Different Kind Of Forecast | Eastern North Carolina Now

Publisher's note: This article appeared on John Hood's daily column in the Carolina Journal, which, because of Author / Publisher Hood, is linked to the John Locke Foundation.

    RALEIGH     It's a Snow Day throughout much of North Carolina. So, naturally, I'm thinking about surfing the waves.

    The political waves, that is.

    Historically, the first midterm election after a president is reelected is not a pleasant one for the president's party. In modern times, observes Yale University political scientist David Mayhew, the party controlling the White House has lost an average of six seats in the U.S. Senate when subjected to a "six-year-itch" midterm. The White House party also tends to lose ground in the U.S. House in that midterm, an average of 29 seats. But as Mayhew notes, the difference between incumbent-party losses in the first midterm and its losses in the second midterm aren't as evident in the House races.

    These are merely historical averages, of course. They guarantee nothing when it comes to 2014. Remember Bill Clinton's six-year-itch in 1998? (No, get your mind out of the gutter: I'm talking about electoral politics, nothing else.) His Democratic Party beat the odds by picking up seats in what had been a Republican Congress. President Obama and the Democrats would like to replicate that success in 2014.

    I don't think it will happen. As of late January, the best guess is that the upcoming midterm election will be at least a mildly Republican-leaning one, although perhaps not a massive wave election like 1994 or 2010.

    My friend Scott Elliott runs ElectionProjection.com, which uses a combination of polling data and pundit ratings to predict outcomes in presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial races across the United States. Scott's track record is quite good, in part because he doesn't let his personal preferences interfere with evaluating the data at hand.

    His preliminary take is that if the election were held today, Republicans would get that average gain in the U.S. Senate for six-year-itch cycles: six seats. The model predicts pickups in Montana, Michigan, West Virginia, Arkansas, South Dakota, and our own North Carolina. It doesn't yet predict GOP victories in other key battlegrounds such as Louisiana, New Hampshire, and Alaska. Nor does it yet give credence to Democratic hopes of picking up Kentucky or Georgia from the GOP.

    On the U.S. House side, it's way too early to offer even a preliminary assessment of individual races. However, it's worth noting that on the average generic ballot test for congressional races, the two parties are roughly tied. In late January 2010, the Republicans enjoyed about a three-percentage-point advantage on the generic ballot. Given that the GOP already has healthy margins in the U.S. House, and not a lot of swing seats (other than North Carolina's 7th District) to compete for, I have a hard time seeing a 2014 Republican gain in the historical range of 29 seats. On the other hand, unless something bizarre happens, the chances that Democrats will buck the trend and make significant gains in the House are minuscule.

    I don't think Republicans will enjoy a major fundraising advantage over Democrats. Both sides will have gobs of money to spend  -  including candidates, parties, and independent-expenditure groups. But Republicans will likely enjoy an advantage when it comes to the subject matter of the midterm elections. As I've previously observed, I expect President Obama's signature domestic policy, the Affordable Care Act, to be a major drag on the Democratic ticket in 2014. The president has also suffered blows to his personal credibility and his perceived effectiveness on foreign policy.

    In North Carolina politics, activists on both sides are as interested in the fate of the Republican legislative majority as they are in the fate of Sen. Kay Hagan and the partisan control of Congress. I suspect, however, that North Carolina voters don't see it that way. If the national Republicans have a good six-year-itch midterm, consistent with historical trends, then their losses in key legislative and county commission races in North Carolina are likely to be scant, if any.

    As always, I reserve the right to revise and extend these remarks.