Why would Gary Brinn oppose Limited Voting? Why would any Republican do so? | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.

    Let's just get to the point: Gary Brinn is ignorant . He is not stupid, but he is very ignorant when it comes to county business and specifically the county commissioner electoral system. For that reason he should not be elected County Commissioner. Here's why:

    His main issue has turned out to be the Limited Voting system used to elect county commissioners. He stated at the Candidate's Forum that he would move to file a lawsuit to overturn the system. So let's take a look at Limited Voting.

    The system was installed several years ago when a group of black voters sued the county contending that the at-large system deprived them of the opportunity to elect candidates of their choice. They offered as evidence that blacks had not been elected although they had run and enough blacks had voted to allow them to elect someone. Thus, the complaint was that the reason no black had been elected was that the voting system caused them to be unable to elect a candidate of their choice.

    So the first thing Mr. Brinn would have to prove is that the vestiges of that discriminatory system had been overcome. He offers not one piece of evidence to support that claim. Thus he has no chance of winning such a suit.

    Robert Belcher is also about as ignorant about this as Mr. Brinn, but much more devious. He contends the current system could be overturned and somehow in his distorted reasoning believes that he could win a suit by pointing out that a district system could elect the requisite number of blacks. His "proof" is the nine member school board with 3 black members. But what he does not tell you is how ineffective the school board system is. For Pete's sake there are four seats up for election this time and only two of them are even contested. And as Hood Richardson pointed out, the shape of some of the districts look like splattered ink dots. For example, Cypress Landing is split between two districts, one being represented by a resident of Aurora and the other half of the subdivision by someone who lives a couple of miles from Martin County. The Aurora district runs from the eastern end of the county nearly to the Pitt County line.

    But the major fallacy of Brinn's argument is that he does not even offer an explanation about why a district system, or "hybrid" as he calls it would be more effective. To do that he carries the burden, if he is to be intellectually honest, of showing that his hybrid would produce better representation. He can't show that. If by "hybrid" he means that two black districts would be carved out and the remainder elected at-large then he needs to explain how he would draw those two black districts. Long and short of it is that one district would be in Washington and he can't do it without splitting the second district with the river. That is in the eastern portion of the county. There are not enough people in the Belhaven and Aurora areas to create separate districts unless the board is expanded to over 11 seats so in that black district the people on one side of the river would not have a representative from their side.

    Then in the at-large part of the county the simple fact is that Washington would determine those , presumably 5, seats. Two would be Republican and three would end up being Democrats. The two black districts would elect Democrats so the board would most likely be 5-2 Democrat, and certainly 4-3. He's running as a Republican and claims to be a Republican so why would he want to see the board have only 2 Republicans. The logical conclusion that could be drawn from this is that Gary Brinn is not actually a Republican or he is so ill-informed that he does not know what is best for Republicans. He obviously has not actually tried to draw districts so he is simply shooting in the dark. Who would do such a thing?

    Thus, if one subscribes to the theory that most people think and act in what they perceive to be their best interest you have to wonder about Mr. Brinn. He could not likely get elected in a 5-seat at-large system.

    But his handlers (Ashley Woolard, Bill Tarpenning and Greg Dority) are just as ignorant as Mr. Brinn when it comes to how they could get a court to overturn the existing system. And while they all three claim to be "Republicans" they have yet to explain why they would trumpet a system that is against the best interest of the Republican Party.

    Now the fog lifts and we see what's going on. Woolard, Tarpenning and Dority are simply using Gary Brinn as a shill for another purpose that is neither getting him elected (under the current system) nor changing the current system as they have pushed him to advocate for. Something else is driving them, other than sheer ignorance.

    We'll tell you what we think it is. We think Woolard, Tarpenning and Dority are desperate to find some success in politics. None of them ever has. All of them are losers when it comes to politics. They hitched their political wagon to the wrong horse when they supported Arthur Williams who was resoundingly rejected by .... Well, you name it: the Democrats (when they chose Stan White) and by the Republicans when they rejected Arthur in the primary. They need a win and they are desperate to find one so they can posit themselves as viable kingmakers. Brinn is but a pawn in this ego satiation by the Three Mucksters.

    There are only two ways that realistically we could ever overturn the existing court order on Limited Voting. One is to prove that the vestiges of the racially discriminatory system have, as a matter of fact, been eliminated. Anyone with any common sense about Beaufort County knows that is not true. And the number crunchers will testify that the election results prove blacks vote for blacks and whites predominately vote for whites and that kills their case of getting Beaufort County out from under the Voting Rights Act. So the only other alternative they have is to get the Voting Rights Act repealed. Lots of luck on that one guys. The vestiges of racially discriminatory voting are still alive and well.

    So that brings us to the fundamental issue that the Three Mucksters should be dealing with, if indeed they were serious about the commissioners' electoral system. And that is: What is effective representation? They should define the standard they seek to achieve. Then they should tell us why a "hybrid" system will achieve that standard better than Limited Voting. And we'll bet this: They can't do it.

    Wayne Sawyer, while not intending to, posed one standard: Geography. He argued that "the eastern parts of the county are not represented..." and said a district system would take care of that. Trouble is, it will not. His proffered idea is to use the Tideland Electric districts. But Tideland does not have to comply with the "one-person, one-vote" standard and is not subject to the Voting Rights Act.

    Just look at the school board. They had to go to nine seats to get enough black districts to satisfy the Justice Department. But how "representative" is the school board? Aurora has only one of nine votes. What does that get you? But the main fallacy of the "districts achieve better representation" can be seen in this challenge: Ask 10 people in different parts of Beaufort County to name their school board member. Then ask the same 10 people to name 5 (a majority) of the board members. You know what you'll find. But if you're not convinced, ask the same 10 people to tell you how their representative voted on the last three major issues the board decided. How is a representation system to work when most of the people don't even know who their representative is, much less how they are being represented? The Three Mucksters have a moral duty to explain this.

    Jerry Langley hit the nail on the head in the forum when he said, straight out, that he supported the system because it means that any person, no matter where they live (geography) has seven representatives, rather than one. Think about that. It makes a lot of sense. And it would be very interesting to hear the Three Mucksters respond.

    Mr. Langley makes a good point when he says: Under the current system you have seven representatives. You can call any one or all of them and they will listen because they know you can vote for or against them. In a district system only one of them would feel accountable to you. How effectively represented are you if that one person does not agree with you?

    So here's what it boils down to. The Limited Voting system is far better than a district system. A "hybrid" system would have to overcome both the disadvantages of the at-large system and the district system. That's not likely to happen no matter how Mr. Brinn draws it. Ten years after implementation of such a hybrid system people would be just a dissatisfied as some appear to be with the Limited Voting system now.

    The reason people like Mr. Brinn don't like the Limited Voting system is simple: They can't get elected by such a system. The reason they can't is because they cannot garner enough people behind their platform to get more votes than those who can.

    And they are dishonest. People who whine about Limited Voting complain that they ought to be able to get as many votes as there are seats to be filled. But they would only get one vote in a district system. And in a hybrid the people in the districts would still get only one vote and those voting in the at large section would have their vote diluted such that even if they could vote for 5 candidates, so could everyone else and you stand no better chance of electing who you want than you do with one vote. In fact, in an at-large multi-vote system many people would vote for only person anyway, either as a part of an organized block vote or because of name recognition. Want proof? Ask those same ten people you asked about the school board to name five of the county commissioners. Odds are they will name one or two but very few will name five. So the Three Mucksters want to give these people more votes to vote for somebody they know nothing about. What sense does that make?

    So we ask Mr. Brinn, and his handlers: What will your system accomplish that cannot be accomplished with the current system?

    But the real question is: Why are you demagoguing the electoral system?

    We think the answer to that question is simple: They are trying to kill the Republican Party in Beaufort County. They appear to be motivated by what they perceive as self interest. Maybe if they can stumble across a win somewhere they can market themselves as "consultants." Delusions of grandeur. Maybe they seek spoils--appointments in Raleigh etc. Perhaps they are depressed about having lost so many times and having been rejected by...well that's another story.

    If you have read this far in the article you are no doubt a political aficionado. So you will be more interested in this question: Why are the Three Mucksters trying to muck up the Republican Party in Beaufort County?

    The numbers are irrefutable. The Limited Voting system has been the best thing that has ever happened for the GOP in Beaufort County. Why muck that up?

    Why did the Three Mucksters support Arthur Williams, a long-time Democrat with a voting record tightly fitted to Mike Easley (except on wide boats) and Bev. Perdue? Ignorance or self-interest? Depression? Or simply delusional?

    It would appear that logically the Three Mucksters have flipped out emotionally so we'll put our bet on a combination of delusion denigrated by depression. All three have egos the size of the Pamlico River. All three have been miserable flops in politics. They must think if they can win one of four seats, the world will beat a path to their doors. So in their attempt to come up with a distinguishing issue, they would sacrifice what is clearly best for the Republican Party in Beaufort County. They propose to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs for the GOP in this county. Why? Why on earth would they do that?

    Maybe it's as simple as money. At least in the case of Arthur Williams.

    But here's the reality of Beaufort County politics in 2012. This county has a three party system. Democrats have about half those who actually vote (5534 in the 2012 Primary) while Republicans and Unaffiliated poll about as many (5280 in the Primary). Thus, clearly the unaffiliated are the swing vote and turnout determines the outcome.

    No Republican without name recognition (such as Gary Brinn) can win in Beaufort County without a strong coalition of Republicans and unaffiliated. The overwhelming majority of registered Republicans are conservative. About 70% (based on the sales tax and Marriage Amendment) of those who vote are conservative. Most who do not vote conservative are black (i.e., voted for Obama).

    The unique nature of the Limited Voting system for county commissioners means that the strongest conservative(s) draws off much of the vote. (Hood Richardson typically leads the ticket with twice as many votes as the lowest winner. That tells you why Brinn is attacking Richardson. He trying to pull some of Hood's "excess" votes because he believes he can't do so from others. But the mistake he's making is that the fourth place seat will be determined more by those who voted for one of the candidates that did not win the Primary than it will be in pulling votes away from a candidate those voters have already chosen.

    Most likely the Mucksters are misreading the "anti-Hood" voters. But they didn't and never do vote for Hood. There's a faction that likes to bash Hood. But they don't vote against him in enough abundance to elect someone else. They most likely are the 30% or so of registered Democrats and they are not likely to go to Brinn's pushing of a conservative platform. Robert Belcher maybe, but not Brinn.

    What are we suggesting? Brinn will lose. But by staying in the race rather than withdrawing he will split the conservative vote and increase the probability of a Democrat being elected. And we include Jay McRoy as a Democrat since he usually (84%) votes with the Democrats when the vote is split.

    Gary Brinn and Donald Dixon (the 3rd place winner) would have been much smarter to have run on a TEA Party platform in an alliance with Hood. The TEA Party is the only organized effort that appeals to the unaffiliated, conservative voter. And there is where the future of Beaufort County politics resides. With the unaffiliated voters, most of whom subscribe to the TEA Party principles. Watch Dan Forest's results in Beaufort County to gauge that trend. Mark our words.

    Speaking of Forest, we'll also make a prediction. He is the brightest rising star in the North Carolina political firmament. He is conservative, but not radical. He is running on a platform of principles that resonate with most North Carolinians. He's likable, much like Jim Hunt was in his younger days. McCrory will be the next Governor, but if he governs like he did as mayor of Charlotte he will lose his conservative base, just as Thom Tillis and Phil Berger have done. Dan Forest will be standing in the wings. If he brings the TEA Party folks into the tent the Republican Party will rule the roost.

    What's all that got to do with Beaufort County's Limited Voting system? Simple. The black Democrats and real Republicans are not going to buy a district or hybrid system, the TEA Party is not because it gives them the best chance of impacting the County Commission vis-à-vis the unaffiliated voters and therefore there is no organized force to buy Brinn's proposal to change the Limited Voting system. Brinn, and the Three Mucksters have marginalized themselves. They may as well hook up with Al Klemm.

    So 'let me tell you, man' things will remain the same in Beaufort County.
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Comments

( October 18th, 2012 @ 6:54 am )
 
I agree, there would probably be no agreement struck with an Obama/Holder Justice Department.

What an incredible waste of time and county funds to enjoin a challenge now.

On preferential voting, we may have but under a different vernacular.

We spent quite a few days on this and it was about 9 years ago.

The 5 at large, with 2 minority districts is my favorite that we drew, and I am happy that Hood approves.

That plan would allow two extra votes for the electorate every 4 years, providing the electorate the optimum sense of representation through voter participation. The problem in this plan is the eastern minority district which would have to jump the Pamlico, bridging Belhaven with Aurora minorities.

The worst plan is the 7 district plan.

Does one really want even more co-opted county commissioners than we have right now? Some of these guys are so managed by others, I often wonder which personality is in control.
( October 18th, 2012 @ 6:44 am )
 
Editor's (Beaufort Observer) response: Stan is correct in all that he says. We differ only on the obvious soft assumption that DOJ could be convinced. Not the current DOJ. Jerry Langley and David Moore would see to in one phone call. A Romney DOJ would be irrelevant because any Pre-clearance would be appealed to the DC Court of Appeals and it would be killed there, not on a constitutional issue but on the factual basis. Hood's plan of 2 minority districts and 5 at-large would address the retrogression issue but would not likely fly because it would be statistical packing with a very distorted gerrymander. But you are precisely correct, without virtually unanimous agreement among the BOC, the current system is not going to change.

Did you and Steve evaluate preferential voting?
( October 18th, 2012 @ 5:37 am )
 
As a 16 year Beaufort County Commissioner, I have always opposed Limited Voting, but I make this long held assertion with the tempered understanding that there is little we can do until we find a better system that will pass Federal Justice pre-clearance.

It sounds confusing, and it is very much so, but the system of the current limited Voting can be changed, but only if there is the will of a majority of county commissioners simultaneous with the will of the U.S. Justice Department. This is the God's truth.

I, for one, will not opt for a poorer system just for the sake of change, and to oblige others of a much lesser knowledge of this complicated conundrum.

Hood Richardson will not either.

I was at the Candidate's Forum, and no candidate had any rudimentary knowledge of what a proper election system would entail, save Hood, and to a lesser extent Gerry Langley. Dondi Dixon, if elected, would be a quick study in such.

I know all of this because I have been at the nexus of this ongoing argument as committee chairman to evaluate the current system, and to plan the prospect of another. Incidentally, Steve Rader and I drew what alternative maps that have been drawn suggesting alternative systems, and they are stored at the Beaufort County Board of Elections, complete the then current social dichotomy of the Beaufort County electorate.

Yes, and I do wince and cringe when I hear prospective county commissioners speak on any subject when they have not taken the time to gain any understanding such. In particular on Limited Voting, I was kind'a embarrassed for them.

Candidates often say the darndest things in their quest for elected office. Candidate Gary Brinn may have set a new low in his misunderstanding of this one issue.



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