Generational, Regional Differences Likely to Keep N.C. Divided, Pundits Say | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: The author of this post is Dan Way, who is an associate editor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

Population drop in rural areas and growth of Millennial generation will affect political participation

    Libertarian-oriented Millennials will impact future elections, legislative battles will expand between declining rural counties and growing urban areas, and volatility will persist in state elections, a panel of political analysts predicted.

    "I think we've all talked about the level of anger, and the level of fear, and the level of resentment in the electorate" reflected in bitter partisan fights nationally and statewide, said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor and provost at Catawba College.

    Bitzer was among four panelists at a recent event hosted by the North Carolina Independent Colleges & Universities and the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation. Other panelists were David McLennan, a political science professor at Meredith College, Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, and Martin Kifer, director of High Point University's Survey Research Center.

    "The real concern that I have is if there is a continuation of this divide that is becoming much more pronounced, and at some point the divide is going to be so wide that can't anybody build bridges to cover that chasm," Bitzer said.


Pollsters and pundits reflected on the meaning of the 2016 election at a Nov. 17 panel discussion at the Marriott Crabtree in Raleigh. From left are Joe Stewart, executive director of North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation; Michael Bitzer, provost and political science professor at Catawba College; Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll; David McLennan, Meredith College political science professor; and Martin Kifer, director of survey research at High Point University. (CJ photo by Dan Way)

    "I think there are real concerns and real fears in rural areas" where small communities have seen employers move away, and society has changed in a way that rural residents don't recognize, Bitzer said.

    "And when that kind of fundamental change is occurring you're going to get that kind of reaction ... backlash to what they see going on in major urban areas" such as passage of House Bill 2, the so-called bathroom legislation.

    While Charlotte residents "were mad because the state legislature got in their business" with passage of H.B. 2, Rowan County residents supported the bill, Bitzer said. "They said, 'Go, state legislature. Give it to those big city urbanites.'"

    He likened the changes in rural North Carolina to those that have developed in economically stagnant Rust Belt states with high levels of unemployment.

    "What those communities in rural North Carolina are having to deal with is profound. But if all of the attention stays focused on urban counties like Wake, like Mecklenburg, like Guilford, that resentment is only going to grow in that regard," Bitzer said.

    McLennan said a bill to extend broadband service to the state's poorest counties is expected to be reintroduced in the General Assembly after it convenes Jan. 11.

    "Well, legislators aren't elected statewide. They're elected in their districts," and vote in favor of their constituents' interests," McLennan said. "I'd be surprised" if the broadband bill passes.

    As the state adds an expected 2 million people over the next 20 years, the Triangle and Mecklenburg County each are projected to add 34 percent to their populations. The Triad, Wilmington, and Asheville will have moderate growth, while all other counties combined add only 10 percent to the statewide growth, McLennan said.

    Urban areas "are going to take on a much larger role in terms of voting behavior, and in terms of redistricting" power bases, McLennan said. "This resentment out in rural North Carolina is going to be reflected in lots of policy issues."

    As an example, transportation bills "always are going to reflect power in the General Assembly," he said. "How do we get rural North Carolina to feel like education dollars, transportation dollars, broadband dollars are coming their way when the population is shifting?"

    North Carolina elections "are experiencing more volatility in this 12-year period than is normal in American politics," with no signs that trend will change, McLennan said. Adding to the mix, by 2030 North Carolina will have a majority-minority voting population.

    According to election returns, had only Millennials voted in 2016, just three states would have chosen Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton, he said.

    Millennials may become more conservative over time, McLennan said. But they have a stronger belief in the value of diversity and support marriage equality more than Generation X or Baby Boomers, and that support is unlikely to change.

    "They are probably the most social libertarian of any generation this country has seen. They don't care who you marry, they don't care where you go to the bathroom. Just leave them alone," Bitzer said.

    Clinton won by 20 points among voters under 30, and in North Carolina unaffiliated voters are the fastest growing voter registration group among voters under 35, Bitzer said. Nearly 40 percent of all Millennials are registered unaffiliated. Statewide, Republicans represent 30 percent of all registered voters, but just 24 percent among Millennials.

    Millennials comprise 30 percent of the state's electorate, and Baby Boomers 33 percent. As soon as 2020 the groups either will be equal in number, or Millennials will slightly outnumber Boomers, Bitzer said.

    "I think that's a huge, significant dynamic going on particularly now because they tend to lean much more Democratic than necessarily Republican in their voting patterns," Bitzer said.

    Husser said independent voters in North Carolina "tend to be more moderate than people who identify as partisan. That said, they tend to lean conservative," and many are in denial. "They are consistent partisans," often voting according to psychological attachment to one party or another.

    How soon larger shares of Millennials will become regular voters remains to be seen.

    "People under 30 have not voted at the level of their peers since the mid-1970s," Husser said. Their turnout numbers will go up, and they may grow more conservative as they experience life events such as job issues, marriage, home buying, and starting a family. "But I'm not sure they are going to be as conservative as the Boomers and Gen X."

    Husser said one "megatrend" in North Carolina is the rise of unaffiliated voters. The other is voter migration, and it would be "hard to overstate" its importance, he said. In 1980, 75 percent of voters were born in North Carolina. That fell to 54 percent in 2014, and likely will continue to drop.

    New York, northern Virginia, and people who first moved from the Northeast to Florida comprise North Carolina's biggest influx, Husser said.