The ’24 Governor’s race is shaping up | Eastern North Carolina Now

    We are twenty months away from the 2024 elections and already candidates for governor have declared they are running. In a normal cycle, candidates are spending these months quietly trying to determine their viability, contacting potential donors and supporters, talking to consultants and developing position strategies long before ever making public declarations.

    The big noise and emphasis in 2024 will obviously be the presidential race, so some of the announced candidacies might be attempting to get some attention and name recognition before the national political tsunami takes all the air in the room.

    Political pundits are asking why Dale Folwell is running and why he announced so soon? The two-term Treasurer would be a shoo-in for a third term, so why run? A two-word answer to both questions is: Mark Robinson, who is expected to make a formal announcement of his candidacy later this month. Perhaps Folwell has long dreamed of becoming governor, but I don't believe he would have chosen this moment to run if not for Robinson, a Maga/Trump/far right cult member. I think the Treasurer is convinced, as I have often stated, that if Mark Robinson wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination it will ensure that North Carolina elects another Democrat as governor, regardless of who that person might be.

    Next year's Republican primary could be quite entertaining, featuring a policy wonk (Folwell) against a morality firebrand (Robinson). There's no question the outcome will be a defining moment for the GOP in North Carolina. Many of the Holshouser-Martin-Broyhill Republicans have either left the party or are have been hibernating since 2017. This gubernatorial primary will draw a line in the sand, forcing those in the party to choose sides.

    Early polling is certainly not reliable, but a December poll among Republicans indicated Robinson had a 60 percent vote to 8 for Folwell. Don't pay too much attention to this. Folwell, a forensic accountant, certainly doesn't. He told The Assembly's Steve Riley he wasn't a gambler...not when he ran for school board, for the legislature or when he ran for Treasurer. He doesn't consider the race for governor a gamble, either.

    Folwell told me his campaign theme was going to be: "The best governor money can't buy." As Treasurer, he has clearly eschewed big donors, corporate or individual. He has been unafraid to challenge big corporations, politicians, investment houses and others, demonstrating that he won't be a pawn for big money lobbyists and donors. But Folwell is naïve if he doesn't recognize that a successful primary and general election campaign is going to cost millions. Perhaps not the $40 million raised by Roy Cooper or even the $11.7 million Dan Forest spent in the 2020 election, but millions, nonetheless.

    The Republican gubernatorial primary could also impact Democrats if that party doesn't venture too far from center. Some disenchanted Republicans might switch parties. The only declared candidate for governor is Josh Stein, the two-term Attorney General. Stein is considered very progressive, a darling of the far-left faction of the party. Some longtime Democrats are quietly trying to find a more centrist candidate to run against him in the primary. Stein has been quietly raising money for months and reportedly has millions in the bank preparing for the run. He raised $12 million in his 2020 campaign for Attorney General and will likely need to raise three or four times that amount in 2024.

    What could we expect if Stein and Robinson do end up becoming the nominees? "The center voter doesn't have a good choice for Governor," seasoned political campaign consultant Brad Crone told me. "The two party frontrunners represent the polar extreme in our politics today. Robinson is far-right and Stein is too liberal. We will also have to watch the African American voters to see if they are willing to support the first Black. But the Lieutenant Governor is also the most conservative candidate and often opposes much of the policy agenda supported by communities of color."

    Here's my spin: Democrats are praying that Donald Trump will be the GOP presidential nominee and Mark Robinson the gubernatorial candidate. They see that as their best chances for big blue victories in 2024.

    I don't see either Trump or Robinson becoming their party's nominees. I foresee Republicans having a "come to Jesus" epiphany to avoid an Apocalypse. I'm not certain who the presidential nominee will be but believe Dale Folwell will be the Republican nominee for governor.

    Another note worth mentioning. State Senator Rachel Hunt, a Democrat from Mecklenburg County, declared her intent to run for Lieutenant Governor. It has been almost thirty years since a Hunt was on the statewide ballot. Jim Hunt, the four-term governor had clearly the most effective political machine of the 20th century. If Hunt supporters show up to vote Democrats could see a big boost in turnout.


    The stars are aligning for the 2024 elections to be extremely interesting.

      Tom Campbell is a Hall of Fame North Carolina Broadcaster and columnist who has covered North Carolina public policy issues since 1965. He recently retired from writing, producing and moderating the statewide half-hour TV program NC SPIN that aired 22 1/2 years. Contact him at tomcamp@carolinabroadcasting.com.