White House Coronavirus Model Gets Updated Second Time in Four Days, Downgrading Deaths, Hospitalizations Again | Eastern North Carolina Now

Publisher's note: This informational nugget was sent to me by Ben Shapiro, who represents the Daily Wire, and since this is one of the most topical news events, it should be published on BCN.

The author of this post is Amanda Prestigiacomo.


    For the second time in four days, a coronavirus projection model heavily relied upon by the White House task force has been updated, again dropping the number of projected deaths and hospitalizations.

    The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington dropped its estimated death projection on Sunday for the first wave of the pandemic to 81,766 deaths, down from 93,531.

    By Wednesday, the projection dropped the estimated total deaths to 60,415, revised down from 81,766 deaths, which was revised from down 93,531, a revised number itself.

    Moreover, the projected total hospital bed shortage decreased from 34,654 to 15,852 (a revised number from April 5), and the so-called "peak" of hospital usage was pushed up from April 15 to April 11. The peak daily death toll was also moved up to April 12, from the revised April 16 date.

    The changing estimates have always been based off the implementation of "full social distancing through May 2020″ and do not factor in another wave of the virus post-August 1.

    At an impromptu press briefing on Sunday, President Donald Trump told the nation that we are using fewer beds than the relied upon models have projected, specifically highlighting hard-hit New York.

    "It's turning out that we need less hospital beds," Trump said. "We may have models, but we've been sort of saying that. In New York, we were saying we think you're gonna need less."

    Based on the IHME model, Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci, leaders in the White House coronavirus response task force, earlier this month estimated between 100,000-240,000 deaths related to COVID-19, The Washington Post reported.

    As previously noted by The Daily Wire, "Dr. Birx has specifically highlighted a model from Imperial College London as a guide for nationwide policy on fighting the novel coronavirus. The model initially estimated up to a stunning 2.2 million COVID-19 associated deaths in the United States with no mitigation. Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist behind the Imperial model, predicted a whopping 500,000 COVID-19 associated fatalities in the U.K. without mitigation, but now estimates far fewer than 20,000 deaths, citing the nation's lockdowns."

    According to the site hosting the IHME model, the projections are based off of data "from local and national governments, hospital networks like the University of Washington, the American Hospital Association, the World Health Organization, and a range of other sources. The model is updated regularly as new data are available, in order to provide the most up-to-date planning tool possible."

    With regard to the modeling cutting off at August, the site notes that this does not mean the end of the pandemic, but the end of the projected "first wave":

  • "Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave."

Go Back


Leave a Guest Comment

Your Name or Alias
Your Email Address ( your email address will not be published)
Enter Your Comment ( no code or urls allowed, text only please )




Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly Offers to Resign Guest Editorial, Editorials, Op-Ed & Politics Trump Signs Executive Order to Support Moon Mining, Tapping Asteroid Resources


HbAD0

Latest Op-Ed & Politics

President Joe Biden took direct aim at Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas during a recent interview, referring to him simply as “the guy who likes to spend a lot of time on yachts.”
The best way the county and city can help hold down inflation is to resist all tax increases
Pope Francis lambasted leftist gender ideology during an address this week, warning that it presented an extreme danger to mankind.
amnesty would just encourage more illegal aliens to storm our borders
The Christmas candy was barely off the shelves when the Valentine’s candy appeared. Red and pink hearts with caramel and nut-filled chocolate goodness caught our eye. We are reminded of how we love love. Young love, especially.
far left sugar daddy has also funded anti-Israel groups and politicians in US
Be careful what you wish for, you may get it
America needs to wake up and get its priorities right

HbAD1

Former President Donald Trump suggested this week that if he becomes president again, he might allow Prince Harry to be deported.
It's a New Year, which means it's time to make resolutions — even for prominent evangelical leaders. The Babylon Bee asked the following well-known figures in the faith what they hope to accomplish in 2024:
Vice President Kamala Harris will visit a Minnesota Planned Parenthood clinic, reportedly the first time a president or vice president has visited an abortion facility.
An eight-mile stretch of the Blue Ridge Parkway near Asheville has been temporarily closed due to a string of “human and bear interactions,” the National Parks Service announced.
University of Wisconsin tried to punish conservatives for the fact that liberals regularly commit crimes to silence opposition
most voters think EU officials not doing a good job on illegal immigration
Come from behind by GOP candidate is a blueprint to 2024
Biden spending and energy policies to blame

HbAD2

 
Back to Top