Publisher's note: This informational nugget was sent to me by Ben Shapiro, who represents the Daily Wire, and since this is one of the most topical news events, it should be published on BCN.
The author of this post is James Barrett.
The odds are now overwhelmingly in Biden's favor.
Former Vice President and resurgent Democratic presidential frontrunner Joe Biden had a big day Tuesday, winning 9 of the 15 primary contests and hauling in hundreds of delegates, giving him a grand total of 467 and counting. That's the biggest total in the rapidly dwindling Democratic field and gives Biden a more than 70-delegate lead over democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who's earned 392 thus far (though more California delegates are coming). Adding to the "Joementum" is the decision by three relatively moderate candidates to drop out of the race and throw their support to Biden, the latest being Mike Bloomberg, who dropped out Wednesday morning after a sub-par Super Tuesday.
According to oddsmakers, all of these positive developments have made Biden the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination, while former frontrunner Sanders' chances have utterly collapsed.
Real Clear Politics'
average of the oddsmakers' numbers now gives Biden a 56-point advantage over Sanders. Just two weeks ago, Sanders enjoyed a 47-point advantage over Biden. By average, Biden is given a 78% chance of winning the nomination, while Sanders' chances have plummeted from 57% before Biden's dominant showing in South Carolina, to just 22% post-Super Tuesday.
The oddsmakers are remarkably similar in their predictions. Here's the breakdown as of March 4:
- Unibet: Biden 78, Sanders 21
- Smarkets Biden 77, Sanders 19
- BetVictor: Biden 77, Sanders 25
- Bovada: Biden 79, Sanders 24
- Betfair: Biden 78, Sanders 22
- SpreadEx: Biden 80, Sanders 21
The Democrat given the third-best chance of winning, according to all six oddsmakers, is not even a candidate: Hillary Clinton, who is given a 4% chance of taking the nomination. Warren is given just a 1.4% chance of winning, by average.
While Biden's odds have dramatically improved to ultimately secure the nomination, the analysts over at FiveThirtyEight
still think the most likely scenario is that Biden and Bernie will be battling for the nomination via a brokered convention because neither will amass enough delegates to win a majority by the Democratic National Convention. That will give the "establishment" Democratic officials who serve as superdelegates to decide the winner.
FiveThirtyEight puts the chances of a brokered convention at 3 in 5, Biden's chances of winning a majority at 3 in 10, and Sanders' chances at just 1 in 12. And those heavily Biden-favoring odds were given before relative moderate Bloomberg dropped out of the race, a development that will only boost Biden more.
After his campaign announced Tuesday night that they were "reassessing" his candidacy following a deeply disappointing Super Tuesday performance - which saw Bloomberg win only one territory, American Samoa (5 delegates), and underperform in basically every state where he was expected to be at least somewhat competitive - Bloomberg called it quits Wednesday morning.
"I've always believed that defeating Donald Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it. After yesterday's vote, it is clear that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden,"
the former New York City mayor said
in a statement Wednesday.