What the Voters Did | Eastern North Carolina Now

   Publisher's note: The article below appeared in John Hood's daily column in his publication, the Carolina Journal, which, because of Author / Publisher Hood, is inextricably linked to the John Locke Foundation.

    RALEIGH Because much of my national writing on politics centers on state governors and legislatures, I am on the email lists for Democratic and Republican committees aimed at increasing their party's power in state capitals. During election season, I get all the expectations-game releases, partisan spin, and last-minute fundraising pitches.

    In 2012, while the presidential race naturally got most of the attention, the Ds and Rs were still emailing up a storm about the state races. Democrats predicted that a strong reelection bid by President Obama would generate a wave election similar to 2006 and 2008 that would flip many red states blue. Republicans predicted either that a victorious Mitt Romney would have coattails in state races (oops) or that Republicans would offset Democratic victories for president and Senate with several Republicans victories down the ballot.

    In reality, none of these partisan talking points proved predictive of the outcome. After all the hoopla, the 2012 cycle turned out to be a status-quo election, not a wave election. President Obama won, but by less than 51 percent of the popular vote. Democrats netted two U.S. Senate seats, as Republicans frittered away their opportunities with bad candidates and worse messaging, but picked up on a handful of U.S. House seats, leaving the GOP in firm control of that chamber.

    At the state level, the Republicans didn't offset their federal losses with many big wins. They got only one pick-up in the gubernatorial races, Pat McCrory here in North Carolina, while losing once-competitive open seats in Washington, Montana, and New Hampshire that had previously been held by Democrats. The GOP did pick up four legislative chambers: both houses in Arkansas, plus the senates in Wisconsin and Alaska. But the Democrats won majorities in eight previously tied or Republican chambers: both houses in Minnesota and Maine, plus the house in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Oregon and the senate in New York. In the latter case, however, a group of Democrats may end up caucusing with Republicans, which would flip the control arrow back to red.

    So here's the bottom line. Despite their fecklessness elsewhere, Republicans remain the majority party in America's state governments. Of the 50 governors, 30 are Republican. Of the 98 partisan legislative chambers (Nebraska's legislature is unicameral and nonpartisan), Republicans control 57 and the Democrats control 40, with control of the New York senate still in play.

    What these statistics don't fully convey, however, is that the 2012 cycle further accentuated earlier trends. In several blue states, already-Democratic legislatures grew more Democratic. In several red states, including North Carolina, already-Republican legislatures grew more Republican. The 2012 results were partly the result of partisan redistricting in these states, true enough, but that doesn't explain earlier waves of partisan polarization.

    Essentially, there are fewer divided governments and tied or near-tied chambers than there used to be. As Karl Kurz observed on the National Conference of State Legislators blog last week, Republicans now control the governor's office and both legislative houses in 23 states, up from the previous 18. Democrats have unified governments in 19 states, up from the previous 11. Only a dozen states now have divided governments. That's the lowest number since the early 1950s.

    If you mix all these trends together, you get an interesting concoction, though I would hesitate to call it a smoothie. It may get rough over the next couple of years. Democratic politicians and officials will make most of the nation's decisions about war, peace, and foreign policy. Republicans and Democrats in Washington will share authority over fiscal issues, a situation that didn't exactly yield great results during the 2011-12 period. Perhaps the replay will be different.

    And when it comes to such domestic issues as education, transportation, social policy, and the state-level implementation of Obamacare, it will be mostly Republican politicians and officials who make the key decisions. Such is the will of the voters, as of November 2012.