Have the Establishment Republicans just insured Kay Hagan's election? | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.

    Former Congressman and immediate past-chairman of the N. C. Republican Party has taken a major move that will divide the Republican Party in North Carolina and probably lead to Kay Hagan's re-election. He has talked Charlotte Baptist pastor Mark Harris into running in the Republican Primary. Harris is widely seen as a conservative who will split the conservative vote that otherwise would likely have gone to the other leading conservative candidate, Greg Brannon.

    Here's the skinny: As of 9-13-13 there were 6,466,903 registered voters. Of that number 2,766,109 are registered as Democrats. There are 1,989,757 register Republicans and 21,747 register Libertarians. But the critical number is 1,689,290. That is the number of people registered as unaffiliated. That means that 43% are Democrats and 31% are Republicans. So the "swing" vote of unaffiliated voters makes up 26% of the vote.

    You don't have to be a mathematicians or a rocket scientist to understand that if a Republican is going to be elected to the U. S. Senate in 2014 they will have to get a substantial part of both the Republican and the unaffiliated vote. So the issue becomes: How does the Republican who runs against Kay Hagan get most of the Republican and Unaffiliated votes? The answer is simple: The GOP nominee has to be able to get the GOP base to turn out to vote to a larger extent than the Democrat base does and then that candidate must attract enough unaffiliated votes to exceed Hagan's vote. If the Republican base splits and does not vote in as high a percentage as the Democrat base the Republican likely will lose. Even if they turn out, the trick is to attract the unaffiliated vote. And that is, again, determined by turnout. To turn out the specific unaffiliated voters who will likely vote against Hagan will require the GOP grassroots workers who will be the infamous "boots on the ground" vis-à-vis the way Barack Obama was elected.

    Now if you're following this reasoning, you know that a split Republican base spells trouble for the nominee.

    And that is precisely what Mark Harris will do. He will split the Republican base. But we would suggest that it is not simply a matter of splitting the base in the primary. Rather, the issue is whether when the primary is over, those who did not vote for the nominee will then unite behind that person and convince enough unaffiliated to vote for him to defeat Hagan.

    Put another way, for the Republican to defeat Hagan it will require essentially relatively few defections. Enter the TEA Party.

    Most TEA Party voters are not hardcore Republicans. In fact they are rather disenchanted with the "Establishment GOP" both in Raleigh and Washington. Therefore, they are less likely to rally behind an Establishment Republican nominee. They will sit home on election day and worse still not get out and work to turn out the vote for the GOP candidate.

    We are suggesting that the best strategy for the N. C. Republican Party is to bring the TEA Party/Libertarian (both formal members and libertarian thinkers) to support the Republican nominee. And we would further suggest that in achieving that it will be more important who the nominee is not than it will be who the nominee is. With Harris' entry into the primary the chances that the GOP nominee will be Thom Tillis have just increased substantially, simply because Harris and Brannon will split the conservative/TEA/Liberty block of votes. If indeed that happens the issue will become whether Republicans can convince the conservative/TEA/Liberty block to not only vote for Tillis but get out and beat the bushes to drive higher turnout relative to Democrat turnout. If Harris spends his campaign attacking Brannon the chances are slim and none that the TEA Party people will then support Tillis.

    We doubt it, at this point. You can't spit in the face of a huge block of voters that you need and expect them to fall in line after a contentious fight. The last thing the Republican Party needed was a fight that will drive away marginal Republican voters and workers. But that is exactly what we see coming. And we'll have more to say later not only about that debacle but the impact it will have on the legislative races.

    While there's an alternative scenario we'll talk about later, we think Brant Clifton senses the same train wreck as we do. In his Daily Haymaker on Friday the 13th he says:

    Well. It looks like all of our "speculation" and "drive-by reporting" is starting to pan out. After our reporting came out, the AP confirmed that - as we said - (1) Harris is being advised by longtime Robin Hayes advisor Tom Perdue and that (2) a formal campaign announcement will be made on October 2.

    Today, McClatchy confirms that Robin Hayes HIMSELF will be chairing the Harris For Senate campaign. McClatchy says Harris "hopes to build on a base of social conservatives like those who helped pass last year's constitutional amendment banning gay marriage." Choosing Robin Hayes, a long-time member of The Ripon Society, to head up your campaign is an unusual strategy for accomplishing that goal.

    The Ripon Society is a group of Republicans commonly referred to in the grassroots as "country club" or "Rockefeller Republicans." This group of progressive Republicans was organized to fight back against conservative and religious right influence in the GOP. It fought Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Ronald Reagan in 1976 and 1980.

    Everybody remembers Hayes's famous rant at the 2012 Republican National Convention - aggressively reminding North Carolina delegates that a good Republican's job is to back the party leadership no matter what. As party chairman, Hayes was a good soldier for the establishment in stymieing Tea Party efforts. Under Hayes, the state party staff got caught multiple times meddling in GOP primaries - aiding establishment moderates over Tea Party candidates.

    Looking at the evidence, it's pretty hard to paint Harris as some kind of grassroots crusader. The pastor, himself, may have good intentions. (Though, we are disturbed by reports that he is peddling innuendo questioning fellow candidate Greg Brannon's commitment to "family values.") Most experienced - no dog in this fight - campaign hands studying the Harris campaign see it as not being configured for the purpose of winning. I agree. It clearly looks like a vehicle for dividing-and-conquering the conservative, Tea Party-oriented vote.

    (Does anyone REALLY believe that Robin Hayes - who set House speaker and US Senate candidate Thom Tillis up with a sweet speaking time slot at the most recent state GOP convention - is actively opposing Tillis? )

    The jury is still out on what state Senator Phil Berger will do. Many think he will jump in the race - further muddying the picture. It's clear that he will sap some support from establishment favorite Tillis. (A lot of the folks I talk to in Raleigh really don't think Berger will jump into the US Senate primary.)

    Heather Grant can't win. The Mark Harris campaign isn't designed to win. (It is spending more time attacking Greg Brannon than on building Harris's name ID or taking down Hagan.) Of the four in the race now, Brannon is the most obvious choice for Tea Party-style conservatives who want to shake up Washington.


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