Sen. Basnight: I expect a close race | Eastern North Carolina Now

    If you were to ask people on the street who they predict will win the District 1 N.C. Senate seat, the Democrat incumbent Marc Basnight or his Republican opponent Hood Richardson, in November, it is likely that nearly everyone would choose Basnight--even Richardson.

    But not so fast! Basnight may have over 700 times the war-chest of Richardson and 13 terms under his belt, nine of which he has served as President Pro Tempore; but we're being told by analysts throughout the country that an undercurrent of conservatism is being carried and strengthened by the new, unexpected force of the Tea Party to the point it could work miracles on Election Day.

Richardson and Basnight (from left) shake hands at their meeting in Washington on Thursday.

    When Richardson sat down with Basnight in Washington on Thursday for their first, and probably last, debate, he admitted that the odds are in Basnight's favor, but left room for a potential political phenomenon.

    "I know how well liked you are in the district, and it's going to be like overcoming a mountain if I can beat you," said Richardson. "And, I doubt that I can beat you; but it will be certainly earth shattering if I do."

    Basnight's reply was earnest, even if similarly phenomenal.

    "Well, if you do, I will support you. You can believe that," he said.

    Basnight clearly dominated Republican Ron Toppin at the voting booth four times since 2000. He ran unopposed in 2008. He actually seemed pleased to have Richardson as his opponent, and expectant of a real challenge.

    "And let me say to him. I have a tough fight. I do. I know the man's history; I know him. He is a good man. I expect a close race," said Basnight.

    Richardson, in a telephone interview today, agreed that this year should be more of a contest than previous years.

    "He's never had a real adversary," said Richardson. "He's never had a candidate that ran against him that could debate alongside him and give speeches."

    The most recent publicly-available poll on the District 1 race, by the John W. Pope Civitas Institute published on Aug. 4, seems to partially confirm Richardson as a true contender. Among voters who said they are definitely going to vote in November, Basnight only held the lead by one percentage point, with 47 percent planning to vote for Basnight and 46 percent for Richardson.

    Until today's telephone interview, Richardson was unfamiliar with these favorable figures; and had previously been relying on Civitas' stated margin between voters who would hypothetically, rather than definitely, vote for either of the two candidates: 49 percent for Basnight and 39 percent for Richardson.

    At the time of the Civitas poll, Richardson said he had not yet spent any campaign dollars. As of today, he estimated his campaign expenditures to be roughly $10,000. Since the poll, he has been making personal appearances throughout the district, which he expects have swung the numbers further in his favor. Richardson said that voters are anxious for change, and that money isn't as much of a necessity in this case.

    "The wave this year is going toward throwing out incumbents," said Richardson. "Money has less to do with this election than any other year since I've been in politics.

    Furthermore, from August to September, Civitas shows in other, more generalized, polls an ideological migration from voting Democrat to voting Republican. In August, according to Civitas, a sample of voters said they would vote 27 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, 15 percent neither, and 18 percent were not sure. In September, according to Civitas, a sample of voters said they would vote 33 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, 6 percent neither, and 15 percent were not sure. If this trend toward conservatism continues into October and November, as it's expected to do, the victory for Republican candidates, such as Richardson, is very possible.

    To take control of the Senate, Republicans need to flip six seats in their favor, so they will have a 26-24 majority. For a veto-proof majority, which is what the Democrats currently enjoy, Republicans will need a 30-20 advantage. It may seem impossible, seeing as Democrats have controlled the upper chamber of the N.C. General Assembly since 1898; but given the widespread discontent with big government, a shakeup is not out of the question, provided conservatives make it from the pulpit and the protest to the polls.