Party support fluid for upcoming German parliamentary election | Beaufort County Now | While Merkel's CDU stumbles, other parties of the right gaining

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Election polls for the German parliamentary election later this month have been all over the landscape, and as the polling blackout period is arriving, there will be even more mystery until the votes are counted.  The Davos globalists are doing their darnedest to try to impose a coalition of the left - the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the Left Party (new name of the old East German Communist Party), but the main issues of concern to voters should push them to the right.

On the right side of the spectrum, Merkel's CDU is bleeding votes as her handpicked successor has proven to be a tone deaf dud on the campaign trail.  CDU candidates for the Bundestag have been begging national CDU headquarters not to send any materials with his name or face to their districts.  Meanwhile, the two parties to the CDU's right, the anti-tax and pro free market Free Democrats and the populist / nationalist anti-immigration Alternativ fur Deutschland (AfD) have been gaining votes.  The CDU's Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which has always been to the right of the CDU seems to be holding its own.

On the left, the Greens initially saw a big surge early in the campaign until voters started looking at what they really stood for and then abandoned them.  So far the Social Democrats look to gain seats.

Two big issues that bode well for the parties of the right are inflation and illegal immigration.  The Free Democrats are the party best positioned to tackle inflation which had rocketed to the top of the issues of concern to German voters.  The Afghanistan debacle has also reignited major concerns over illegal immigration, which bodes well for the two parties taking the strongest stands to stop it, mostly the AfD, but also the Free Democrats.  Meanwhile, both of the currently governing parties, the "grand coalition" of the CDU and Social Democrats have been evasive on both issues, and the Greens and Left Party take positions contrary to the majority positions of German voters.

The last election saw a significant swing to the right between the final polls and election day, and the latest polls have shown an increase in the undecided vote, as well as the rise of the Free Democrats and AfD.

The parties of the right are close to a position that would preclude a purely leftwing coalition taking power, but things are still fluid.  The numbers do not look possible for another CDU / SPD grand coalition getting a majority.  Numbers are in striking distance for a coalition of the right of the Free Democrats, AfD, CSU, and CDU. With Merkel gone and the CDU's numbers down, they may not have the power to keep the AfD out of government that they did after the last election.  The Free Democrats may well be in the catbirds seat calling the shots if the parties of the right achieve a majority. Counting the CDU and CSU as separate parties, the Free Democrats look to emerge from the election as the largest party on the right.

This German election may also be a watershed for stopping the drift toward a European super-state and perhaps lead to a breakup of the Euro currency.

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( September 11th, 2021 @ 3:16 am )
Looking at the polls and the dynamics of the German election, it appears that the CDU will end up the kingmaker, as to whether a rightward coalition is formed or one to the left, even with a reduced delegation in the Bundestag. As it did after the last election, their Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which is considerably more conservative is likely to operate on its own in coalition making and will side the the parties of the right. A FDP, AfD, CSU combination is likely to fall short of a majority, but the CDU would put them over the line. Similarly a SDP, Green, Left coalition would be short of a majority but the CDU would put them over the line. Being the odd sister in a SDP led coalition that includes the ex-communists is not likely to appeal to the CDU rank and file and could destroy the party. Merkel's strong opposition to working with the populist / nationalist anti-immigration AfD may well not be a factor with Merkel out of leadership. Her dogmatism on that issue made it impossible to form coalitions of the right while she was chancellor. After the election in one east German state, the local CDU joined a coalition with the FDP and AfD that was led by the FDP, but that coaltion lasted only a few days as Merkel put heavy pressure on the local party to withdraw its support. Merkel had no problem working with the Greens, who are farther to the left than the AfD is to the right. The departure of Merkel will be a breath of fresh air for German politics.

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