Broadsword calling Danny Boy: NFL Playoffs -- Offensive efficiency or turnover margin?; Steelers (+10), Lions (-180); D/ST prep | Eastern North Carolina Now

Don't you feel it growing, day by day
People getting ready for the news
Some are happy, some are sad
Whoa, gotta let the music play

What the people need is a way to make 'em smile
It ain't so hard to do if you know how
Gotta get a message, get it on through
Oh, now momma don't you ask me why

Whoa, oh listen to the music
Whoa, oh listen to the music
Whoa, oh listen to the music
All the time

Well I know, you know baby, everything I say
Meet me in the country for a day
We'll be happy, and we'll dance
Oh, we're gonna dance our blues away

And if I'm feeling good to you and you're feeling good to me
There ain't nothing we can't do or say
Feeling good, feeling fine
Oh, baby, let the music play

Like a lazy flowing river
Surrounding castles in the sky
And the crowd is growing bigger
Listening for the happy sounds
And I got to let them fly - Tom Johnston


The Traveller and her Dad review the run-stopping equation.: Above.     Click image to enlarge.
    The NFL Playoffs have arrived and command center stage now through the Super Bowl. The attention and analysis toward these games will be without equal as punters around the globe attempt to suss the magic formula leading to victory over The Man. The curtain goes up on handicapping's largest stage this weekend as thirteen games remain.

    Our plan had been to have ten plus units from the college campaign to fund an epic Super Bowl safety move at around (+1000). Alas after being way ahead recent setbacks, to include Washington dropping the ball, have seen us skid into the end of the season at the Mendoza Line with a 14-14 mark and up 3.35 units in this space.


    Now the playoffs are here and we hold half unit futures positions on the BROWNS (+1400) and LIONS (+750) to win their respective conferences and make it to the Super Bowl. We understand the value in these moves but when it comes to NFL football we know even less about that than the college game. With that in mind we once more seek out Farnell for insight, hoping he can right the ship as of late we have been firing blanks.

    "They say offence sells tickets but defence wins championships. Think instead that offence wins the money line and defence covers the spread. Who is going to win outright at home at a short price is always the first question. The second is where can a stylistically superior defence catch some points and carry us home on the line better than 54 percent of the time?"

    (We have absolutely zero idea what this guy is talking about but we are catching big time heat from this losing streak. We love babble when it cashes tickets but we need winners, Man. Less sizzle, more steak, please.)

    "The sizzle is where the value is found but we understand. Last year we shared our proprietary NFL postseason power rankings but will simplify this year. Our weighted matrix of ypp/ppg X oer / dynamic to/ratio has worked the last few seasons. Basically it tells us we want the LIONS (-180) at home versus the Rams. This line opened five and is now three and the hook. The Rams are an up and coming team but the Lions are the hungry orphans looking to feed starving Motown bellies. Barring a turnover mismatch the Rams cannot keep up with Detroit's offensive efficiency."

    "Much of the focus of this contest will be on each QB facing his former team as Stafford leads the Rams and Goff the Lions after they were traded for each other a couple seasons back. Goff with the slightly better numbers this season but the loss of Sam LaPorta to injury last week costs Detroit some receiving depth and part of the reason the number has dropped from the open."

    "Both defences are similar in that they are shaky. While not as a dynamic concept as in college ball there is a run-stopping equation advantage for the Lions. This should help offset the turnover differential which breaks for the Rams. Bottom line is that if Goff will take care of the ball and avoid the picks, the Lions will roll in a high scoring affair."

    Sounds good, Man. Is that the top game?

    "Negative, Ghost Rider. The game we love is the STEELERS (+10) at Buffalo in terrible weather. Snow likely, wind 25 plus and gusting and temps well below freezing. The Steelers are plus 11 in turnover margin and Buffalo under Allen has lost 28 turnovers. When the ball is turned over, field position changes dramatically and in a game likely to feature fewer possessions -- that is helpful when catching double digit points."

    "The Bills have been up and down this season with Allen heavily favoured to throw at least one pick in this scrimmage and the Steelers offence is all about the running game. Mike Tomlin not necessarily the coach we want to win a big game but Pittsburgh is 7-1 in outdoor games with a temperature under 30 degrees the last ten years. The cold home field advantage is part of this high price; the Steelers the one team that likes cold, raw physical games. They are all about defence and running the ball. This price is way too high."

    "We are going with a full D/ST spread the entire playoff card. This is a ticket that pays off if the team scores a defensive or special teams touchdown. The price can run anywhere from (+450) to (+1100) depending upon the team and we think the weather sufficiently bad to have non programme portfolios take a look. The Bills are (+600) and the Steelers (+1100) and with 28 Bills turnovers so far this season we have to think there is value with the Steelers at this price. Weather works both ways and the Buffalo price right on the good edge of value."


    This all sounds very technical which is what pro football is about. With a new campaign beginning from a 0-0 start we want to come out of the gate hard. Our calls here are the LIONS (-180) for one unit which means we risk 1.8 units to win one and just need the Lions to win to cash the ticket. We take the STEELERS (+10) for three units and will also take one unit of D/ST on each of BUFFALO (+600) and the STEELERS (+1100). Six of the remaining thirteen games go this weekend; we will check our fire on the other four and hope the defences show up in Buffalo.

LIONS    30  •  RAMS    21

STEELERS    16  •  BILLS    10

    If college football is an art form to handicap, NFL football is a technical exercise. The game lines are razor sharp in the playoffs but the prop card has a lot of holes in it. Sharp-eyed punters will examine the expanded card through these mediums; the D/ST matrix can make one well in a hurry. Any kind of luck this weekend and the last seven games likely to be hit hard there.

    The college campaign was an epic one but that is in the past. Once gained, lost units are no more than chips swept away from a seven-out: The dice are passed and a new come out roll is launched. The playoffs are wide open -- anything can happen as we track toward the Super Bowl safety and the biggest hit ever.