Voters: "Difference in candidates not worth my time to go vote" | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.

First in a series of articles assessing the May 6 Primary

    With this post we are beginning our analysis of the May 6 Primary Elections. We will not begin with individual local races but reserve that analysis until after the Early Voting Ballots are distributed by precinct.

    We begin our analysis with a look at the total voting population in this election. If you want to cut to the bottom line, here it is: Pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. The numbers are below. But here is what we think they mean: An overwhelming majority of citizens are disgusted with both our government and politics (if you define politics as the methodology we use to select our representatives). The majority voted against everyone. Or to put it in the vernacular, "none of the above."

    What his conclusion compels is that those of us who actually care about the future of our county, state and nation must come to grips with what this means going forward. Clearly, "business as usual" is not going to result in the survival of the Republic.

    We will postulate later that the "blame" for this pathetic situation is to be properly placed at: 1. The quality of too many (but not all) candidates we have running, 2. The debasement of the campaigns that are run by too many candidates and their supporters (what would we expect from non-quality candidates?) but mainly 3. The lack of willingness/ability of the public impose high standards on candidates and campaigns. (This last one is subject to an alternative perspective, that is, that perhaps indeed the voters have indeed rejected the current standards and that is why we have the numbers below).

    We'll document those conclusions in this series, but for now let's look the baseline picture.

    In the primary in North Carolina 1.023 million voters to cast a ballot in the May 6, 2014 primary. That is out of 6.5 million registered voters, or an abysmal 16% turnout. Eighty four percent of the eligible voters voted for "none of these."

    If you look at those who are registered plus those of age who could be registered the turnout was 13.8%. There are two points made by these numbers. The first is that over 800,000 people over 18 years of age don't bother to register. And of course, the turnout of those who are registered says that an overwhelming number simply did not have a sufficient reason to go by and cast a ballot.

    Point for debate: Is it that these people who chose not to vote don't care, or is it that the "product" being offered was not sufficient for them to choose that product? We suspect the latter, but more on that later.

    In Beaufort County we did do a bit better. Nine thousand out of 32,503 actually cast a ballot. That's 28%. But looked at from the other perspective, 72% didn't see anything worthy of their taking time to vote.

    Divided by party, 4537 cast their vote in the Republican Primary and 4472 voted in the Democrat Primary, meaning that most of the 7251 unaffiliated registered voters who voted chose to vote in the Republican Primary. Of the registered voters in Beaufort County, 46% are registered Democrat, 31% Republican and 22% unaffiliated. The unaffiliated get to choose which ballot to cast in each primary. If the trends continue, within the next decade the number of unaffiliated registered voters will exceed the number of Republican registered voters and that combination will exceed the number of Democrats by a statistically significant margin.

    A few more numbers, thanks to Priorities NC:

    • 67,000 of those who actually voted did NOT vote in either the Democrat or Republican U. S. Senate race.

    • Percentage of people of voting age population that picked GOP nominee Thom Tillis: 3%

    • Percentage of people of voting age population that picked Dem. Nominee Kay Hagan: 5%

    • Looking ahead, here are the most current registration statistics:

    Updated as of: 05/06/2014

    Republicans: 1,995,779

    Democrats: 2,754,823

    Libertarian: 23,539

    Unaffiliated: 1,741,983

    One can parse these numbers any way you wish but here is the "absolute truth:" The dominate factor in North Carolina and Beaufort County politics is that most of the people (2 out of every three) simply vote for "none of these." They don't vote.

    The contests that are reported in the media are simply machinations around the edges. For example, much has been made of whether Thom Tillis can beat Kay Hagan. In the Republican Primary, none less than the Governor posited that Tillis was "more electable" than Greg Brannon or the other contenders.

    Whether that is true or not is purely speculation, on the Governor's part, or on anyone else's part. But here are the facts:

    • If everyone who voted in the Republican Primary votes for Tillis in the General Election he will get 486,836 votes. Kay Hagan will get 480,020 if every voter who voted in the Democrat primary votes for her.

    • But here's Tillis' problem: He got 222,446 votes. But more people (264,390) voted for someone else in his Primary.

    • If the same people vote the same way in November, Tillis will have to get 215,630 of those people who voted for someone else to vote for him. That is nearly twice as many as he got to vote for him in the Primary.

    • In the last "off year" U. S. Senate election in North Carolina Richard Burr got 269,447 votes out of 371,968 cast in the GOP Primary. Elaine Marshall won the Democrat Primary with 144,102 of 425,343 votes. Turnout was 14%

    • Then in the General Election Burr polled 1,458,046 and Marshall received 1,245,074. So more than three times as many people voted in the General Election as voted in the Primary. In that election, voter turnout was 44%, about average.

    Points to Ponder

    • It is impossible to project statistically who will win the General Election by looking at the Primary results. Many more people vote in the General Election that do not vote in the Primary.

    • The outcome of any General Election is determined by those who choose not to vote more than it is by those who do vote. There are more of them than those who determined the outcome with their votes.

    • The fundamental question raised by these numbers, we would suggest, is whether the Republic can survive with less than ten percent of the registered voters determining which candidates will run in the General Election. Consider this analogy. Assume you own a company that sells only one product. You compete in a market that has only one other product. You want to have the dominant share of the market. Would you base your decisions about your company's future on whether 5% of your potential customers bought your product versus a competitor's product?

    • In both North Carolina and Beaufort County the Democrat nominee is chosen by Democrats. The Republican nominee is in reality determined by the unaffiliated voters.

    • The provision that allows a candidate to be nominated with less than a majority of the votes means that the nominee is a minority candidate. Minority candidates can win the General Election, but they cannot win it by getting the votes of those who nominated them. They must get more votes from people who did not vote for them as they got from people who did vote for them.

    Bottom line: Elections in North Carolina and Beaufort County are determined by those who do NOT vote.
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CommenTerry: Volume Sixteen Editorials, Beaufort Observer, Op-Ed & Politics, Bloodless Warfare: Politics Let's Make A Deal

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