new UK poll shows Reform Party now dominant party of right over Conservatives | Eastern North Carolina Now

UPDATE: Another poll has just come our from RMG Research published in the Daily Express showing Reform at 32%, Labour at 22%, Conservatives at 19%, and Liberal Democrats at 13%.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2053120/nigel-farage-keir-starmer-reform-poll

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ORIGINAL POST:

After a blowout election victory in recent local government elections and taking a former Labour safe seat in Parliament in a special election, polls are now showing the populist nationalist anti-immigration Reform Party, led by Brexit hero Nigel Farage, has become the dominant party of the right in British politics over the Conservative Party.  It also shows Reform would win overwhelming control of the national parliament if an election were held today.

The latest poll by the well regarded British polling firm YouGov done for SkyNews shows that if an election from Parliament were held today, Reform would lead at 29%, followed by Labout at 22%.  The Conservatives come in at 17%.  Looking at the election history of individual seats, YouGov calculates this would give Reform 304 seats in Parliament, Labour 137, and Conservatives 27.  That would give Reform a solid majority without having to form a coalition.

This follows the recent elections in which Reform captured the former Labour safe seat of Runcorn and Helsby in Parliament in a special election and in a set of regular local elections won control of ten local councils compared to none for Labour or Conservatives and won two mayors races to two for Labour and one for Conservatives.  Overall in those elections, Reform won 671 council seats compared to 301 for Conservatives and 93 for Labour.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/2051812/nigel-farage-poll-bombshell-reform-uk-map?int_source=nba

Meanwhile a poll in Germany for the mass circulation daily newspaper Bild found that the recent debacle where new chancellor Merz lost his first vote of confidence, only to  have to cobble it together on a second try will make him a weak chancellor and politically benefit the populist nationalist anti-immigration right AfD.   57% said it would be a continuing stain on Merz' chancellorship and 51% said it would politically benefit the AfD.

https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news-corner/afd-winner-merz-debacle-german-poll/

On the map below, light blue are Reform seats, dark blue Conservative, Red Labour, light orange Liberal Democrats (dark orange are a Northern Ireland party), yellow Scottish Nationalist, dark green Welsh Nationalists. light green Green Party, and various other colors for Northern Ireland parties.