Civitas Flash Poll: Cook Leading in Senate Dist. 1 | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: This article discussing Civitas polling, and including an informative point that Bill Cook is pulling ahead of his competitor, NC Senator Stan White, was written by Jim Tynen and published in the Polling section of Civitas's online edition.

    RALEIGH     With the 2012 legislative campaigns entering the final months, the Civitas Institute has flash-polled likely voters in NC Senate District 1 in the northeastern part of the state. Republican Bill Cook, a retired power company executive, faces Sen. Stan White (D-Dare), who was named to the seat in 2011 after Marc Basnight resigned.

    The Civitas Flash Poll of 450 registered voters with a margin of error of 4.7 percent was taken August 22 and 23. It showed Cook with an 8 percentage-point lead over White, 49 percent to 41 percent. Democrats are supporting White 67 percent to 19 percent; Cook leads among Republican voters 86 percent to 11 percent. Unaffiliated voters, which make up 23 percent of voters in this district, are breaking to Cook by a 5-point margin, with 46 percent backing him, compared to 41 percent for the Democrat.

    At the top of the ballot, Republicans hold leads among Senate Dist. 1 voters. In the presidential race, Mitt Romney leads President Obama, 55 percent to 41 percent. Romney is capturing 92 percent of Dist. 1 Republicans and 55 percent of unaffiliated voters. Romney is pulling 23 percent of the Democratic vote, with that bloc of northeastern NC voters breaking 73 percent for President Obama.
Bill Cook stumping about in eastern North Carolina: Above.     photo by Stan Deatherage
    Republican gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory leads in statewide polls, and that holds true in Senate Dist. 1. He leads Democratic Lt. Governor Walter Dalton 55 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian Barbara Howe registering 2 percent. In the district, McCrory's numbers track closely to Romney's, with Republicans breaking 88 percent for McCrory and 27 percent of Democrats indicating they would vote for him. Among unaffiliated voters, McCrory leads Dalton 54 to 30 percent.

    By a better than 2-to-1 margin, district voters agree that people should be required to show photo identification to cast their ballots. Sixty-nine percent of those polled said voters should be required to present photo ID; 29 percent opposed the requirement.

    In the Civitas Flash Poll, 50 percent said the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 38 percent saying it's headed in the right direction. In addition, district voters' opinion on the economy was split, with 28 percent saying things will get worse and 25 percent saying things will get better, while 41 percent said it would stay the same.

    Overall, voter intensity in the district was strong among all voters, with 97 percent saying they are certain they will vote. This indicates that neither side will have a problem turning out their voters on Election Day.

    Click here for crosstabs.

    Information on future polls will be available at Civitas Poll Lunches later in September.

    About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

    For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

    More information on the Civitas Institute is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099.

    CONTACT:    Francis De Luca or Jim Tynen (919) 834-2099 Francis.DeLuca@NCCivitas.org or James.Tynen@NCCivitas.org