ISIS Might Not Be Biggest Threat | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: The author of this post is Andy Taylor, who is a conrtributor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

    Since 2001 Americans have been focused on the danger of radical Islamic terrorism. Samuel Huntington calls the current conflict part of a broader "clash of civilizations," one in which al-Qaida, ISIS, and others wish to destroy our culture and ideas.

    But it is difficult to see this threat as existential, even if it does give us a severe and constant security headache. It is sometimes hard to believe it, but there are potentially greater challenges to Western values of liberty and democracy than an Islamic caliphate supported by a network of terrorists.

    China seems the main candidate.

    As a result of massive state investment in infrastructure and exports buoyed by currency devaluation, subsidies, and frequent dumping, its economy has grown spectacularly over the past 20 years. In 1997 China's gross domestic product was less than $1 trillion; today it is nearly $11 trillion. It certainly represents an economic threat.

    Even though the Cold War is over, China also might challenge the U.S. militarily. It has more than 2 million troops and currently is shifting its military focus away from manpower and toward technology. Its defense budget is only about one-fourth of America's, but it has had nuclear weapons since 1964, is rapidly revamping its navy and air force, and recently has acquired sophisticated cyberwarfare capabilities.

    Recent actions in East Asia and the Pacific suggest it is willing to "mix it up" with rivals to extend its regional influence. North Korea and Taiwan always have the potential to provide flashpoints in the Sino-American relationship.

    We were led to believe that China would be a partner rather than a rival, particularly after the Soviet Union collapsed. The roughly 20-year rule of premiers Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao that followed seemed to confirm the impression.

    But under Xi Jinping, America's relationship with China has worsened. Trade disputes continue, and China's dollar currency peg has not waylaid accusations of manipulation.

    In 2015 the U.S. trade deficit with the country hit a new record of $366 billion. President Xi has centralized power greatly, if that sounded possible, by granting himself new civilian and military powers. The green shoots of freedom of speech, association, and religion that emerged under his predecessors have been trampled, often in the name of the president's admittedly admirable efforts to extinguish corruption. Potential opposition seems, like many of the Chinese people, to be mesmerized by Xi's "cult of personality" and his glamorous wife, Peng Liyuan.

    We can overestimate the Chinese challenge, however. The possibility was revealed to me during a recent visit to Shanghai. The downtown of this sprawling city gleams with the rewards of capitalism. It has towering skyscrapers and a first-class rail system. But the vast majority of its 20 million residents, especially those of its enormous and chaotic suburbs, seem unhappy.

    The city is frenetic - it has a distinctive "Western" vibe - but people seem stuck in place. Their working lives are unrewarding. They cannot own houses, so they live in shacks or Soviet-style high-rises, generally alone or with aging parents.

    Most public services are decrepit, particularly health care and education. Success seems dependent upon connections rather than talent. The lives of Shanghai residents are devoid of the civic institutions that give ours meaning like family, church, book clubs, the local tavern. Their communist society, ironically, is atomistic.

    And, of course, they have little opportunity to speak out or organize politically to bring about change. There's no Facebook or Google in China. The government's "Great Firewall" largely blocks access to them and many other Western websites.

    The city has a growing globalized class largely made up of educated, tech-savvy millennials. They seem content at the moment, but at some stage surely they will insist on political reform and multiparty democracy, freedom of speech, and a more concerted effort to end corruption and bring about meritocracy.

    We know from 1989 and the events in Tiananmen Square that this will be resisted. It is hard to know what will happen, but the process will set China back a great deal economically, and probably militarily.

    Our presidential election this year is, according to Donald Trump, about making America great again. That might be true. But for now we are - at least in a comparative sense - if not great, certainly top of the pile.

    Andy Taylor is professor of political science at the School of International and Public Affairs at N.C. State University. He does not speak for the university.