Philadelphia Fed admits US payrolls overstated by at least 800,000 | Eastern North Carolina Now

The first red flags emerged in the summer of 2022: that's when the Biden Labor Department started well and truly rigging the labor market data.

The Philadelphia Fed found that the BLS had overstated jobs to the tune of 1.1 million! This is what the Philadelphia Fed wrote in its quarterly Early Benchmark Revision of State Payroll Employment report at the time:

Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the sample data from the BLS’s CES that are issued monthly on a timely basis. All percentage change calculations are expressed as annualized rates. Read more about our methodology. Learn more about interpreting our early benchmark estimates.
So what did this "more accurate", "more comprehensive" report find? It found that...

In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.

The result was - again - shocking, and as shown in the chart below, a little over a year after we, or rather the Philly Fed, found that the BLS had overstated payrolls in 2022 by 1.1 million, here we go again, only this time the BLS had overstated payrolls by 800,000 through Dec 2023 (and more if one were to extend the data series into 2024). It's truly statistically remarkable how every time the data error is in favor of a stronger, if fake, economy.

It also means that far from the stellar 230K average monthly increase in payrolls in 2023, which the White House would spin time and again as direct evidence of the benefits of Bidenomics, the true average monthly payroll increase in 2023 was only 130K!



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( April 1st, 2024 @ 2:10 pm )
In the Biden regime, numbers are fudged all the time.

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