Stewards of the Visual Exposition
Donald Trump and Mark Robinson Show Landslide Leads in GOP Primary Races
Publisher's Note: This post appears here courtesy of the John Locke Foundation.
RALEIGH With less than sixty days until candidate filing begins, the John Locke Foundation polled likely North Carolina Republican Primary voters to gauge support for 2024's candidates. The results showed run-away leads for presidential and gubernatorial nominees, but the Lt. Governor's and Labor Commissioner's races have high numbers of undecideds.
A majority of likely Republican voters in the state (51.8%) said they would support former president Donald Trump in the primaries. That is nearly a 40-point lead over the next closest candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who garnered 12% of the vote. In third place was former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (10.4%), followed by Vivek Ramaswamy (5.2%), Chris Christie (3.7%), Mike Pence (2.9%), Tim Scott (25), and lastly, Asa Hutchinson (0.5%). Women are less likely to support Trump than men and are more likely to remain undecided in the presidential race.
"Trump still has a hold on North Carolina Republicans," said Locke CEO Donald Bryson. "With a lead like this, it is hard to imagine what would be required for another Republican candidate to pass him in the polls to win North Carolina's GOP delegates."
The gubernatorial race came out similarly, with 48.6% of likely GOP voters choosing Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson - a 43.7-point lead on the next closest candidate, Treasurer Dale Folwell (4.9%). Former Congressman Mark Walker came in third place with 4.1% support. However, a significant percentage (41.2%) of voters are still undecided in this race. Urban areas have the most undecided voters (55%) in the gubernatorial race. By contrast, rural areas are the most decided, with majority support (55%) favoring Mark Robinson. When voters were asked what issues were the most important to them in the governor's race, budget and taxes made the top of the list, followed closely by immigration.
The lieutenant governor and labor commissioner races had the most undecided voters, with more than 80% of voters stating they were unsure who they would vote for in these elections. The top candidate for Labor Commissioner was State Representative Jon Hardister (5.3%), followed by former Union County Board of Commissioners candidate Travis Wilson and Wake County attorney Luke Farley (3.3% and 2.7%, respectively). While no lieutenant governor candidate cracked 5% support, the top contenders were Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page (4%), former Lieutenant Governor Chief of Staff Hal Weatherman (3.8%), and former State Senator Deanna Ballard (3.1%).
"Outside of the president and governor's race, there is a lot of room to gain ground," Bryson continued. "If I were a candidate in one of those races, I would be hitting the pavement and trying to improve my awareness of my campaign as much as possible. Name ID will be critical in these down-ballot Council of State races."
Another opportunity for raising awareness is certificate-of-need (CON) laws. These state regulations require healthcare providers to prove the necessity of new facilities or services before they can expand or open new locations. Less than a third of survey participants were familiar with CON laws. Most participants (54.7%) were unsure whether CON laws helped or harmed access to healthcare services, and only 8.1% believed that CON laws improved access. While most participants were unsure whether the state should repeal its CON laws, of those who did have an opinion, respondents favored repeal by a 4:1 margin.
Similarly, nearly two-thirds of voters were not aware that North Carolina has no defined session limits for our state legislature. Most voters would support session limits (51.3%), while only 14.7% would oppose. Support for session limits is eleven points higher among women than men. The vast majority of respondents would like to see term limits bind the General Assembly leadership. Nearly 86% of respondents would support term limits, while less than five percent would oppose. A plurality of likely GOP primary voters (43.8%) believe the state legislature's leadership should be capped at two terms (four years). The responses of likely GOP primary voters are very similar to the state's general voting population who, in last month's poll, were 85% in support of term limits and showed plurality support for a four-year cap on leadership tenure.
Contact: Brenee Goforth
Media Manager & Communications Associate
John Locke Foundation
Email: bgoforth@lockehq.org
Go Back
RALEIGH With less than sixty days until candidate filing begins, the John Locke Foundation polled likely North Carolina Republican Primary voters to gauge support for 2024's candidates. The results showed run-away leads for presidential and gubernatorial nominees, but the Lt. Governor's and Labor Commissioner's races have high numbers of undecideds.
A majority of likely Republican voters in the state (51.8%) said they would support former president Donald Trump in the primaries. That is nearly a 40-point lead over the next closest candidate, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who garnered 12% of the vote. In third place was former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (10.4%), followed by Vivek Ramaswamy (5.2%), Chris Christie (3.7%), Mike Pence (2.9%), Tim Scott (25), and lastly, Asa Hutchinson (0.5%). Women are less likely to support Trump than men and are more likely to remain undecided in the presidential race.
"Trump still has a hold on North Carolina Republicans," said Locke CEO Donald Bryson. "With a lead like this, it is hard to imagine what would be required for another Republican candidate to pass him in the polls to win North Carolina's GOP delegates."
The gubernatorial race came out similarly, with 48.6% of likely GOP voters choosing Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson - a 43.7-point lead on the next closest candidate, Treasurer Dale Folwell (4.9%). Former Congressman Mark Walker came in third place with 4.1% support. However, a significant percentage (41.2%) of voters are still undecided in this race. Urban areas have the most undecided voters (55%) in the gubernatorial race. By contrast, rural areas are the most decided, with majority support (55%) favoring Mark Robinson. When voters were asked what issues were the most important to them in the governor's race, budget and taxes made the top of the list, followed closely by immigration.
The lieutenant governor and labor commissioner races had the most undecided voters, with more than 80% of voters stating they were unsure who they would vote for in these elections. The top candidate for Labor Commissioner was State Representative Jon Hardister (5.3%), followed by former Union County Board of Commissioners candidate Travis Wilson and Wake County attorney Luke Farley (3.3% and 2.7%, respectively). While no lieutenant governor candidate cracked 5% support, the top contenders were Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page (4%), former Lieutenant Governor Chief of Staff Hal Weatherman (3.8%), and former State Senator Deanna Ballard (3.1%).
"Outside of the president and governor's race, there is a lot of room to gain ground," Bryson continued. "If I were a candidate in one of those races, I would be hitting the pavement and trying to improve my awareness of my campaign as much as possible. Name ID will be critical in these down-ballot Council of State races."
Another opportunity for raising awareness is certificate-of-need (CON) laws. These state regulations require healthcare providers to prove the necessity of new facilities or services before they can expand or open new locations. Less than a third of survey participants were familiar with CON laws. Most participants (54.7%) were unsure whether CON laws helped or harmed access to healthcare services, and only 8.1% believed that CON laws improved access. While most participants were unsure whether the state should repeal its CON laws, of those who did have an opinion, respondents favored repeal by a 4:1 margin.
Similarly, nearly two-thirds of voters were not aware that North Carolina has no defined session limits for our state legislature. Most voters would support session limits (51.3%), while only 14.7% would oppose. Support for session limits is eleven points higher among women than men. The vast majority of respondents would like to see term limits bind the General Assembly leadership. Nearly 86% of respondents would support term limits, while less than five percent would oppose. A plurality of likely GOP primary voters (43.8%) believe the state legislature's leadership should be capped at two terms (four years). The responses of likely GOP primary voters are very similar to the state's general voting population who, in last month's poll, were 85% in support of term limits and showed plurality support for a four-year cap on leadership tenure.
Contact: Brenee Goforth
Media Manager & Communications Associate
John Locke Foundation
Email: bgoforth@lockehq.org
Comments
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Big Bob said:
( February 6th, 2024 @ 2:13 pm )
An utter lack of self awareness
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Little Bobbie, you are entitled to your own opinion but not your own "facts". The history of minority soldiers in the Confederate army and navy is factual history, even if those facts do not line up well with your ideology. Someone reciting facts is never nuts, but what IS nuts is your constant far left idological blather.
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Thank you CV - nothing says "I'm nuts' like your previous post.
And you want to be my latex salesman .. |
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Bobbie, your knowledge of history seems to come totally from the far left narrative. Actually, there were quite a few minorities serving in the Confederate army, based on southern state military pension records of the late 19th century. Indeed, the Confederate States, unlike the Union, allowed minorities to serve as officers, and the highest ranking minority to serve on either side in the war was Confederate General Stand Watie. The Confederate army also paid minority soldiers the same pay as white soldiers, while the Union army only paid them half of what a white soldier received.
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It's kind of hard for MR, a black guy< to support the confederacy - you have to give him a pass on that.
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RH, I agree with your stance on Robinson. When a dude like that comes out of nowhere, there's usually a reason why....💲. Over the past couple of years, Robinson has made statements in his speeches and appearances in public that would observant minds go: hmmm?
The three biggest things that I believe will hurt him greatly will be: his statements about "wiping the Confederates off the face of the Earth", his alignment with Trump and his apology about a comment he made in 2021. Many are putting 2 and 2 together here and don't like where this whole thing is headed if people don't start making "hard" statements and stick by them. While I agree with his opinion that certain people control Hollywood, the media and most corporations across the plane, Robinson's submission to the less informed and spineless bleeding hearts is a massive sign of weakness. Trump and the GOP are watching what happens to Robinson. If Robinson falls, Trump may very well could too. Praising terrorists isn't good. |
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RH: This is an old poll, but I found where it did not get published, so it NOW is part of our archives. One day I will catch up, which may be just around the corner.
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This is an extremely OLD poll, taken before two significant candidate dropped out and one significant candidate got it. Why it is being put up now, when it only confuses is beyond me. At the time it was taken, it reflects what early polls usually show, and that is name recognition. The recent straw poll at the major gathering of conservatives during primary season, the Locke liberty conference, showed State Treasurer Dal Folwell in the lead, with Robinson second. Informed Republicans have been moving from Robinson to Folwell in droves. Robinson is a lackey of liberal Republican Phil Berger.
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I apologize for my last comment. It may have been a tad too out there for some. That is my fault. Let me regroup here:
The numbers in this poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters, with all of the corporate mathematical formulas aside, solidifies what some still call a "conspiracy theory" within the GOP. Both Trump and Robinson aren't polling where they thought they would even by primary standards. I'm noticing that news outlets such as Right Side Broadcasting Network and OANN are even addressing these issues but not in an overtly obvious way. The issue of "hitting the pavement" to get the "undecided vote" is one that's especially concerning to the starting team of the NC GOP's front runners. As far as the numbers of the poll are concerned, again, just over 300 people may likely vote for Trump. On the other side, less than 300 people would likely vote for Robinson. More people have questions and more people are finding out that no one wants to answer them. They don't forget. |
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While I know that my last comment was like a brillo pad, I can promise you that it is not one based off of "extremist" dogma.
"Nazism" and other extremist camps from both sides of the paradigm were and are all created by the "global" controllers. They've created all religion and , I have to say, alot of people are still drinking their Kool Aid. What I stated about the nation-state of Israel isn't "extremist ideology", it's fact that can be verified if you know where to look. |
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John Valley, it is hard to tell what branch of political extremism you represent, since the far left is now pushing the same anti-Jew message as the nazis used to push and their neo-nazi wannabees still do. Heck, even Soros, who years ago was a Jew himself, even contributes to anti-Jew organizations.
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That is an EXTREMELY old poll as it still has Mark Walker and Andy Wells listed as canddidates but lacks Bill Graham. Walker and Wells exited the race last year and Graham entered. Posting it now confuses people that it is a current poll. It is NOT.
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