Civitas Poll: Sen. Hagan Is Toss-Up on Ballot against a Generic Republican Posted on May 29, 2013 | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: This post, by Francis De Luca, was originally published in the Press Releases section(s) of Civitas's online edition.

    RALEIGH     The latest Civitas Poll suggests U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan could face serious competition in 2014. Given a ballot choice between Hagan, a Democrat, and a Republican candidate, 44 percent of voters chose the Republican, while 42 percent selected Hagan.

    The poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters had a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percent.

    "Hagan continues to poll below the 50 percent mark that signals strong support for an incumbent," said Civitas President Francis X. De Luca. "However, responses to a real GOP candidate may be different than for a generic label. Neither party should be complacent at this point."

    It also appears that North Carolina voters are moving towards electing someone to act as a check on the president as opposed to someone to support his policies. In February 2013, there was a 1-point difference and this month it was a 6-point difference towards electing someone "who will be a check and balance to President Obama's programs and policies."

    Actual text of questions from the Civitas Poll:

    If the election for US Senate were being held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between: the Republican candidate or Kay Hagan, the Democrat?

    And, in the next election for US Senator from North Carolina, which of the following is more important to you? Would you rather...

    2/13     5/13

      45%    48%    Elect a Republican who will be a check and balance to President Obama's policies and programs.

      44%    42%    Elect a Democrat who will support President Obama's programs and policies.

      11%    9%    Don't Know/Neither/Other

            - 1%         Refused

    For crosstabs from these questions, click here.

    About the Poll:

    This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted May 21-22, 2013 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 3, 2012.

    The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the "True Values."

    Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

    The Civitas Institute is a think tank based in Raleigh, NC. More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at james.tynen@nccivitas.org or (919) 834-2099.