropical page: https://www.weather.gov/mhx/tropical or the National Hurricane Center.
NWS_Morehead_City_TD_4_August_3rd_2024_5_AM_Update.pdf
Regards,
NWS Newport/Morehead City
NOAA - National Weather Service
Newport/Morehead City, NC Weather Forecast Office
533 Roberts Rd
Newport, NC 28570
