McCrory blows it. Bets on Tillis--who has a higher disapproval rating than he does approval | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.

Tillis preferred by half as many as prefer "someone else" other than any running

    Governor Pat McCrory has stepped in it. He told the Washington Post that Thom Tillis is the most electable Republican against Kay Hagan. Here is how the Post reported it:

    North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R) hasn't made an endorsement in the GOP primary to face Sen. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.). But he does see one of the candidates as the most electable.

    McCrory, in an interview with The Washington Post on Thursday, said that candidate is state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R).

    "I think Tillis has the best chance to win a general election," McCrory said. "From a political perspective, there's no doubt in my mind that Tillis has the best chance to win in the general election. I think you can see that in the attacks from D.C. going after Tillis."

    Tillis faces a primary with a tea party-aligned obstetrician, Greg Brannon, among other lesser-known candidates. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has endorsed Brannon, though national tea party groups have yet to fully embrace his campaign.

    A recent poll shows Tillis and Brannon running close to one another in the May 6 primary.

    GOP establishment groups have been supportive of Tillis, with American Crossroads recently launching a $1.1 million ad campaign on his behalf.

    Hagan is a top GOP target, with the conservative group Americans for Prosperity attacking her with $7 million worth of ads early in the 2014 election cycle.

    Tillis and McCrory have worked together closely, given their positions. But they haven't always agreed.

    Tillis expressed disappointment in McCrory in August, for example, after McCrory vetoed a bill that would have allowed social service workers to drug test welfare applicants.

    Update 2:26 p.m.: Brannon campaign manager Reilly O'Neill responds: "Basing electability on which candidate is attacked most is foolish. The same strategy of using attacks to boost the weakest general election opponent was successfully used by Claire McCaskill against Todd Akin in Missouri. Like Todd Akin, Thom Tillis repeatedly polls at the back of the Republican field when matched up against Hagan. Senator Hagan must be 'chomping at the bit' to go up against Thom Tillis."

    Click here to go to the original source to read the rest of the story.

    Commentary

    Let the record show that whether he intended it as an "endorsement" he has telegraphed his preference...something no Governor should ever do before the party's primary. Pat McCrory has just split the Republican Party worse than anything else he could have done. And there was no need to do so. What he said is not going to help bring a groundswell from the Grassroots/TEA Party element to vote for Tillis, either in the primary or in the General Election. So what's his point?

    In making his prognostication the Governor simply shows how out of touch he is with the current mood in both the N. C. GOP and the state as a whole. He fails to understand the widespread and very deep resentment within the GOP for politicians who "go along to get along." No, it is nowhere near a majority of Republicans but it is enough that if they and their kindred unaffiliated voters stay home in November then Kay Hagan will be re-elected by default.

    The outcome of the Senate race will be determined by turnout. For Tillis to get the turnout he would need would require more than American Crossroads' money. It would require "boots on the ground" and many of those boots will not get out and work for Tillis.

    The Establishment GOP in North Carolina has made some very foolish mistakes in recent months in alienating the Grassroots and TEA Party voters, both registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters. The best chance the GOP had was to build an inclusive party. Instead it has taken just about every chance it could to stick a finger in the eye of the Grassroots, Liberty and TEA Party folks. Those people do not support Establishment GOP candidates like Tillis and McCrory as much as they oppose progressive Democrats. But if these folk don't see a significant difference between those progressive Democrats and the Republicans then they simply will not vote for either candidate.

    McCrory miss a golden opportunity to build the NC GOP. He not only blew it, but he most likely invited primary opposition for himself in 2016.

    We'll challenge the Governor's handicapping of the race. We will predict that Tillis will not get 40% of the votes cast in the May Primary. The run-off will turn even more on voter turnout and the boots on the ground will prevail for the non-Establishment candidate against Tillis. And whether that is Greg Brannon, as we predict it will be, or Mark Harris, when the dust settles in November Brannon will have defeated Barack Obama/Kay Hagan. And McCrory will be left at the dance without a partner to pull those voters into his camp in 2016.

    Finally, a footnote. If the Governor had paid attention to the consensus of most of the most recent polls, including the one cited in the Post article, he would know that the Undecided vote is still holding the margin of victory in the May Primary. Tillis only pulled an 18% favorable rating contrasted to 37% unfavorable with 46% "not sure" about him. Brannon's un-favorability rating was half that of Tillis. That's not a very comfortable basis for predicting Tillis being the "most electable."

    The most salient point made by the polls is simple: Most voters don't really like anyone. In the PPP poll "someone else" got more than twice as many votes as the horse McCrory put his money on. And that does not bode well for those running as politicians rather than against politics as usual.

    Thus, one might conclude that the Governor has realized the desperation extant in the Tillis camp and his comments were nothing more than an attempt to salvage Tillis' campaign with two weeks remaining before the voting begins. We fear he will pay a big price for that. Had he gotten better advice he would have said: "We have a gaggle of great candidates, any of whom would retire Kay Hagan and send a message to Barack Obama."