Fixing What’s Wrong With Inaccurate COVID-19 Models | Beaufort County Now | Jon McCloskey writes for the Federalist about COVID-19 models that have been far from accurate. | john locke foundation, coronavirus, covid-19, models, inaccuracy, april 28, 2020, cvd19

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Fixing What’s Wrong With Inaccurate COVID-19 Models

Publisher's note: The author of this post is Mitch Kokai for the John Locke Foundation.

    Jon McCloskey writes for the Federalist about COVID-19 models that have been far from accurate.

  • There's been a lot of armchair analysis about various models being used to predict outcomes of COVID-19. For those of us who have built spatial and statistical models, all of this discussion brings to mind George Box's dictum, "All models are wrong, but some are useful"-or useless, as the case may be.
  • The problem with data-driven models, especially when data is lacking, can be easily explained. First of all, in terms of helping decision makers make quality decisions, statistical hypothesis testing and data analysis is just one tool in a large tool box.
  • It's based on what we generally call reductionist theory. In short, the tool examines parts of a system (usually by estimating an average or mean) and then makes inferences to the whole system. The tool is usually quite good at testing hypotheses under carefully controlled experimental conditions. ...
  • ... For the COVID-19 models, most of the data appears to come from large population centers like New York. This means the data sample is biased, which makes the entire analysis invalid for making any inferences outside of New York or, at best, areas without similar population density.
  • It would be antithetical to the scientific method if such data were used to make decisions in, for example, Wyoming or rural Virginia. While these models can sometimes provide decision makers useful information, the decisions that are being made during this crisis are far too important and complex to be based on such imprecise data. ...
  • ... Considering the limitations of this tool under controlled laboratory conditions, imagine what happens within more complex systems that encompass large areas, contain millions of people, and vary with time (such as seasonal or annual changes).

    Follow Carolina Journal Online's continuing coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic HERE.


HbAD0

Latest Op-Ed & Politics

A bill introduced in Kentucky this week would “add false reporting of claims of abuse towards another party or de facto custodian to the list of factors a court shall consider when making a custody determination.”
Let's be frank.... a lot of us have been leery of Facebook and its cabal of programmers, administrators, promoters, fact-checkers, and even its creator, and many have even walked away from the liberal platform.
Governor Roy Cooper signed the following bill into law: House Bill 4
An analysis from Reason magazine finds that there is a significant variation in per-capita state and local aid contained in the latest Covid relief bill being debated on Capitol Hill.
With new U.S. Census data not expected until September, the State Board of Elections is recommending moving all of this year’s municipal elections to 2022.
Though it is well-established and easy to see by the plain language of the statute and the settlement, Bell strongly declared at the end of her testimony that the collusive settlement “did not change the law."
We will offer this allotment of three with more to come; some old, most new, but all quite informative, and, moreover, necessary to understanding that in North Carolina, there is a wiser path to govern ourselves and our People.

HbAD1

Private bars will open at limited capacity under a new executive decree from the governor, although at the same time he called for more direct government aid to prop up failing businesses.
Vanita Gupta openly advocates to “end the use of police in schools as a solution to student discipline.”
Naomi Lim of the Washington Examiner highlights the slow progress of President Joe Biden in filling Cabinet-level positions.
Rachel Bovard writes for the Federalist about an inconvenient set of facts for a social media giant.
Judicial Watch announced today it asked Facebook’s Oversight Board to end the censorship of former President Trump and allow him back onto the platform.
Legislation introduced by Republican lawmakers would mandate recipients of unemployment benefits actively search for work, a requirement that hasn’t been in place since the pandemic began in March.
Facebook posted an update Wednesday on their current response to the Feb. 1 military coup in Myanmar that has continued to spark protests and violence in the country.

HbAD2

Implications for gun control. Prohibiting gun ownership will do nothing to stop these shootings
Key indicators used to guide decisions throughout pandemic show state’s trends are moving in the right direction
Frederick Hess and RJ Martin document for National Review Online a major problem on today’s college campuses.
Twice-failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has just announced that she is teaming up with award-winning author Louise Penny to write a political thriller called “State Of Terror.”
For all of you that believe that the Democratic Socialists did not collude with the Democratic Socialist Propagandist Media, Orwellian in Scope, to defraud over 74 million real voters by millions of fraudulent voters to defeat our best president since Ronald Reagan, pay close attention going forward
Stocks for movie theaters saw a surge this week after Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) said that certain chains in New York City can reopen if they follow Covid-19 safety restrictions.

HbAD3

 
Back to Top