populist nationalist right National Rally is big winner in French parliament election | Eastern North Carolina Now

exit polls show huge surge in first round of voting for National Rally


UPDATE:  Exit polls show the populist nationalist anti-immigration National Rally winning the first round of France's parliamentary election.  A candidate must get over 50% to win in this round, and few do.  Most districts in this multi-party system require a runoff next Sunday between the top two finishers.  On the basis of matchups and first round results, the exit polls predict the following results next Sunday in the final round:  National Rally:  260-310 seats;  far left NFP 115-145 seats; Macron's globalist / centrist Ensemble 90-120 seats; traditional conservative Les Republicains 30-50 seats;  other small parties 18-28 seats.  A majority in the parliament is 289 seats.

One of the handful to win outright in the first round was National Rally leader Marine LePen who won her district with 58%.  The far left's most notable candidate, former Socialist French President Francois Hollande received only 37% in a district in which he was well known and will face a runoff with a National Rally opponent.






As France is set to vote in the first round for a new parliament Sunday, two major polls have released results predicting an absolute majority for the populist nationalist anti-immigration National Rally of Marine LePen.  One of those polls, IFOP, has a reputation as France's most accurate, while the other  Elabe, is a major rival.

This would allow the National Rally to form a government without having to form a coalition with partners such as the even more strident anti-immigration Reconquest Party or the traditional conservative Les Republicains.  The pollsters have found a major surge to the National Rally based on concerns of crime and immigration, and the youth vote and womens vote are both part of that surge.


Meanwhile, the leader of the far left coalition that is likely to run second defended chants of "A dead cop is one less vote for LePen" at one of their rallies.


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( June 29th, 2024 @ 9:18 pm )
Polling in an election like France's is tricky but these pollsters know the system and must have some confidence in their results. The two round system is what makes it complicated. A candidate must win over 50% to be elected in the first round, and there are a limited number of "safe seats" where that is possible. For the majority of seats, the two top finishers will face each other in a runoff a week later. Those pairings will be important. Where it is National Rally against the far left coalition, the National Rally will be heavily favored, but if it is National Rally against Les Republicains, the trend would be much more to Les Republicains. In the second round, voters whose own parties have been eliminated will mostly be voting what they see as the lesser of the evils or sometimes just staying home. The pollsters will certainly have polled second preferences of voters, something we used to do in our polls when I was advising pro-western parties in Moldova, even though Moldova did not have runoffs for its parliament.
( June 29th, 2024 @ 10:42 am )
Voters across the western world have had a belly full of illegal immigration. Just as this issue is having a massive impact in French elections this month, it will do so again in American elections this November. It is way past time to send these freeloaders home.

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