In Difficult Times Good People gravitate towards Absolute Truth
Commentary: A response to the BOCO GOP chair's LTE
Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.
"Vote for Republicans because they are Republicans..." is the exact opposite message to send if Republicans want to win
Proctor Kidwell, Chairman of the Beaufort County Republican Party recently sent a Letter To The Editor of the Observer, Beaufort County Now, the County Compass and the WDN. In it he proclaims the path to victory for Republicans is for all Republicans to support all Republican candidates. In advocating that strategy he ignores both reality and a fundamental problem Republicans in Beaufort County have for years ignored. The simple fact is that if Republicans turn out at about the same rate as Democrats and Unaffiliated voters and every Republican votes for every Republican on the ballot they cannot elect but one county commissioner (in the Limited Voting System). They cannot elect anyone countywide, or carry the county for any statewide Republican. Republicans cannot elect anyone, regardless of qualifications, to any county-wide office without a substantial portion of the unaffiliated vote and usually, some Democrats. Proctor simply ignores this fact in this proclamation that the way for Republicans to win is for Republicans to vote for Republicans.
And to him, apparently, anyone registered as a Republican is a Republican, regardless of their record, positions or principles.
Here are the numbers Proctor ignores. In round numbers, there are 35,000 registered voters in Beaufort County. Approximately 46% are Democrats, 31% are Republicans and 22% are unaffiliated. Those number have been and are continuing to shift, with the unaffiliated growing faster than either Democrats or Republicans. You don't have to be a math whiz to see that 31% of the voters cannot elect anyone in a county wide race by simply getting all the Republican vote.
Proctor's math is even more bogus when he says: "...we have three commissioner candidates who may well sweep the elections and give us a five to two majority." Remember that there are three seats, with each voter having one vote and five candidates running (3 Republicans and 2 Democrats). In the last "mid-term" election in 2010 there were 15,535 votes cast in the 3-seat commissioner race. The top vote getter got 3934 (Deatherage-R) and the second seat was won with 3501 (Klemm-R). The third seat was won by a Democrat with 3350 votes (Booth-D). Unaffiliated Bertie Arnhols polled 1147. So clearly it is not very likely a Democrat is not going to be elected when there were 6953 Democrat votes cast out of 15,535. This time there are only two Democrats running, whereas when Ed Booth won with 3350 votes there were three Democrats splitting the vote. If Robert Cayton and Booth get the Democrat vote, and as many vote this time as voted last time, there is a statistical probability both will win a seat, simply because the three Republicans will split the roughly 7500 votes that remain.
The most favorable thing the Republicans have going for them is that there is not an unaffiliated candidate like Arnhols to pull away 1200 votes.
The way Proctor should be looking at it is this way: How do we get the unaffiliated vote?
To look at it another way, the Democrats elected only one seat in 2010 because they had three candidates running. This time they have only two. On the other hand, in 2010 there were only two Republicans running, after third place winner Cathy Baldwin pulled out to avoid splitting the Republican vote. That probably was a major reason Al Klemm won.
But regardless of how you parse the numbers, there will not be two Republicans elected this time unless most of the unaffiliated vote goes to two of the three Republicans. Proctor's letter does not bode well for that prospect. If he does not even acknowledge that the "path to victory" must have a heavy unaffiliated vote, it is not encouraging that the GOP, under his leadership, will win a simple majority on the Commission, much less all three seats. He does not even allude to how he proposes to get those votes.
Complicating the Republican's problem this year is the fact that many conservatives are disenchanted with the Establishment Republican leadership and are not working to either turn out the Republican base, much less get the unaffiliated vote.
It should be noted that many (most?) of those unaffiliated voters are unaffiliated mainly because they don't associate themselves with either party. In fact, we suspect many have significant disdain for both parties. When surveyed, they typically say they "vote for the candidate rather than the party."
But you will note that Proctor's appeal is not to the unaffiliated by showing the Republican candidates are the unaffiliated voters' best choices but rather he appeals to what turns off unaffiliated voters—blind party loyalty. His strategy is the exact opposite of what Republicans need in order to win in Beaufort County.
His distorted view of reality is glaringly obvious in his observation about the Clerk of Court's race. He proclaims that in a three-way race that Republican Jimbo Shiver can win if only all Republicans vote for him. That is a laughable proposition, given the numbers.
In the three-way Clerk's race there is an almost insurmountable hurdle for either the Republican or unaffiliated candidates. The Clerk's race will be decide by a plurality, not a majority. That means that without a run-off, all any one candidate has to get is one more vote than the other two get. If turnout is proportionate to the registered voters, the current incumbent (Paramore) has a 45% advantage to begin with. Assume he stumbles and gets only 35% of the vote and the remainder is split between the Republican and the unaffiliated. The odds of his not winning are virtually zero with the non-Democrat vote split.
Yet Proctor tries to blame those who are supporting the unaffiliated candidate for setting up a Democrat win. In reality it is a mathematical fact that the Democrat will likely win because the non-Democrat vote will be split. Again, if every Republican who votes actually votes for the Republican, he will come in third without unaffiliated and Democrat votes. Proctor makes no appeal for those unaffiliated votes. We would suggest that his myopic view of the voting patterns in Beaufort County is what will result in a Democrat being Clerk of Court for the next four years.
On the other hand, 2014 presents the Republicans with the best chance they have ever had of gaining the Clerk's office and beginning the dismantlement of the stranglehold the Democrats have over the corrupt Courthouse Rat Pack . Proctor's approach will waste that chance.
Effective GOP leadership should be working to keep a Democrat from being returned to office rather than trying to convince voters to vote for a candidate simply because he is a Republican. Again, Republicans, with one third of the voters, simply cannot defeat a Democrat on their own. Proctor appeals to the base. That is precisely the opposite message to send to the voters who will decide this race.
Finally, the most perverse reasoning in the Chairman's letter is his justification for why Republicans should vote for Thom Tillis. He argues that if Tillis is not elected then the Democrats will control the Senate. But that is not true. The Republicans have enough races in other states to achieve a majority in the Senate without Tillis.
But beyond that, what Proctor fails to even acknowledge that he realizes it, is the fact that even if the Republicans win all of the "battleground" seats, including North Carolina, not much will change. Republicans may win a majority but the liberal Republicans such as John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Olympia Snow etc. etc. will insure that the Senate will be no more effective than the House has been under Republican control. Click here to read more about that point. (Note here that the Washington Post gives Hagan a 91% chance of winning.)
It's not a Republican Senate we need, it is a conservative Senate that is essential to save this country.
Really, what do you think the difference will be between a Senate run by Mitch McConnell and that run by Harry Reid? While the Republicans may achieve a majority, there are still too many Republicans who vote with the Democrats to make any real substantive difference in the legislative record of Congress. We would argue that most unaffiliated voters are not going to vote for Tillis to get rid of Reid. And Tillis has yet to strike a nerve with the disenchanted unaffiliated voters, much less the conservative, grassroots Republicans. That's why the polls show a tight race between Hagan and Tillis. When the voting is over, it is the voters who stayed home or did not vote in the Senate race that will determine the outcome. Appealing to the GOP base will not get those voters out to vote.
We would suggest that Proctor and the Establishment GOP need to go back to the drawing board. They need to articulate a vision that will garner conservative Republican votes but even more importantly, will pull unaffiliated voters into the fold. Proctor's letter does not even attempt to do that. Tillis has made no move to do that. The Establishment Republicans in Raleigh have not only not drawn in the disenchanted, they have alienated them even more than they were already alienated.
That is why you are not seeing the "wave" that was predicted in 2014. Far too many people don't see a dime's worth of difference between Republicans and Democrats. It's not looking good that Republicans will elect—without a paradigm shift-- two, much less three county commissioners or the Clerk of Court. And the smart money is going against Tillis.
Finally, and most amazingly, Proctor completely ignores the most important race on the ballot in Beaufort County, the Sheriff's race, and in so doing glosses over the one that could most likely be won with the right message. He does not even mention the Sheriff's race. That winning message will definitely not be silence. But even if he had acknowledged the importance of the Sheriff's race his myopic strategy of trying to turn out the Republican base is exactly not what Ernie Coleman needs. Coleman knows that. He told the GOP Executive Committee that "I don't need your endorsement." And he was spot on.
Coleman's challenge is exacerbated because of the race factor. Al Whitney will get 90% plus of the black vote. If blacks turn out heavier than whites (a likely prospect) then not only will Whitney win but this turnout will insure two Democrat county commissioners and a Clerk as well as Hagan winning the county. The irony is that Whitney may well even get a substantial vote in the white precincts because of the "disenchantment of Republicans" factor and the unaffiliated who did not vote for Coleman in the primaries. Coleman's task is the same as other Republicans. He must get the GOP base. That is essential, but not sufficient. He can't win with just that. He must also get the unaffiliated vote and even some of the Democrat vote. Wisely, that is exactly how he is running his campaign. He has not been heard to say "Vote for me because I am a Republican."
Consider all of this as a composite...like a jigsaw puzzle. What it means is that the best hope Republicans have is to get a coalition of the GOP base and the unaffiliated and entice a backlash among conservative Democrats, both black and white. This letter from the GOP Chairman not only shows no strategy to get the "non-Democrat" vote, it exposes an approach (Vote for Republicans because they are Republicans) that is likely to cost more unaffiliated votes than it gains, and thus insure Democrat victories.
We would suggest that the more effective strategy would be to convey the message to the voters of Beaufort County that: "It's time to give the Republicans a chance to show what conservative governance can do for the county." Republican candidates should be running on explaining a vision that offers an alternative to the bankrupt and corrupt Democrat/RINO reign in Beaufort County. And ironically, that would be Tillis's best hope of carrying Beaufort County also. But that vision is not "Republican" but rather, real, effective conservatism. To hell with partisan politics (because hell is where it is taking us).
Go Back
"Vote for Republicans because they are Republicans..." is the exact opposite message to send if Republicans want to win
Proctor Kidwell, Chairman of the Beaufort County Republican Party recently sent a Letter To The Editor of the Observer, Beaufort County Now, the County Compass and the WDN. In it he proclaims the path to victory for Republicans is for all Republicans to support all Republican candidates. In advocating that strategy he ignores both reality and a fundamental problem Republicans in Beaufort County have for years ignored. The simple fact is that if Republicans turn out at about the same rate as Democrats and Unaffiliated voters and every Republican votes for every Republican on the ballot they cannot elect but one county commissioner (in the Limited Voting System). They cannot elect anyone countywide, or carry the county for any statewide Republican. Republicans cannot elect anyone, regardless of qualifications, to any county-wide office without a substantial portion of the unaffiliated vote and usually, some Democrats. Proctor simply ignores this fact in this proclamation that the way for Republicans to win is for Republicans to vote for Republicans.
And to him, apparently, anyone registered as a Republican is a Republican, regardless of their record, positions or principles.
Here are the numbers Proctor ignores. In round numbers, there are 35,000 registered voters in Beaufort County. Approximately 46% are Democrats, 31% are Republicans and 22% are unaffiliated. Those number have been and are continuing to shift, with the unaffiliated growing faster than either Democrats or Republicans. You don't have to be a math whiz to see that 31% of the voters cannot elect anyone in a county wide race by simply getting all the Republican vote.
Proctor's math is even more bogus when he says: "...we have three commissioner candidates who may well sweep the elections and give us a five to two majority." Remember that there are three seats, with each voter having one vote and five candidates running (3 Republicans and 2 Democrats). In the last "mid-term" election in 2010 there were 15,535 votes cast in the 3-seat commissioner race. The top vote getter got 3934 (Deatherage-R) and the second seat was won with 3501 (Klemm-R). The third seat was won by a Democrat with 3350 votes (Booth-D). Unaffiliated Bertie Arnhols polled 1147. So clearly it is not very likely a Democrat is not going to be elected when there were 6953 Democrat votes cast out of 15,535. This time there are only two Democrats running, whereas when Ed Booth won with 3350 votes there were three Democrats splitting the vote. If Robert Cayton and Booth get the Democrat vote, and as many vote this time as voted last time, there is a statistical probability both will win a seat, simply because the three Republicans will split the roughly 7500 votes that remain.
The most favorable thing the Republicans have going for them is that there is not an unaffiliated candidate like Arnhols to pull away 1200 votes.
The way Proctor should be looking at it is this way: How do we get the unaffiliated vote?
To look at it another way, the Democrats elected only one seat in 2010 because they had three candidates running. This time they have only two. On the other hand, in 2010 there were only two Republicans running, after third place winner Cathy Baldwin pulled out to avoid splitting the Republican vote. That probably was a major reason Al Klemm won.
But regardless of how you parse the numbers, there will not be two Republicans elected this time unless most of the unaffiliated vote goes to two of the three Republicans. Proctor's letter does not bode well for that prospect. If he does not even acknowledge that the "path to victory" must have a heavy unaffiliated vote, it is not encouraging that the GOP, under his leadership, will win a simple majority on the Commission, much less all three seats. He does not even allude to how he proposes to get those votes.
Complicating the Republican's problem this year is the fact that many conservatives are disenchanted with the Establishment Republican leadership and are not working to either turn out the Republican base, much less get the unaffiliated vote.
It should be noted that many (most?) of those unaffiliated voters are unaffiliated mainly because they don't associate themselves with either party. In fact, we suspect many have significant disdain for both parties. When surveyed, they typically say they "vote for the candidate rather than the party."
But you will note that Proctor's appeal is not to the unaffiliated by showing the Republican candidates are the unaffiliated voters' best choices but rather he appeals to what turns off unaffiliated voters—blind party loyalty. His strategy is the exact opposite of what Republicans need in order to win in Beaufort County.
His distorted view of reality is glaringly obvious in his observation about the Clerk of Court's race. He proclaims that in a three-way race that Republican Jimbo Shiver can win if only all Republicans vote for him. That is a laughable proposition, given the numbers.
In the three-way Clerk's race there is an almost insurmountable hurdle for either the Republican or unaffiliated candidates. The Clerk's race will be decide by a plurality, not a majority. That means that without a run-off, all any one candidate has to get is one more vote than the other two get. If turnout is proportionate to the registered voters, the current incumbent (Paramore) has a 45% advantage to begin with. Assume he stumbles and gets only 35% of the vote and the remainder is split between the Republican and the unaffiliated. The odds of his not winning are virtually zero with the non-Democrat vote split.
Yet Proctor tries to blame those who are supporting the unaffiliated candidate for setting up a Democrat win. In reality it is a mathematical fact that the Democrat will likely win because the non-Democrat vote will be split. Again, if every Republican who votes actually votes for the Republican, he will come in third without unaffiliated and Democrat votes. Proctor makes no appeal for those unaffiliated votes. We would suggest that his myopic view of the voting patterns in Beaufort County is what will result in a Democrat being Clerk of Court for the next four years.
On the other hand, 2014 presents the Republicans with the best chance they have ever had of gaining the Clerk's office and beginning the dismantlement of the stranglehold the Democrats have over the corrupt Courthouse Rat Pack . Proctor's approach will waste that chance.
Effective GOP leadership should be working to keep a Democrat from being returned to office rather than trying to convince voters to vote for a candidate simply because he is a Republican. Again, Republicans, with one third of the voters, simply cannot defeat a Democrat on their own. Proctor appeals to the base. That is precisely the opposite message to send to the voters who will decide this race.
Finally, the most perverse reasoning in the Chairman's letter is his justification for why Republicans should vote for Thom Tillis. He argues that if Tillis is not elected then the Democrats will control the Senate. But that is not true. The Republicans have enough races in other states to achieve a majority in the Senate without Tillis.
But beyond that, what Proctor fails to even acknowledge that he realizes it, is the fact that even if the Republicans win all of the "battleground" seats, including North Carolina, not much will change. Republicans may win a majority but the liberal Republicans such as John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Olympia Snow etc. etc. will insure that the Senate will be no more effective than the House has been under Republican control. Click here to read more about that point. (Note here that the Washington Post gives Hagan a 91% chance of winning.)
It's not a Republican Senate we need, it is a conservative Senate that is essential to save this country.
Really, what do you think the difference will be between a Senate run by Mitch McConnell and that run by Harry Reid? While the Republicans may achieve a majority, there are still too many Republicans who vote with the Democrats to make any real substantive difference in the legislative record of Congress. We would argue that most unaffiliated voters are not going to vote for Tillis to get rid of Reid. And Tillis has yet to strike a nerve with the disenchanted unaffiliated voters, much less the conservative, grassroots Republicans. That's why the polls show a tight race between Hagan and Tillis. When the voting is over, it is the voters who stayed home or did not vote in the Senate race that will determine the outcome. Appealing to the GOP base will not get those voters out to vote.
We would suggest that Proctor and the Establishment GOP need to go back to the drawing board. They need to articulate a vision that will garner conservative Republican votes but even more importantly, will pull unaffiliated voters into the fold. Proctor's letter does not even attempt to do that. Tillis has made no move to do that. The Establishment Republicans in Raleigh have not only not drawn in the disenchanted, they have alienated them even more than they were already alienated.
That is why you are not seeing the "wave" that was predicted in 2014. Far too many people don't see a dime's worth of difference between Republicans and Democrats. It's not looking good that Republicans will elect—without a paradigm shift-- two, much less three county commissioners or the Clerk of Court. And the smart money is going against Tillis.
Finally, and most amazingly, Proctor completely ignores the most important race on the ballot in Beaufort County, the Sheriff's race, and in so doing glosses over the one that could most likely be won with the right message. He does not even mention the Sheriff's race. That winning message will definitely not be silence. But even if he had acknowledged the importance of the Sheriff's race his myopic strategy of trying to turn out the Republican base is exactly not what Ernie Coleman needs. Coleman knows that. He told the GOP Executive Committee that "I don't need your endorsement." And he was spot on.
Coleman's challenge is exacerbated because of the race factor. Al Whitney will get 90% plus of the black vote. If blacks turn out heavier than whites (a likely prospect) then not only will Whitney win but this turnout will insure two Democrat county commissioners and a Clerk as well as Hagan winning the county. The irony is that Whitney may well even get a substantial vote in the white precincts because of the "disenchantment of Republicans" factor and the unaffiliated who did not vote for Coleman in the primaries. Coleman's task is the same as other Republicans. He must get the GOP base. That is essential, but not sufficient. He can't win with just that. He must also get the unaffiliated vote and even some of the Democrat vote. Wisely, that is exactly how he is running his campaign. He has not been heard to say "Vote for me because I am a Republican."
Consider all of this as a composite...like a jigsaw puzzle. What it means is that the best hope Republicans have is to get a coalition of the GOP base and the unaffiliated and entice a backlash among conservative Democrats, both black and white. This letter from the GOP Chairman not only shows no strategy to get the "non-Democrat" vote, it exposes an approach (Vote for Republicans because they are Republicans) that is likely to cost more unaffiliated votes than it gains, and thus insure Democrat victories.
We would suggest that the more effective strategy would be to convey the message to the voters of Beaufort County that: "It's time to give the Republicans a chance to show what conservative governance can do for the county." Republican candidates should be running on explaining a vision that offers an alternative to the bankrupt and corrupt Democrat/RINO reign in Beaufort County. And ironically, that would be Tillis's best hope of carrying Beaufort County also. But that vision is not "Republican" but rather, real, effective conservatism. To hell with partisan politics (because hell is where it is taking us).
Comments
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Republicans will do well overall, some will not, and need not to do well.
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Not a very good and hopeful look at Republican victory as I read this.
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I learned long ago to not depend on Beaufort County Republicans, the North Carolina Republican Party, and the Beaufort County Republican Party to get elected. There are some well meaning folks, good Republicans, in Beaufort County, but far too many RINOs, and, eventually, even tired old Bulls like myself just become too weary of fighting against the current of a bad stream.
The problem with RINOs: they have no principles, no loyalty to common principles, and most, excuse me here, all RINOs can not think their way out of a wet paper bag. One could argue their lack of raw intelligence could be the sole culprit; however, complete abdication of a commonality of principal is my choice for their sole destruction of the Republican brand. Regardless, RINOs are destroying the Republican brand, and the Conservative brand - since they scurry under that banner as well. Personally, I'm glad to be done with the Republican Party. Whatever reputation that I have managed to preserve for what I have accomplished for real Conservatives, for who I have become as a creative influence, I will lend to better causes for the enhancement of myself, my family, and other like minded patriots, who despise leadership that only pretends to know the better path forward, be they Democrats or Republicans. I know who you are. My advice for salvaging and saving the Republican Party: stamp out the RINOs, and lose that whole "Big Tent" stupidity. Make the party one that others want to join because it stands for principles, and the good sense of principled leaders. Until then, it will be a tattered brand that means nothing except to those who need nothing to belong to. I will remain a Republican, but I will keep to the shadows, watching, waiting until there is enough real grit to finally attach to, and then I will aid that renaissance. For all that believe that I am just a great big bowl of negative here, I would like to offer my continued thanks to Charles Hickman for his short tenure as chairman. His chairmanship is the template to rally around. The RINOs scurried hither and thither when Charles took a principled stand. |
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Well, we Republicans are not going into this election ideally positioned. There are serious problems at the national, state and local levels within our party. More importantly, there are grave problems within our country.
In the county party much, but not all, of our problems stem from the fact that we have had a lot of turnover in our leadership in a very short period of time. A determined effort at this late date could help, but mistakes at this point could be disastrous. It's time for reasonable people to think of the big picture, bear down and come out of this in the best way possible, not the worst way possible.
There are important issues at stake in our local elections. For example, this election will decide whether we go into more county debt for a brand new jail/sheriff department public safety complex or if we upgrade existing structures in a manner we can afford. This election will decide how we approach the issue of medical hospital service for the northeastern part of Beaufort County (and also several other counties). This election will decide if any inroads can be made in courthouse politics as usual in this county.
In state elections in our neck of the woods it is very important that we re-elect Michael Speciale in House District Three. This man has done well for us and it would be quite a setback for our part of the state if we do not send him back. We need to elect Mattie Lawson in House District Six. Having both Speciale and Lawson representing us in Raliegh would be good news for Eastern Carolina. How long have we worked to break up the cabal in State Senate District One? Bill Cook has done a good job in the Senate. We do not need to go back to the good ole boy system that preceded Cook in the Senate.
Nationally, our part of the state must send Walter Jones back as the representative from Congressional District Three. It is a sad indictment on the sorry situation in our country that Congressman Jones is one of the few defenders of the U.S. Constitution left in Washington, D.C. In Congressional District One we must help Arthur Rich unseat one of the worst violators of the Constitution in the House of Representatives. The U.S. Senate race between Tillis and Hagan may or may not decide who will be the next Senate Leader. More importantly, the culture of unlawfulness in Washington, D.C. must be ended. Our country cannot survive where one branch of government abdicates its duties and lets another branch unlawfully fill the void. Members of all parties should address this treason. We in the Republican Party must not shirk our duty. If we are silent on this our party is and should be dead.
And yes Stan, we need to take principled stands at all levels.