DHHS Makes North Carolina Dead Last in Reporting Deaths Data to the CDC | Eastern North Carolina Now

Publisher's note: The author of this post is Jon Sanders for the John Locke Foundation.

    The last week for which the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has reported deaths data to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is May 16.

    We are the absolute last in the nation in reporting these data. It's not even close. North Carolina is a month and a half behind most other states and territories. Our closest competitor in lax reporting is West Virginia, which is still three weeks ahead of us.

    These data are very important, especially during a pandemic, so it's baffling why DHHS is withholding them.


A useful CDC tool: Excess deaths analysis

    The CDC has an interesting tool for helping pinpoint an unusual outbreak of deaths in a part of the country, regardless of the reason, at a particular moment in time. It's called "Excess Deaths." It tracks a state's average amount of deaths at that moment in time, estimated over a number a years, and predicts what the "expected deaths" will be for that time period in the future.

    Actual deaths will differ, of course, from expected deaths. As long as the actual deaths are below a 95 percent confidence interval for expected deaths, the CDC reckons there are no unusual causes of deaths in that time period (e.g., a flu). If actual deaths exceed that threshold, however, those "excess deaths" alert the CDC that there is an unusual cause of death in that jurisdiction.

    A pandemic like COVID-19 or a particularly bad outbreak of influenza could push a state into "excess deaths" territory. What makes this method so useful is that it doesn't worry about judgment calls over the actual causes of deaths. It compares total deaths in a state during a period of time with the past history of deaths in that state at that same time of the year. It isn't affected by uncertainties over classification of deaths from a pandemic like COVID-19 or the flu. (For more discussion, see Dr. Donald R. van der Vaart's discussion of the potential mixup in determining cause of death from COVID-19, flu, or pneumonia.)

    Given such reporting uncertainty, which is greater when there's a pandemic in the mix, it's very useful in general to know whether a society is witnessing more deaths than normal. All the more so when the fear of hospital overruns and widespread death are the basis for severe, government-imposed economic and personal restrictions.


The week ending May 16

    Back on May 16, North Carolina was one of only nine states whose high estimate for percent of excess deaths was zero. The others were Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Idaho, Maine, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

    It's reasonable to infer that North Carolina hasn't witnessed excess deaths in the weeks following May 16. The state already was below the excess deaths threshold then, and COVID deaths were already declining — a decline that accelerated in subsequent weeks.

    What if, by reporting deaths like other states have been doing, DHHS would also be showing that North Carolina isn't experiencing excess deaths due to COVID? Would such data disclosure undermine justifications for the Cooper administration's harsh and protracted business shutdowns, half-shutdowns, and severe economic and personal restrictions?
Go Back


Leave a Guest Comment

Your Name or Alias
Your Email Address ( your email address will not be published)
Enter Your Comment ( no code or urls allowed, text only please )




Never-Trump Group Attacks Senate Republicans, Too John Locke Foundation Guest Editorial, Editorials, Op-Ed & Politics Gov. Cooper Says Schools Will Reopen With Mix of Remote Learning, In-Person Instruction


HbAD0

Latest Op-Ed & Politics

far left sugar daddy has also funded anti-Israel groups and politicians in US
Be careful what you wish for, you may get it
America needs to wake up and get its priorities right
Former President Donald Trump suggested this week that if he becomes president again, he might allow Prince Harry to be deported.
It's a New Year, which means it's time to make resolutions — even for prominent evangelical leaders. The Babylon Bee asked the following well-known figures in the faith what they hope to accomplish in 2024:
Vice President Kamala Harris will visit a Minnesota Planned Parenthood clinic, reportedly the first time a president or vice president has visited an abortion facility.
An eight-mile stretch of the Blue Ridge Parkway near Asheville has been temporarily closed due to a string of “human and bear interactions,” the National Parks Service announced.
University of Wisconsin tried to punish conservatives for the fact that liberals regularly commit crimes to silence opposition
most voters think EU officials not doing a good job on illegal immigration

HbAD1

Come from behind by GOP candidate is a blueprint to 2024
Biden spending and energy policies to blame
Tuberculosis carried by illegal invaders has already infected Texas cattle
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said this week that the only campaign promise President Joe Biden has delivered on as president is the complete dismantling of the U.S. southern border.
Hamas is reeling after losing two of their most cherished leaders on the same day: military commander Saleh al-Arouri, and Harvard President Claudine Gay.
President Joe Biden’s brother told the Internal Revenue Service that Hunter Biden told him he was in business with a “protege of President Xi,” referring to the leader of China, according to notes by an IRS investigator that were divulged during a congressional interview of Jim Biden.
Gov. Roy Cooper seeks a temporary restraining order to block a law changing the composition of the State Board of Elections.
X owner Elon Musk mocked a news segment from ABC News this week that promoted President Joe Biden’s talking points about the Democrat-led Senate’s failed border bill, which critics and many experts have said would make the situation on the border worse.

HbAD2

 
Back to Top