Bogus argument: "We must elect Tillis to get rid of Harry Reid" | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer."

An independent Senator could sit in the GOP caucus and vote for Republican leaders to control the Senate

    Supporters of Thom Tillis are heard to say that it is important that North Carolina elect him rather than Kay Hagan because Hagan would insure Harry Reid continuing and if Tillis is elected, along with Republicans from five other states, then the Democrats would lose majority control of the Senate. Here's how Fox News summarized the head counts:

    Republicans need six more seats to claim a 51-49 Senate majority. A 50-50 split would let Vice President Joe Biden break tie votes and keep Democrats in charge.

    Republicans are strongly favored to win three races where Democratic senators are retiring: West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana.

    Their best hopes to pick up three more seats are in the four contests where Democrats seek re-election in states President Barack Obama lost: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina.

    Republicans are also making strong bids in Iowa, Colorado and New Hampshire, which Obama carried.

    If Republicans win two of those races, plus the three where they are heavily favored, then all eyes and lots of campaign money would turn to Louisiana if there's a runoff.

    If you follow all that you realize the first reason the Tillis campaign's argument is not valid. The simple fact is that Republicans can win the Senate without Tillis.

    The second argument is that if it does come down to one seat then a Tillis victory would be essential to getting a Republican majority. Here is one example of that argument:

    It's been said that nothing in life is certain except for death and taxes. But in the near term, there are a few other things that we can be sure of: The November elections will end up with the U.S. Senate being controlled by either Hagan. The stakes are high. If Republicans don't win the Senate and hold the House, then President Obama will have another two years of free reign under the protections of Harry Reid and Eric Holder.

    The August 11 edition of the Enterprise contained a Your View letter written by Don Davis of High Point, with the headline, "The goal is GOP control of U.S. Senate." The opinion that was expressed by Mr. Davis included a healthy dose of reality that deserves to be repeated. Davis wrote, "It doesn't matter how you feel about Thom Tillis. He may be part of the Republican establishment. He may not be a Tea Party advocate. He may be arrogant. He may be a lot of other things you don't like. The voters in our state must look at the total picture in getting our country back. The objective is for Republicans to take over the Senate and get rid of Harry Reid. ... Hagan in the Senate will help keep Reid as the leader of the Senate ... having Thom Tillis as our senator will help to replace Reid as Senate majority leader."

    Click here to go to the original source.

    But that argument too is specious. If Tillis were defeated by a write-in candidate such as John Rhodes then it is not at all valid to argue that Rhodes would caucus with the Democrats and given his vote for Majority Leader to Reid. It is more likely he would caucus with the Republicans and vote for a Republican Majority Leader. And his currency as an independent Senator might make him more valuable to the Republicans and therefore put him in a stronger position to negotiate good committee assignments for his vote for a GOP leadership team.

    Anyone who claims that North Carolina must elect a Republican to insure a Republican Senate simply does not understand the rules of the Senate or history. There are currently two independent Senators, Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Angus King (I-Maine). They caucus with, and typically vote with the Democrat caucus. Moreover, those who make such arguments ignore the fact that there have been 77 individuals who have served in the Senate in a party other than the two major parties. Click here to review those who have sat as a third party Senator.

    So what it comes down to is that whether a voter wishes to vote for Kay Hagan or Thom Tillis or for a write-in candidate does not determine who will control the Senate. That is simply a bogus argument.