Broadsword calling Danny Boy: App State at Wyoming (-135); Livermore on commodities, the Old Craw on weather | Eastern North Carolina Now

The sound of gunfire, off in the distance
I'm getting used to it now
Lived in a brownstone, lived in a ghetto
I've lived all over this town

Transmit the message to the receiver
Hope for an answer someday
I got three passports, a couple of visas
You don't even know my real name

Trouble in transit, got through the roadblock
We blended in with the crowd
We got computers, we're tapping phone lines
I know that that ain't allowed

Burned all my notebooks, what good are notebooks?
They won't help me survive
My chest is aching, burns like a furnace
The burning keeps me alive - David Byrne


The Bishop holds court as ECU delivers the mail. Carter-Finley Stadium -- nineteen-eighty something: Above.     Click image to enlarge.

    Legendary stock trader Jesse Livermore frequently opined the importance of weather in establishing commodity positions. The man who broke Wall Street twice (1907, 1929) and died penniless from a self-inflicted gunshot wound is recognized as a fount of wisdom in terms of risk management for profit. In the end, he left the world only his vast knowledge of speculative matrix-formation dynamics -- and a number of million dollar trust funds for his favoured survivors.

    Thank you, Man. Like Flipper, you died for our fins. All about your wisdom from the pit this week as we saunter West.


    Happily, weather was not a factor in the desert as Fresno State delivered two units in a 29-0 blowout as we move to 4-0 and plus six units in this space. Carolina rowed the boat in large form and ECU showed again why you have to let them go for awhile. The Pirates are not ready to be good stewards of our quam until we find the right conference match up.

    (In the meantime, Barton moves to 3-0 with a 28-24 victory over UVA-Wise in their SAC opener -- as the Bulldogs continue their stunning march to the National Title game.)

    With Farnell disappeared since Murray's dove hunt (Loved them sausage wraps, Man!) and Westerby on assignment in the Tidewater, we turn to the bottom of the barrel for this week's insight. Yes, noble reader, this means Hughes -- Editor of the UK platform for this drivel, Falklands survivor (Royal Marines) and general alcoholic gambling fiend, Brit reprobate style -- is driving the portfolio this week.

    And, as luck would have it, we find Hughes as he is preparing for Monday evening's Burnley at Nottingham Forest match. As a long suffering Burnley fan he is settling in for the worst, with three pints consumed already:

    "Farnell a bit jammy and gone walk about again has he? And now you are expecting good ole Hughes to bail your arse out. Typical. Farnell is the dog's bollocks with Yank football but us will give it a try."

    Wounded at Goose Green and haunted by the machine-gun deaths of Manfredi and Johnson, the Old Craw struggles with the ghosts of the past as any wartime survivor does; he beats back such adversity with the bottle and the betting slip. Ever since that fateful day in May of '82 -- when the weather was horrendous and Brit intel of the Argie fortified positions even worse -- he only takes games where weather is a factor.

    Livermore would always speak to weather as the seminal consideration in establishing a forward commodity position. One senses Hughes and the crowd might be holding a lot of futures tickets.

    "Going against Penn State is very naff these days but with a strong chance of rain Saturday night Iowa plus fourteen and the hook is worth a look. The Hawkeyes play strong defence and have better special teams than Penn State. The early bird number was 10 and it opened 14. Penn State only covered against West Virginia intentionally on the last play, and five plus turnovers doomed Illinois. If it rains for the game this is a strong play. Oklahoma State also worth a look here if there is any kind of weather in Ames for the contest."

    That May it was cold and windy at Goose Green as in the southern hemisphere the seasons run opposite the north. For Hughes it is all about wind and elevation when taking it to the enemy.

    "Saturday forecast for Laramie is the front moving through generating 23 mph winds with a chance of rain at game time. Elevation there is 7100 feet which is significant because the visitors are used to knowing the altitude advantage, either at home (3333 feet) or going down the mountain to Chapel Hill. Cowboys worth a flutter for the dosh."

    Worth a flutter for the dosh?


    Damn right, Pilgrim.

    Appalachian State rolls into Laramie, Wyoming as one of the hottest teams in the country line-wise after embarrassing ECU on Saturday and taking 18 point favourite Carolina to the wire two weeks ago. They cash tickets and are a popular pick in nouveau martini bars across the land.

    Now the Mountaineers head to Wyoming where they have opened as two and the hook point underdogs to a Cowboys team laying (-135) on the money line to win the game outright. В чужо́й монасты́рь со свои́м уста́вом не хо́дят

    Appalachian is a good team, well coached; they know how to exploit weaknesses of teams they are familiar with. They over performed against a Carolina team, that is increasingly becoming one dimensional, more by being ready than by being talented. ECU, sad to say, is on the verge of collapse and any win against them now has to be viewed as salt loaded.

    However, if you were a fan of ECU football in the 1960's you will love the throwback Wyoming Cowboys. They play old-fashioned, pre-wishbone, Texas A&M Bear Bryant style football; not a particularly fast team, except at the skill positions, but most very physical up front.

    To be brutally frank, Appalachian is going to receive a physical style ass-whuppin' on the scoreboard if there is any kind of weather to negate their speed advantage at wide receiver. Regardless of what the scoreboard reveals at the final gun, the Mountaineers are going to be physically manhandled all night long and are likely to head back east that evening banged up with multiple injuries.


    Our call here is WYOMING (-135) for two units. (This means we risk 2.7 units to win two and the Cowboys just need to win the game. On the money line points are not a factor.) This is a tough spot for Appy and the kind of game they are unlikely to schedule in the future. Until you have been to Wyoming, you really don't understand that part of the country and how they see things.

    Less talkin' and a lot more showin' out there than Boone, NC.

    This is a strong play. Should the front slow just a hair and come through during the game, then this contest represents even further superlative value:

WYOMING    16  •  HAPPY APPY    7

    The transition from September to Rocktober signals the conclusion of the non-conference sparring matches which provide such an advantage to the handicapper in terms of style mismatches. In conference play familiarity breeds contempt and sharper lines -- but this can often result in an advantage as seasonal weather begins to shape the map.

    Appalachian is soft against the run and by the fourth quarter will be out of gas. Check your friendly wind gauge as game time approaches; any breeze over 20 mph is a signal to increase the position.


    At Goose Green an outnumbered 2 Para battled fourteen hours and suffered 18 KIA to defeat a much larger force along the wind blown marshy moors. Men like Hughes earned, the hard way, the right to drink and gamble themselves silly if they wish. If it helps to calm their demons -- especially if they pick winners -- then so be it.

    Mountaineers landing in a hot LZ Saturday -- and Happy Appy ain't no 2 Para.