Our Fearless Predictions: Trump wins, Republicans keep the House and regain the Senate. | Eastern North Carolina Now
That Red Wave will likely help produce a local residual
Here’s how the Epoch Times reports the Presidential race as of November 3:
With just two days to go before the Nov. 5 General Election, multiple final polls show that the 2024 presidential race still appears to be close.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are crisscrossing the country to rally voters in the states that matter most. At the same time, each side is investing massive resources to drive up turnout for the final voting period.
What Final Polls Are Saying
Multiple final polls released by The New York Times-Siena College, Morning Consult, Rasmussen, ABC News, Atlas Intel, and NBC News show that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck, although the picture becomes more murky when broken down by swing states.
Morning Consult’s final survey of the election shows that while Harris has a 2-point lead over Trump nationally, Trump is ahead of Harris in North Carolina and Georgia by 2 points, ahead by 1 point in Wisconsin, tied in Arizona, and tied in Pennsylvania. The only swing state where the former president is trailing is Michigan, where he is down 1 point, according to the pollster.
An NBC survey released this weekend shows that Harris has the support of 49 percent of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, and Trump received an identical 49 percent. About 2 percent of voters said they were not sure.
Released this weekend, the final New York Times opinion poll shows Harris with marginal leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin and Trump just ahead in Arizona. The two are in close races in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, according to the poll, which surveyed 7,879 likely voters in the seven states from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2.
That poll shows Harris leading Trump by 3 points in Nevada, 2 points in North Carolina, 2 points in Wisconsin, and 1 point in Georgia. The two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, and the survey shows Trump ahead by 3 points in Arizona.
In an ABC News-Ipsos poll released over the weekend, Harris had 49 percent support, while Trump had 46 percent. The final poll from Rasmussen Reports, posted on Nov. 1, shows that Trump has a 3-point lead over Harris.
The final survey from Atlas Intel shows that Trump is ahead in all swing states by 1 point to 6.5 points, with the pollster saying he has “significant margins” over Harris in Nevada and Arizona.
A model produced by poll analyst Nate Silver, who used to operate the FiveThirtyEight website, has given Trump a 53.8 percent chance of winning over Harris’s 45.8 percent.
Silver, at the same time, has accused some pollsters of putting their “finger on the scale” and lying to keep the presidential race close in polls, according to a podcast interview last week.
Early Voting Breakdown
As of the morning of Nov. 3, about 75 million people had voted early across dozens of states.
More than 41.5 million had voted in person early, compared with 34.7 million who had returned mail-in ballots, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. About 67 million mail ballots had been requested.
The total of early in-person voting has significantly outpaced the total seen in the 2020 election, which featured more voting by mail because of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated restrictions. According to the tracker, 35 million people cast in-person early ballots, whereas more than 65 million returned mail ballots in 2020.
Of the two dozen states that report early voting by party affiliation, registered Democrats have a slim 1.7-point lead over registered Republicans. Some 14.6 million Democrats have cast early ballots, Republicans have cast 13.9 million, and unaffiliated voters have cast almost 10 million, according to the election tracker.
Swing State Breakdown
Although Georgia, Wisconsin, and Michigan don’t report by party affiliation, four other battleground states do.
In Arizona, registered Republicans are ahead of registered Democrats by about 180,000 votes, while unaffiliated voters make up about 26.7 percent of the total votes cast, the tracker shows. The state has only mail-in ballots, not early in-person voting.
In Nevada, Republicans have a 40,000-vote lead in the early vote total, buoyed by a strong in-person vote showing, the data show.
Days after early voting opened in North Carolina, registered Republicans took a slight lead over Democrats and had maintained the advantage as of early on Nov. 3, according to the tracker. GOP voters had a 42,000-vote lead over Democrats in that state.
Although only 1.7 million people have voted early in Pennsylvania, Democrats have a 400,000-ballot lead over Republicans, the tracker shows. Pennsylvania, which has about 9 million registered voters, reports only mail-in ballots.
Final Events
Trump began Nov. 2 with an appearance in North Carolina; he stopped next in Virginia and returned to the Tar Heel state in the evening. There is perhaps no more important swing state than Pennsylvania, where Trump is campaigning on Nov. 3. He also has appearances scheduled for North Carolina and Georgia.
Harris campaigned in Atlanta on Nov. 2 before a rally in North Carolina’s capital, signs that her team is sensing opportunity in the South. She’s planning multiple stops in Michigan on Nov. 3, shifting to a Democratic-leaning state in the “blue wall” where her allies believe that she is vulnerable.
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
Conclusion
One of the fun things about this job is that we have the chance to predict publicly how we read the likely outcome of Tuesday’s Presidential election. To that end, here it is: We predict Trump will win the presidential race with space to spare. Our reasoning is simple. He is the stronger of the two candidates and has the better record going into this election. We see Harris as the weaker to the two candidates and thus have faith in most American voters that they will vote for who they perceive as the better of the two candidates. The greater issue, for us, is whether Republicans will gain a majority in the Senate and keep their majority in the House. On that issue we will have to take a “we’ll just have to wait and see.”
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Rino Hunter said:
( November 5th, 2024 @ 3:00 pm )
Counting CAN be cheating or it can be honest, depending on how it is done. If one party is counting the votes and kicks out the poll watchers of the other party, that strongly suggests that the counting is NOT honest. That happened, all about the same time, in multiple big urban counties in swing states in 2020. This time, the Repubicans are supposed to be geared up to stop those things.
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Why?
Penn doesn’t allow the counting of early voting until election night. Just saying. Counting is not cheating |
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Over the last 8 years, with all the incredible Election Improprieties regarding: The Democratic Socialist Propagandistic Media, Orwellian in Scope; Big Tech Censorship; the 2020 Covid Ballot Harvesting Epidemic; the profound Lawfare practiced by a corrupt DOJ; the corrupt practices of local governments, including the local judiciary lawfare of many of these Democratic Socialists in complete control of their corrupt local and failing societies, and so many other illegal practices too numerous to mention, I am reasonably certain that the smartest people in this Constitutional Republic do realize that great cheating has occurred, especially in the foul 2020 Presidential Election, and is occurring now ... if we continue to let Democratic Socialists remain unimpeded.
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Obviously, Bob, you don't get MY POINT.
MY POINT IS, and I think you know but just want to be obstinate. ANY USA state should have ALL votes counted on election night, period. Early votes ALREADY TABULATED. Election day VOTES can't be counted on election night?? WHY? absentee, overseas, service votes HAVE NEVER decided an election... Fla and hanging chads took the election out a period. Bush/Gore was that close. |
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I tuned in to read the NOW post this morning.
Out of the last 7 post, 6 are from Little Boob. :-( |
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OK Jeff you seem fairly reasonable...
think vote by mail think absentee ballots think service men and women over seas think the voting laws vary by state In the past, elections were not that close and it was easy to predict the winner. Now, not so much. Counting votes is not cheating. KH will likely win the popular vote. The electoral college is truly a toss up. |
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What point? Cheating exists?
On that we can all agree. Again, 3rd world countries vote MILLIONS and know the results that day. We are so electronically savvy, developed we cannot as a country. Right, prove what point? |
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...and they line up to prove my point.
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From what I hear Republican election observers will be provided the backbone nationwide to stand up for their rights if the Democrats try again to pull the stunt of kicking them out of the rooms where the ballots are counted, as happened in multiple big urban counties in swing states in 2020. There should be attorneys standing by to help fix that problem before it festers and becomes a big question mark on election integrity as it did in 2020. We knoe the Democrat tactics, and should be ready to counter them to keep our election secure. I think in our area, eastern North Carolina, we have good teams of election officials who have a reputation as straight shooters in most precincts. It is the big urban counties that have been more prone to question.
We did not have that problem in North Carolina in 2020, but in that election we were not a target state. Now we are, so we will be more on our toes. Personally, I am happy to be serving as one of the NCGOP's roving attorneys with statewide observer credentials. The best way to keep elections honest is to have the largest number of eyes possible watching the process. Republicans have seen an outpouring of citizen observers to be part of that process. |
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Absolutely bull. Florida, Texas, MAJOR US states can count ballots before midnight. Most states can and do. The ONES that don't, gives everyone pause regardless of party.
WE ARE THE USA. It's ridiculous. 3rd world countries count ballots quicker and more efficient than the USA. |
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Although I disagree with the predicted out come, one thing needs to be said. We will likely not know the winner on Tuesday night.
With such high turn outs, some states will be counting into Wed. MAGA-will claim cheating but they will simply confuse counting with cheating. They aren’t to bright so, let’s get those votes counted. |
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