7 big questions for N.C. politics in 2023
By: Andrew Dunn
Welcome to 2023. An odd-numbered year means there are no high-profile elections this November, but plenty of positioning for 2024. Candidate filing will begin December 4.
It’s also the long session for the General Assembly, with new faces and new dynamics in both chambers.
Here are seven big questions in North Carolina politics that I’ll be waiting for answers to in 2023.
Will anyone else jump into the governor race?
We know the two major players: Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, and Attorney General Josh Stein on the Democrat side. By the middle of this year, we should know if any other significant political figures will jump into the race, as well.
Based on polling, Robinson has all but locked up the Republican nomination for governor. But the party could very well push another high-profile GOP leader into the race over the real concerns that Robinson would not be electable in a general election. Most likely, this person would be U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis — the only politician with enough money and name ID to make a real run at it.
However, Tillis is not very popular among the Republican base, and his only path to victory would be to pour millions of dollars into trashing Robinson. And he’d still likely lose.
I don’t see it happening. Chances are at least one other token Republican will enter the race — think then-state Rep. Holly Grange in 2020 — and then get thrashed 90-10 in the primary.
The situation is a little more interesting on the Democrat side. Stein does not have the same universal popularity in his party and could be much more easily challenged. However, Gov. Roy Cooper’s political machine (see item below) is presumably on Stein’s side, and that would be difficult to overcome.
In short, the GOP base is behind Robinson, but not necessarily the party leadership. The Democratic Party leadership is behind Stein, but not necessarily the base.
Can the House find a “working supermajority”?
For two years now, Gov. Cooper has been able to stymie just about every piece of legislation he doesn’t like. Through threat and coercion, he’s kept the Democratic caucus in line to sustain his veto in the General Assembly.
Roy Cooper's stranglehold on N.C. politics
That could very well change in 2023. Republicans need a three-fifths vote in each chamber to override a gubernatorial veto. The party narrowly gained that supermajority in the state Senate in the 2022 elections, capturing exactly the 30 votes needed. In the House, the GOP fell one seat short. However, there’s plenty of talk about House Republican leadership being able to reliably count on one Democrat breaking ranks and voting to override some vetoes.
Having a “working supermajority” would be key to the General Assembly being able to enact its major priorities in the 2023 session: Increasing parental power in the education system, protecting the unborn, and expanding Second Amendment rights, to name a few.
Who will benefit from new Congressional lines?
Since the state Supreme Court tossed out the General Assembly’s most recent Congressional district lines and drew their own, the legislature will almost certainly take another pass at them in 2023. This time, however, the state Supreme Court will have a much less activist legal philosophy — and will likely allow the new plan to stand.
We should know by the middle of the year who are the winners and losers in the new Congressional districts. U.S. Rep.-elect Jeff Jackson will almost certainly be on the chopping block, with Wiley Nickel close behind.
The legislature may try once again to carve out a district for House Speaker Tim Moore — and perhaps draw a tempting one for Mark Robinson as a way to nudge him out of the governor’s race.
What’s next for 2022 primary losers?
There are two Republicans in particular I’ll be watching, for very different reasons.
First, outgoing Sen. Deanna Ballard. She narrowly lost her primary (by about 300 votes) after being double-bunked with Sen. Ralph Hise in a western North Carolina district. Ballard is an outstanding public servant, and I hope she finds a major role moving forward.
The second is outgoing U.S. Rep. Madison Cawthorn. He lost his primary to Sen. Chuck Edwards after an onslaught of damaging press — much of it of his own making. We’ll know by the end of the year whether he’ll run again for a Congressional seat, or if he’ll lay low for another cycle.
Can North Carolina fix hurricane recovery?
Six years after Hurricane Matthew, Gov. Cooper still hasn’t managed to figure out how to provide disaster relief to eastern North Carolina. The General Assembly has held hearings into the matter, but has yet to take major action. If things don’t turn around quickly, the legislature may need to put new leadership in place — which could mean another legal showdown with Gov. Cooper.
How will Council of State races shake out?
Candidates are already lining up for Council of State races — Reps. Jon Hardister and Ben Moss for Commissioner of Labor, and Hal Weatherman for lieutenant governor. Look for plenty more announcements in 2023.
There could be some other major changes coming to the Council of State. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall would turn 82 by the end of another term, and may choose to retire rather than run again. There are plenty of rumors that Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler — North Carolina’s most popular political figure, by far — may decline to run again, as well. Republican state Sen. Brent Jackson is widely discussed as his successor.
Republicans will also need to field a strong attorney general candidate to face presumed opponent Jeff Jackson.
Will the General Assembly pass Medicaid expansion?
For the first time, the General Assembly will head into the long session with leaders in both chambers in favor of Medicaid expansion. However, there are some significant differences in how to go about it, and the House caucus isn’t fully on board.
The new battle lines over Medicaid expansion
It will be interesting to see if either chamber chooses to try to rope in Democrat votes rather than convincing Republican majorities to favor expansion. That would be a tactic that GOP leaders have not yet used since regaining power in 2010.
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Longleaf Politics is written by Andrew Dunn, a journalist, carpenter and communications professional in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Dunn served as the communication director for Dan Forest in his run for Governor of North Carolina. That came after a decade as a reporter and editor at Charlotte Agenda, The Charlotte Observer and the StarNews in Wilmington. Dunn grew up in Apex and graduated from UNC-Chapel Hill.
Dunn is a husband and father of four. He’s active in his church and a volunteer with the Boy Scouts of America.
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Comment
In the Republican governors primary, there are two top drawer candidate almost certain to get in and both have a following among GOP activists and the GOP base, Lt. Governor Mark Robinson and State Treasurer Dale Folwell. Mark would probably make the better candidate but Dale would make the better governor. Tillis apprears to badly want to run, but if he got the nomination, he would be an albatross around the neck of the whole GOP ticket. There is also a possibility of two other mediocre candidates running, former Congressman Mark Walker and failed former Governor Pat McCrory. Personally, I wish Folwell would keep his powder dry and run against Tillis in the 2026 Senate primary.
On the Council of State, this article missed one on Commissioner of Labor. Not only are liberal establishment Republican Jon Hardister and conservative Freedom Caucus member Representative Ben Moss running, but so is attorney Taylor Brooks, who is an opponent of Covid vaccine mandates. The article also misses what is sure to be a hot primary for Superintendant of Public Instruction. Incumbent Catherine Truitt, a McCrory moderate, has greatly disappointed the GOP base, beginning when she was sworn in and appointed a liberal Democrat as her top deputy. It has gone downhill from there, with her most recent scandal the firing of a professor at Governors School, which is run by DPI, for daring to give three optional lectures questioning CRT. It turns out that the woman Ttuitt has running Governors School is a hard core leftist. That will certainly be a major primary.
Then there is the Obamacare Medicaid expansion. The writer completely misses the real divide on this issue. It is between the Republican base which does not want this socialist program, and some GOP legislative leaders who want to pander to the special interests and pass it. Any Republican legislator who betrays the GOP base and votes for this piece of garbage needs a primary.