The Shell Game of Corrupted Government Exposed
Friday Was Election Day for More Than 50 State Lawmakers
Publisher's note: The author of this post is Dan Way, who is an associate editor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.
RALEIGH - The power of incumbency, gerrymandered election districts, and a growing national distaste for politics in general might be the causes of having voter ballots for the May 6 primary election showing more blanks than the responses to a pop quiz.
As of about 1 p.m. Friday, candidate filings with the State Board of Elections showed only 33 of 240 primaries will be contested in the state House. In the state Senate, 83 of 100 primary races either will be uncontested or have no candidate on one of the party tickets.
More than 50 state legislators effectively won seats in the 2015-16 General Assembly when filing ended at noon Friday, though it is possible even more incumbents may not need to face voters, as some of their potential rivals either will withdraw or be declared ineligible after review by the State Board of Elections.
Incumbent members of the General Assembly appear to be the major winners of that weak candidate turnout.
Twelve Senate incumbents appear to have won re-election because they have no primary opponents and no candidates filed from an opposing party. Another 24 Senate incumbents have no primary opposition and will advance to the Nov. 6 general election.
Forty-three House incumbents will win re-election automatically, barring write-in opponents or unaffiliated candidates who petition to be on the ballot, because they had no opposition from their own party, and no candidates filing to run in the other party's primaries. Another 48 will have no primary opponents.
"There's a lot of factors, I think, that can go into candidate recruitment," said Matt Bales, research director at the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation, which tracks state elections. One huge consideration is the way legislative district maps are drawn by the political party in power.
"There are not as many competitive seats. Facing an incumbent for a seat can also be a challenge," Bales said.
"You're asking a huge sacrifice of an individual to run for public office. That is a daunting task in and of itself. Second of all, if you look at the districts and you evaluate the districts from historical perspective, a lot of these are safe for Republicans or Democrats and so it leaves little opportunity for competitive races," Bales said.
On the national landscape, the approval rating of Congress is around 10 percent, and "just the bitterness of politics could also deter people from wanting to run for office," Bales said.
What struck Bales from distilling the filings was "a disorganization within candidate recruitment" among Democrats.
Disorganized Democrats?
"For example, I understand that the Supreme Court race is a nonpartisan race," he said. "But the fact that two Republicans are running for [chief justice], I think, shows a little disorganization within the recruiting part of the Democratic Party," Bales said.
Supreme Court Justice Mark Martin and Superior Court Judge Ola Lewis, both Republicans, have filed to run for the chief justice's seat on the bench. No Democrats filed.
"If you look at some of the seats that the Democrats might potentially, given the historical analysis of the district, have to play defense, I believe my analysis shows that all of them have a Republican candidate running against them in opposition," Bales said.
"But there are a few examples - one in particular, House District 45 - where there is no Democrat running against a Republican in a district that, historically speaking, is very competitive," he said. Republican incumbent John Szoka represents that district.
Bales also was intrigued by the occupations listed by many Democrat candidates.
"You're seeing a lot more students, and activists, and younger people. This might be a great shot for the Democratic Party that they're growing," he said. "I'm interested to see how that trend plays out in the election cycle.
Running unopposed will mean different thing to different candidates.
In House District 49, Republican Gary Pendleton is running unopposed against Democrats Derek Kiszely and Kim Hanchette. While the Democrats are busy going door-to-door, raising money, and executing their game plans, Pendleton will be able to concentrate on raising money for the general election, Bales said. Advantage Pendleton.
On the flip side, the Democratic primary winner will have met with voters, delivered a message, and gained campaign experience that could be a boost in November he said.
An incumbent with no primary but challengers on the other ticket, such as Sen. Bill Cook, R-1st District, will have "earned media advantage" from two years of incumbency, Bales said. Stan White, a former state senator Cook defeated in 2012, may retain "decent name ID as well in that district," but so will Judy Krahenbul, a Democratic operative who "might have some grassroots" support.
The Democrats "will have to spend significant resources while Cook, as part of the majority party, will save his war chest for the General Election. But that doesn't guarantee a win. "Historically speaking, this district is still competitive," Bales said.
Incumbent Sen. Norm Sanderson, R-2nd District, has no primary opponent. He will face the winner of a three-way Democratic primary having name recognition and membership in the majority party in what, according to historical analysis, has been a strong Republican district.
"It does create a very large uphill battle, but such uphill battles have been overcome before," Bales said. "A lot can change in an election cycle."
For a Democrat to win the seat would require "running a very smart, and strategic campaign to kind of navigate through the primary, and especially to defeat the incumbent in the general," Bales said.
Congress
In the congressional races, Wesley Casteen was the only Libertarian to file, for the open 7th District seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Mike McIntyre. In the other 12 congressional districts, nine primary positions will not be contested. With no Democrats filing to run in the 9th District, the winner of the May 6 GOP primary between Republican incumbent Robert Pittenger and last-minute challenger Michael Steinberg automatically will go to Washington, barring any write-in or unaffiliated candidates.
Republican congressional candidates who will push through to the General Election without primary opponents are first-term incumbent Reps. Richard Hudson (District 8), Mark Meadows (District 11), and George Holding (District 13), and challenger Paul Wright (District 4).
Democrats without primary opposition advancing to the General Election are incumbent Rep. David Price (District 4), and challengers Marshall Adame (District 3), Antonio Blue (District 8), and Tate MacQueen (District 10).
State Senate
In the state Senate, Republicans are running no candidates in districts 3, 5, 14, 20, 21, 28, 32, 37, and 40. Democrats have no candidates in districts 11, 24, 27, 33, 35, 36, 39, 42, 43, 44, 47.
Republicans who can, for all practical purposes, claim victory now because they are running uncontested and face no Democratic opponents, are incumbent Sens. Harry Brown (6), Buck Newton (11), Rick Gunn (24), Trudy Wade (27), Tommy Tucker (35), Kathy Harrington (43), and David Curtis (44), along with newcomer Andy Wells (42).
Incumbent Republicans running unopposed in the primary but who will face competition in the General Election include Sens. Cook, Sanderson, Louis Pate (7), Bill Rabon (8), Brent Jackson (10), Ronald Rabin (12), Tamara Barringer (17), Chad Barefoot (18), Wesley Meredith (19), Phil Berger (26), Jerry Tillman (29), Shirley Blackburn Randleman (30), Andrew Brock (34), Jeff Tarte (41), Dan Soucek (45), Warren Daniel (46), Tom Apodaca (48), and Jim Davis (50).
Other GOP candidates without a primary opponent are Richard Scott (4), Bernard White (13), Molotov Mitchell (16), Mary Lopez-Carter (23), Tom McInnis (25), and Richard Rivette (38).
Democrats winning re-election outright because they have, at this point, no primary rivals and no GOP opponents, are incumbent Sens. Dan Blue (14), Floyd McKissick (20), Earline Parmon (32), and Daniel Clodfelter (37).
Democrats running unopposed in the primary but who will face competition in the General Election include incumbent Sens. Angela Bryant (4), Josh Stein (16), Valerie Foushee (23), Gene McLaurin (25), Joel Ford (38), and Martin Nesbitt (49).
Other Democratic candidates without a primary opponent are: Erik Anderson (7), Elizabeth Redenbaugh (9), Donald Rains (10), Thomas Bradshaw (15), Bryan Fulghum (17), Sarah Crawford (18), Billy Richardson (19), William Osborne (26), Tommy Davis (29), Eva Ingle (30), John Motsinger (31), Constance Johnson (34), Latrice McRae (41), James Spongenberg (45), Emily Church (46), and Rick Wood (48).
State House
In the state House, Republican incumbents who appear to have won re-election unopposed are Reps. Jimmy Dixon (4), John Bell (10), Ted Davis (19), James Langdon (28), Paul "Skip" Stam (37), John Szoka (45), Jamie Boles (52), Dennis Riddell (64), D. Craig Horn (68), Dean Arp (69), Carl Ford (76), Allen McNeill (78), Rayne Brown (81), Linda Johnson (83), Edgar Starnes (87), Mitchell Setzer (89), Bryan Holloway (91), William Brawley (103), Jacqueline Schaefer (105), John Torbett (108), Kelly Hastings (110), and Roger West (120).
Democratic incumbents who appear to have won re-election are Reps. Bobbie Richardson (7), George Graham (12), Susi Hamilton (18), Larry Bell (21), Larry Hall (29), Paul Luebke (30), Nathan Baskerville (32), Grier Martin (34), Darren Jackson (39), Marvin Lucas (42), Elmer Floyd (43), Charles Graham (47), Garland Pierce (48), Ken Goodman (66), Edward Hanes Jr. (72), Rodney Moore (99), Tricia Cotham (100), Berverly Miller Earle (101), Becky Carney (102), Kelly Alexander (107), and Susan Fisher (114).
Incumbent Republicans advancing without a primary but who will face General Election opponents are Reps. Bob Steinburg (1), Michael Speciale (3), Susan Martin (8), Patricia McElraft (13), Chris Millis (16), Rick Catlin (20), Jeff Collins (25), Chris Malone (35), Nelson Dollar (36), Marilyn Avila (40), Tom Murry (41), Mike Stone (51), David Lewis (53), Mark Brody (55), Jon Hardister (59), John Faircloth (61), John Blust (62), Stephen Ross (63), Bert Jones (65), Pat Hurley (70), Debra Conrad (74), Donny Lambeth (75), Julia Howard (79), Josh Dobson (85), Rob Bryan (88), Sarah Stevens (90), Charles Jeter (92), Jonathan Jordan (93), Jason Saine (97), Tim Moore (111), Mike Hager (112), Chris Whitmire (113), Nathan Ramsey (115), Tim Moffitt (116), Michele Presnell (118),
Other Republicans headed to the General Election without a primary are challengers Sidney Pierce (5), Ray Martin (11), Ken Smith (22), Todd Conard (31), Perry Whitlock (33), Joe Thompson (38), Richard Button (44), Brenden Jones (46), Gary Pendleton (49), Andy Wilkie (54), David Pratt Carter (56), Kris McCann (71), Dan Bishop (104), Trey Lowe (106),
Democratic incumbents advancing without a primary are Reps. Paul Tine (6), Duane Hall (11), William Brisson (22), Henry Michaux (31), Rosa Gill (33), Yvonne Lewis Holley (38), Rick Glazier (44), Ken Waddell (46), Graig Meyer (50), Verla Insko (56), Evelyn Terry (71), Carla Cunningham (106), and Joe Sam Queen (119).
Other Democrats headed to the General Election without a primary are candidates Garry Meigs (1), Whit Whitley (3), Bobi Gregory (8), Uriah Ward (9), Jim Nolan (13), Steve Unger (16), Charles Warren (17), Betsy Jordan (20), Joe Hester (25), Brian Mountcastle (35), Lisa Baker (36), Margaret Broadwell (40), Gale Adcock (41), Brad Salmon (51), Kim Hargett (55), Scott Jones (59), Ron Weatherford (61), Sal Leone (62), Ian Baltutis (63), Elretha Perkins (65), Nalin Mehta (67), Wesley Fennell (70), Mary Dickinson (74), David Gordon (75), Cristina Victoria Vazquez (79), Earle Schecter (82), Gene Mahaffey (84), J.R. Edwards (85), James Cates (86), Margie Storch (88), John Worth Wiles (90), Robin Bradford (92), Sue Counts (93), Cliff Moone (96), Rosemary Hubbard (97), Natasha Maracus (98), Nick Carpenter (111), Lisa Bralley (112), Norm Bossert (113), John Ager (115), Brian Turner (116), and Dean Hicks (118).
Go Back
Dozens of ballot slots remained empty as candidate filing ended
From top, Supreme Court Justice Mark Martin will face fellow Republican Superior Court Judge Ola Lewis in the race for chief justice; Republican Michael Steinberg filed Friday for the 9th Congressional District.
As of about 1 p.m. Friday, candidate filings with the State Board of Elections showed only 33 of 240 primaries will be contested in the state House. In the state Senate, 83 of 100 primary races either will be uncontested or have no candidate on one of the party tickets.
More than 50 state legislators effectively won seats in the 2015-16 General Assembly when filing ended at noon Friday, though it is possible even more incumbents may not need to face voters, as some of their potential rivals either will withdraw or be declared ineligible after review by the State Board of Elections.
Incumbent members of the General Assembly appear to be the major winners of that weak candidate turnout.
Twelve Senate incumbents appear to have won re-election because they have no primary opponents and no candidates filed from an opposing party. Another 24 Senate incumbents have no primary opposition and will advance to the Nov. 6 general election.
Forty-three House incumbents will win re-election automatically, barring write-in opponents or unaffiliated candidates who petition to be on the ballot, because they had no opposition from their own party, and no candidates filing to run in the other party's primaries. Another 48 will have no primary opponents.
"There's a lot of factors, I think, that can go into candidate recruitment," said Matt Bales, research director at the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation, which tracks state elections. One huge consideration is the way legislative district maps are drawn by the political party in power.
"There are not as many competitive seats. Facing an incumbent for a seat can also be a challenge," Bales said.
"You're asking a huge sacrifice of an individual to run for public office. That is a daunting task in and of itself. Second of all, if you look at the districts and you evaluate the districts from historical perspective, a lot of these are safe for Republicans or Democrats and so it leaves little opportunity for competitive races," Bales said.
On the national landscape, the approval rating of Congress is around 10 percent, and "just the bitterness of politics could also deter people from wanting to run for office," Bales said.
What struck Bales from distilling the filings was "a disorganization within candidate recruitment" among Democrats.
Disorganized Democrats?
"For example, I understand that the Supreme Court race is a nonpartisan race," he said. "But the fact that two Republicans are running for [chief justice], I think, shows a little disorganization within the recruiting part of the Democratic Party," Bales said.
Supreme Court Justice Mark Martin and Superior Court Judge Ola Lewis, both Republicans, have filed to run for the chief justice's seat on the bench. No Democrats filed.
"If you look at some of the seats that the Democrats might potentially, given the historical analysis of the district, have to play defense, I believe my analysis shows that all of them have a Republican candidate running against them in opposition," Bales said.
"But there are a few examples - one in particular, House District 45 - where there is no Democrat running against a Republican in a district that, historically speaking, is very competitive," he said. Republican incumbent John Szoka represents that district.
Bales also was intrigued by the occupations listed by many Democrat candidates.
"You're seeing a lot more students, and activists, and younger people. This might be a great shot for the Democratic Party that they're growing," he said. "I'm interested to see how that trend plays out in the election cycle.
Running unopposed will mean different thing to different candidates.
In House District 49, Republican Gary Pendleton is running unopposed against Democrats Derek Kiszely and Kim Hanchette. While the Democrats are busy going door-to-door, raising money, and executing their game plans, Pendleton will be able to concentrate on raising money for the general election, Bales said. Advantage Pendleton.
On the flip side, the Democratic primary winner will have met with voters, delivered a message, and gained campaign experience that could be a boost in November he said.
An incumbent with no primary but challengers on the other ticket, such as Sen. Bill Cook, R-1st District, will have "earned media advantage" from two years of incumbency, Bales said. Stan White, a former state senator Cook defeated in 2012, may retain "decent name ID as well in that district," but so will Judy Krahenbul, a Democratic operative who "might have some grassroots" support.
The Democrats "will have to spend significant resources while Cook, as part of the majority party, will save his war chest for the General Election. But that doesn't guarantee a win. "Historically speaking, this district is still competitive," Bales said.
Incumbent Sen. Norm Sanderson, R-2nd District, has no primary opponent. He will face the winner of a three-way Democratic primary having name recognition and membership in the majority party in what, according to historical analysis, has been a strong Republican district.
"It does create a very large uphill battle, but such uphill battles have been overcome before," Bales said. "A lot can change in an election cycle."
For a Democrat to win the seat would require "running a very smart, and strategic campaign to kind of navigate through the primary, and especially to defeat the incumbent in the general," Bales said.
Congress
In the congressional races, Wesley Casteen was the only Libertarian to file, for the open 7th District seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Mike McIntyre. In the other 12 congressional districts, nine primary positions will not be contested. With no Democrats filing to run in the 9th District, the winner of the May 6 GOP primary between Republican incumbent Robert Pittenger and last-minute challenger Michael Steinberg automatically will go to Washington, barring any write-in or unaffiliated candidates.
Republican congressional candidates who will push through to the General Election without primary opponents are first-term incumbent Reps. Richard Hudson (District 8), Mark Meadows (District 11), and George Holding (District 13), and challenger Paul Wright (District 4).
Democrats without primary opposition advancing to the General Election are incumbent Rep. David Price (District 4), and challengers Marshall Adame (District 3), Antonio Blue (District 8), and Tate MacQueen (District 10).
State Senate
In the state Senate, Republicans are running no candidates in districts 3, 5, 14, 20, 21, 28, 32, 37, and 40. Democrats have no candidates in districts 11, 24, 27, 33, 35, 36, 39, 42, 43, 44, 47.
Republicans who can, for all practical purposes, claim victory now because they are running uncontested and face no Democratic opponents, are incumbent Sens. Harry Brown (6), Buck Newton (11), Rick Gunn (24), Trudy Wade (27), Tommy Tucker (35), Kathy Harrington (43), and David Curtis (44), along with newcomer Andy Wells (42).
Incumbent Republicans running unopposed in the primary but who will face competition in the General Election include Sens. Cook, Sanderson, Louis Pate (7), Bill Rabon (8), Brent Jackson (10), Ronald Rabin (12), Tamara Barringer (17), Chad Barefoot (18), Wesley Meredith (19), Phil Berger (26), Jerry Tillman (29), Shirley Blackburn Randleman (30), Andrew Brock (34), Jeff Tarte (41), Dan Soucek (45), Warren Daniel (46), Tom Apodaca (48), and Jim Davis (50).
Other GOP candidates without a primary opponent are Richard Scott (4), Bernard White (13), Molotov Mitchell (16), Mary Lopez-Carter (23), Tom McInnis (25), and Richard Rivette (38).
Democrats winning re-election outright because they have, at this point, no primary rivals and no GOP opponents, are incumbent Sens. Dan Blue (14), Floyd McKissick (20), Earline Parmon (32), and Daniel Clodfelter (37).
Democrats running unopposed in the primary but who will face competition in the General Election include incumbent Sens. Angela Bryant (4), Josh Stein (16), Valerie Foushee (23), Gene McLaurin (25), Joel Ford (38), and Martin Nesbitt (49).
Other Democratic candidates without a primary opponent are: Erik Anderson (7), Elizabeth Redenbaugh (9), Donald Rains (10), Thomas Bradshaw (15), Bryan Fulghum (17), Sarah Crawford (18), Billy Richardson (19), William Osborne (26), Tommy Davis (29), Eva Ingle (30), John Motsinger (31), Constance Johnson (34), Latrice McRae (41), James Spongenberg (45), Emily Church (46), and Rick Wood (48).
State House
In the state House, Republican incumbents who appear to have won re-election unopposed are Reps. Jimmy Dixon (4), John Bell (10), Ted Davis (19), James Langdon (28), Paul "Skip" Stam (37), John Szoka (45), Jamie Boles (52), Dennis Riddell (64), D. Craig Horn (68), Dean Arp (69), Carl Ford (76), Allen McNeill (78), Rayne Brown (81), Linda Johnson (83), Edgar Starnes (87), Mitchell Setzer (89), Bryan Holloway (91), William Brawley (103), Jacqueline Schaefer (105), John Torbett (108), Kelly Hastings (110), and Roger West (120).
Democratic incumbents who appear to have won re-election are Reps. Bobbie Richardson (7), George Graham (12), Susi Hamilton (18), Larry Bell (21), Larry Hall (29), Paul Luebke (30), Nathan Baskerville (32), Grier Martin (34), Darren Jackson (39), Marvin Lucas (42), Elmer Floyd (43), Charles Graham (47), Garland Pierce (48), Ken Goodman (66), Edward Hanes Jr. (72), Rodney Moore (99), Tricia Cotham (100), Berverly Miller Earle (101), Becky Carney (102), Kelly Alexander (107), and Susan Fisher (114).
Incumbent Republicans advancing without a primary but who will face General Election opponents are Reps. Bob Steinburg (1), Michael Speciale (3), Susan Martin (8), Patricia McElraft (13), Chris Millis (16), Rick Catlin (20), Jeff Collins (25), Chris Malone (35), Nelson Dollar (36), Marilyn Avila (40), Tom Murry (41), Mike Stone (51), David Lewis (53), Mark Brody (55), Jon Hardister (59), John Faircloth (61), John Blust (62), Stephen Ross (63), Bert Jones (65), Pat Hurley (70), Debra Conrad (74), Donny Lambeth (75), Julia Howard (79), Josh Dobson (85), Rob Bryan (88), Sarah Stevens (90), Charles Jeter (92), Jonathan Jordan (93), Jason Saine (97), Tim Moore (111), Mike Hager (112), Chris Whitmire (113), Nathan Ramsey (115), Tim Moffitt (116), Michele Presnell (118),
Other Republicans headed to the General Election without a primary are challengers Sidney Pierce (5), Ray Martin (11), Ken Smith (22), Todd Conard (31), Perry Whitlock (33), Joe Thompson (38), Richard Button (44), Brenden Jones (46), Gary Pendleton (49), Andy Wilkie (54), David Pratt Carter (56), Kris McCann (71), Dan Bishop (104), Trey Lowe (106),
Democratic incumbents advancing without a primary are Reps. Paul Tine (6), Duane Hall (11), William Brisson (22), Henry Michaux (31), Rosa Gill (33), Yvonne Lewis Holley (38), Rick Glazier (44), Ken Waddell (46), Graig Meyer (50), Verla Insko (56), Evelyn Terry (71), Carla Cunningham (106), and Joe Sam Queen (119).
Other Democrats headed to the General Election without a primary are candidates Garry Meigs (1), Whit Whitley (3), Bobi Gregory (8), Uriah Ward (9), Jim Nolan (13), Steve Unger (16), Charles Warren (17), Betsy Jordan (20), Joe Hester (25), Brian Mountcastle (35), Lisa Baker (36), Margaret Broadwell (40), Gale Adcock (41), Brad Salmon (51), Kim Hargett (55), Scott Jones (59), Ron Weatherford (61), Sal Leone (62), Ian Baltutis (63), Elretha Perkins (65), Nalin Mehta (67), Wesley Fennell (70), Mary Dickinson (74), David Gordon (75), Cristina Victoria Vazquez (79), Earle Schecter (82), Gene Mahaffey (84), J.R. Edwards (85), James Cates (86), Margie Storch (88), John Worth Wiles (90), Robin Bradford (92), Sue Counts (93), Cliff Moone (96), Rosemary Hubbard (97), Natasha Maracus (98), Nick Carpenter (111), Lisa Bralley (112), Norm Bossert (113), John Ager (115), Brian Turner (116), and Dean Hicks (118).
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