A Look Ahead to the Post COVID-19 Recovery | Eastern North Carolina Now

Publisher's note: The author of this post is Mitch Kokai for the John Locke Foundation.

    Andrew Stuttaford explains at National Review Online why we should not expect a quick recovery from the economic hit triggered by the coronavirus.

  • The economic numbers are beginning to come in, and, predictably enough, just about wherever you check, they are appalling. In Pennsylvania alone last week there were more than 350,000 first-time claims for unemployment assistance. That compares with (seasonally adjusted) initial national claims over the last year averaging in the low 200,000s, and the news is only going to get worse in Pennsylvania and, probably, every other state. ...
  • ... Goldman's economists are, however, anticipating that GDP will recover by (an again annualized) 12 per cent in the third quarter. But the damage inflicted on the economy is not going to be easily undone: Unemployment was expected to peak at 9 percent. Bad though that unemployment figure may be, my guess (and currently that is all that any forecast can be) is that it, along with hopes of a more or less V-shaped recovery, will turn out to be too optimistic. Even if the parts of the economy that have been braked or switched off were to start up again tomorrow, it would take a while for them to return to any approximation of business as usual.
  • Take a look at consumer spending, some 70 percent of GDP. Even if all the furloughed and the fired could resume what they were doing (or, in the case of workers from home, go back to the office), many of them will have drained their savings or gone deeper into debt. Meanwhile a good portion of those who have kept their jobs will have learned that they are more vulnerable than they might previously have thought.

Go Back


Leave a Guest Comment

Your Name or Alias
Your Email Address ( your email address will not be published)
Enter Your Comment ( no code or urls allowed, text only please )




Avoid Unnecessary Education Losses, Give Parents Choice John Locke Foundation Guest Editorial, Editorials, Op-Ed & Politics Large Sum Secured for Hospitals in Coronavirus Relief Package


HbAD0

Latest Op-Ed & Politics

Atheist Soros, although born Jewish, was Nazi collaborator in Hungary in WWII
anti-immigration conservative nationalist beats Social Democrat incumbent 2 to 1
Biden wants to push this in public schools and Gov. deSantis says NO
this at the time that pro-Hamas radicals are rioting around the country
populist / nationalist anti-immigration AfD most popular party among young voters, CDU second

HbAD1

Barr had previously said he would jump off a bridge before supporting Trump
illegal alien "asylum seeker" migrants are a crime wave on both sides of the Atlantic
Decision is a win for election integrity. NC should do the same.

HbAD2

Biden regime intends to force public school compliance as well as colleges
prosecutors appeal acquittal of member of parliament in lower court for posting Bible verse
Biden abuses power to turn statute on its head; womens groups to sue
The Missouri Senate approved a constitutional amendment to ban non-U.S. citizens from voting and also ban ranked-choice voting.
Democrats prosecuting political opponets just like foreign dictrators do
populist / nationalist / sovereigntist right are kingmakers for new government
18 year old boy who thinks he is girl planned to shoot up elementary school in Maryland

HbAD3

 
Back to Top