Economists Predict Whether 2023 Will See A Recession | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This post appears here courtesy of the The Daily Wire. The author of this post is Ben Zeisloft.

    Various polls show that economists generally expect a recession this year, although there is no consensus among leading analysts.

    The economy has been throttled by inflationary pressures, labor shortages, and backlogged supply chains, contributing to negative growth in the first two quarters of last year. Central bankers at the Federal Reserve are embarking upon the most aggressive campaign to suppress rising price levels in decades as geopolitical pressures in eastern Europe and southeast Asia continue to mount.

    Roughly 70% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last month said that the United States would witness a recession this year. Respondents predicted that gross domestic product would show flat readings in the first and third quarters, as well as an annualized decline of 0.7% in the second quarter. They project year-over-year inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, to approach 3% in the fourth quarter as the Federal Reserve hikes the target federal funds rate, a reality that will also produce 4.9% unemployment.

    Another poll of professional economic forecasters from the National Association for Business Economics showed that most respondents say recessionary risks have surpassed 50% amid slower economic growth, higher inflation, and a lackluster labor market. "Panelists expect job growth will slow over the first three quarters of 2023 but remain positive," Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said in a statement.

    Beyond the United States, a study from the World Bank likewise predicts that contractionary monetary policy in leading developed countries heightens the risk of a global recession.

    "My deep concern is that these trends will persist, with long-lasting consequences that are devastating for people in emerging market and developing economies," World Bank Group President David Malpass said in a press release. "Policies should seek to generate additional investment and improve productivity and capital allocation, which are critical for growth and poverty reduction."

    On the other hand, economists at Goldman Sachs place the risk of a recession in the United States at a significantly lower 35%, forecasting that the nation will "stick a soft landing" as inflation decreases with only a slight impact on unemployment.

    "There are strong reasons to expect positive growth in coming quarters," Goldman Sachs Research Head Jan Hatzius said in the investment bank's outlook. "Our economists expect real disposable income to increase to a pace of more than 3% over the next year. Even as financial conditions have tightened and are now subtracting about 2 percentage points from growth, the rise in real income is likely to be the stronger force next year."

    Positive growth could come as other major economies are rocked by problems more severe than those in the United States, as noted by a report from the Center for American Progress. Soaring energy prices in Europe driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and aggressive renewable power goals have led to higher price levels. The economy of China has suffered as zealous lockdown measures slow manufacturing activity and prompt some firms to start new operations abroad. Indeed, the pressures in major economies could prompt the rise of emerging markets such as India, which is projected to surpass Japan and Germany as the world's third-largest economy sometime in the next decade.

poll#162

In what may be the most divisive period in modern American History, even more divisive than the turbulent sixties due to today's lack of patriotism, consider what are the major catalysts causing so much of this calamity of conflict, and vote: What most instigates the division of America, on this day September 20, 2022?

  Racism within our society

  Sex realignment to the detriment of our society.

  Biden /Harris Wide Open Southern Border Policy for the Demographic Upheaval of OUR Constitutional Republic

  Rampant Crime in Democratic controlled cities, and the possible contagion elsewhere

  Covid Pandemic, and its mishandling at the political, and bureaucratic levels.

  The unresolved questions /allegation regarding the flawed 2020 General Election

  January 6th Riot or "Armed Insurrection", depending upon patriotic perspective

  Joe Biden as Divisive Leader; Ineffective and Corrupt Executive

  Failed Education Industry, from an overall perspective, regarding all levels of education.

  Propagandistic Media in complete conflict with the First Amendment's guarantee of Freedom of Speech, and the awesome responsibility of a Free Press..

  "Orangeman Bad!"

  Bureaucracy rushing to a behemoth size, its unjustified expense, and far too often overreach.

  The Weaponized Deep State for political purposes

  A secular ambivalence to all that is real.

  Record number of overdose deaths from opioids and now Fentanyl

  Biden Administration's disastrous Foreign Policy

  Bidenflation /supply chain failure inevitably evolving into stagflation and recession.

  "Ultra MAGA Extremists" freely speaking louder AND LOUDER!

927 total vote(s)     What's your Opinion?

poll#145

After one full year of the Biden /Harris Administration: Does Joe Biden have the intellectual capacity, and, or the energy to lead the United States of America through the mess that he predominately created ... in just one year?

  Yes

  No

  Unsure

1,220 total vote(s)     What's your Opinion?

poll#166

With the Midterm Elections less than one week away: What do you consider the top issues that you will be voting on to be corrected by your better representation?

  Education

  Crime

  Big Government getting Bigger

  Biden /Democrat controlled Spike in Energy Cost

  Inflation created by Legislation of Majority in Power

  Gender Reassignment

  Corrupted Bureaucratic /Service (DOJ, FBI, etc.) Institutions

  Abortion

  Discredited Legacy Media

  Ending the Corruption of Dishonest Politicians

  Corruptive Influence of Social Media

  Wide Open Southern Border

439 total vote(s)     What's your Opinion?