Analysts: No Knockout Punches In GOP Senate Debates | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's note: The author of this post is Dan Way, who is an associate editor for the Carolina Journal, John Hood Publisher.

Political science profs say question is whether Tillis hits 40 percent

    RALEIGH     Since no candidates landed knockout punches or committed breathtaking gaffes in the Republican primary debates for U.S. Senate, election analysts say the only unanswered question is whether front-runner Thom Tillis, the state House Speaker from Mecklenburg County, is forced into a runoff.

    If the primary winner fails to get 40 percent, a July 15 runoff would be held with the second-place finisher. The runoff victor is almost certain to challenge Democrat incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, the presumptive winner over two long-shot primary opponents.

    Unlike recent Senate primaries in other states involving one candidate perceived to be favored by the Republican establishment and another with strong Tea Party support, North Carolina's Republican field is more murky, says Chris Cooper, who heads the political science and public affairs department at Western Carolina University.

    In this race, Cary physician Greg Brannon, Wilkesboro nurse Heather Grant, and Charlotte minister Mark Harris have some Tea Party support, and could divide the grass-roots vote, while the establishment Republicans "are fairly coalesced around [Tillis]," Cooper said. "I don't think this is set up for a likely Tea Party victory."

    "I think it's pretty clear that Tillis is going to get a plurality on Tuesday. The biggest question is will he get 40 percent or more," said Andy Taylor, professor of political science in the School of Public and International Affairs at N.C. State University.

    Cooper and David McLennan, chairman of the political science department at William Peace University, agree with Taylor.

    Tillis, Brannon, Grant, and Harris squared off in three televised debates. Other Republicans in the primary field are Ted Alexander, Jim Snyder, Edward Kryn, and Alex Bradshaw.

    "I think it's fair to say as we moved through the debates there was a greater effort by the other three to try to differentiate themselves from Tillis, try to land some gloves on him," not expecting to win the primary but to do well enough to finish second and force a runoff, Taylor said. "We saw them being a little bit more aggressive."

    Despite Tillis being viewed as the establishment Republican, Brannon as a Tea Party candidate focused on conservative economic issues, and Harris as a traditional cultural and social conservative, "you wouldn't really have been able to detect" much difference in the responses they gave on most policy issues, Taylor said.

    "Most were interested in juxtaposing their position with Sen. Hagan rather than their competitors," Taylor said.

    With little difference in substance, Taylor said, there were some stylistic shortcomings "on the margins."

    "Even though Tillis is speaker of the North Carolina House with significant political experience [and] his hands on the reins of power in the state, he's never really had this kind of focus on him, this scrutiny on him," Taylor said. "That goes even more so for the other three participants in the debates. I think that showed a little bit."

    Because there is little to distinguish the candidates' responses to the issues, "I think Republicans are going to make a calculation as to who they believe is best positioned to win the general election," Taylor said.

    "You see that a lot now not just in the debates but in the ads, and in the direct mail, and other communications with voters that particularly Tillis now is pivoting to this argument that he is the Democrats' worst nightmare, he's the one who's best positioned to win the nomination," Taylor said. "That's the way he's going to differentiate himself."

    "We often look at debates and say, 'Did someone make a huge gaffe,' and I didn't think there were any made," McLennan said.

    "There weren't a whole lot of memorable lines either," he said. "So if you look at two ends of the spectrum, nobody is out, and nobody is a runaway winner."

    Grant probably distinguished herself the least, McLennan said.

    "She chose to take a very positive approach, which is admirable, but given that she's running fourth in the polls, that's probably not great strategy if you don't bring down the three people in front of you," McLennan said.

    He said the final debate, sponsored by UNC Public Television, was the most interesting of the three because there was more direct exchange between Harris and Brannon, and to a lesser degree Tillis, with the field "going after Tillis a lot."

    Republicans backing Tillis hope to avoid a runoff, he said.

    "You've got six more weeks of campaigning, you've got to raise more money. I think a one-on-one kind of situation is much more potentially damaging to the front runner," McLennan said. Tillis's opponent would be "blasting away as Hagan is, and all of her independent expenditure groups from the left."

    Because runoff elections tend to get very low turnout, the winner is often the person who can motivate voters to go to the polls.

    "If it's a Brannon, for example, against Tillis, the last couple of election cycles the people who call themselves Tea Partiers tend to be pretty motivated," McLennan said. "Tillis is sort of getting the more mainstream Republican support, and he would have to work a little harder to get them out, and that's conventional wisdom."

    "I think the money advantage is always going to be on is Tillis' side," McLennan said, "and so if it does come down to a primary runoff he can just keep running his ads and keep putting up more signs than whoever his opponent is, so I think he's going to have a natural advantage there that's going to help turnout."

    Cooper said all four candidates clarified their positions "a little bit" in the debates: Brannon as a strict constitutionalist, Tillis defending his position as "still a conservative," and Grant carving out a position "probably to the right of the field."

    "I thought if anybody sort of balked at all it was Harris," Cooper said. Still, he may have increased his name recognition and, combined with fundraising that's "not great, but it's better than I thought it would be ... he moved into a clear third place."

    Based on debate performance, fundraising totals, and a few polls, Tillis is likely to emerge atop the field in the primary, Cooper said.

    Funding, name recognition advantage, the Republican Party network advantage, and data showing primary winners win runoffs about 70 percent of the time would make him the favorite to win a second primary, Cooper said.

    Republicans would prefer a united fight against Hagan, "and the more you have intraparty competition the worse it is for the party," Cooper said.

    With Monday's endorsement from Gov. Pat McCrory, "Tillis continues to set himself as the establishment Republican candidate, and so if Tillis loses somehow I think that's going to be a real challenge to the establishment Republican Party in North Carolina, and obviously a boon to the Tea Party," Cooper said.

    "There's a lot of money in our election, there's a lot of national attention on this race, but yet it does not appear thus far to have inspired much more turnout than usual," Cooper said.

    As of 7 a.m. April 30, the State Board of Elections reported 124,786 early voting and absentee ballots had been cast. There were 60,350 Democrat votes (2.2 percent), 40,688 Republican votes (2.0 percent), and 23,630 unaffiliated votes (1.4 percent).

    According to research by Wesleyan University and the Center for Responsive Politics, funded by the Knight Foundation, North Carolina tops the list of states for the most television ads for U.S. Senate races.

    "Almost 15,000 ads, costing $6.3 million, have aired in the Senate race in the Tar Heel State," the Wesleyan Media Project said in its report.

    "In many of the races, the large volume of advertising is driven by group sponsors. In North Carolina, groups sponsored 90 percent of the ads." Massachusetts was second, running 12,357 ads, and was the only state surpassing North Carolina in spending, at $8.4 million.