Iran will have nuclear capability sooner than we think. | Eastern North Carolina Now

     Let me say that again so it sinks in… The Iranian regime led by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad-- the same Ahmadinejad that makes Saddam Hussein look harmless, meek, and sane in comparison-- will have nuclear weapons within the next two years. The sad fact is that the United States could have prevented this impending debacle with some forethought and long term, strategic thinking. If we are honest about how American foreign policy has blundered away opportunities to promote stability in the Middle East over the years, there is a clear and unmistakable theme running through our foreign policy in the region: reactive thinking vs. proactive policy.

     Like most of the Middle East after World War II, there was precious little attention paid to Iran with the exception of oil profits made by US, Dutch, French, and British firms. Through the support of the Shah of Iran for more than 30 years, the United States and the international community supported a pro-Western government with little consideration for Iran’s internal Islamic undercurrents. By the time the Shah was ousted in 1979, America was shocked by the anti-American hatred expressed through the Islamic Revolution led by the Ayatollah Khomeini. We shouldn’t have been. It seems to me that there is a clear, classic, and consistent connection between a country supporting a despotic regime and the backlash which ensues when the disenfranchised constituency overtake that regime. One can look at many third world revolutions for examples of anti-American sentiment resulting from the United States being on the wrong side of a country’s internal strife. What seems odd about these developments is that around the same time of the Islamic Revolution within Iran, the Carter Administration brokered a historic peace accord between Israel and Egypt-- two of the regions most bitter rivals-- with the Camp David Peace Accords.

     Further damning to current American policy in Iran is the fact that Saddam gained power through the help of our own intelligence operations because of his long and bitter rivalry with the Ayatollah Khomeini. It was our intention in the early 1980’s to be a disruptive thorn in the side of the Islamic regime in Iran. In effect, Saddam Hussein maintained an active check and balance to any expansive aspirations by Iran. Even after the coalition forces defeated Hussein’s occupation of Kuwait in 1990, the decision not to overthrow Saddam was, in part, due to his ability to keep Iran on their collective toes.

     Fast forward to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and one can clearly see that the Bush Administration did not give any consideration to Saddam’s ability to influence Iranian internal affairs. By dismantling the Bath party regime in Iraq, Iran was effectively given the green light to develop and modernize their own economy and infrastructure with the assistance of companies eager to expand and maximize a new market. The sad fact is that we are complicit in Iran’s development by rewarding these companies with federal contracts via the current and previous administration. Our credibility is weakened when calling for countries to ostracize Iran and impose economic sanctions while we promote companies that have a direct hand in Iranian development.

     It is not as if international economic pressure is ineffective as a tool for pushing countries like Iran in a certain direction. One can look at the cases of Libya and South Africa as prime examples of long term and consistent economic pressure resulting in positive yet drastic internal political change.

     Unfortunately, Pandora’s box has been opened for quite some time now in regards to Iran. There is too much monied interest that cannot and will not be controlled for the sake of pressuring the Ahmadinejad regime into backing off its nuclear ambitions.

     The nuclear program of Iran should make us nervous, but we should not ask why. We have sown this seed many years ago.
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