Beaufort Co. - Preparations and Response Posture for TS Debby | Eastern North Carolina Now

Press Release:

    Elected Officials, Managers and Public Safety Partners,

    We are continuing to watch the developing forecast for tropical system Debby. As mentioned in previous updates, the various forecast models are still inconsistent on the some of the finer details of our expected impacts, such as the timing of our heaviest winds, rain, etc.. We also do not have the storm surge forecast, as these are not typically issued by the National Hurricane Center in advance of 72hrs from landfall. However, we hope these disparities are resolved with tomorrow's updates. Until then, we are sharing the following as things to consider as you are underway with your preparation efforts.

    Rain

• Confidence is high that Debby will bring an abundance of rain to our area. While the official forecast is currently calling for 6 to 8 inches, we would not be surprised if that is increased once again to show 10+ inches. (Especially for the southern portions of our county, as an increase in rainfall amounts have been the trend over the last 72 hours of model runs.)
• This afternoon's model runs suggest that our heaviest rains will occur between 8am Thursday and 8am Saturday.

    Winds

• Our winds are expected to increase around noon on Wednesday and remain elevated through Saturday morning. This afternoon's model runs suggest the following wind conditions
• Wednesday: East winds sustained around 10 mph, with frequent gust between 15 and 25 mph.
• Thursday: East winds that will transition to the Southeast; sustained between 15 and 20 mph with frequent gust of 25 to 40 mph.
• Higher gust of 30+ mph is expected after sunset Thursday as Debby begins to cross the center of our state.
• Friday: Southeast winds that will transition to the South in the afternoon; sustained between 15 and 25 with frequent gust of 35 to 45 mph.
• Again, higher gust of 30+ mph are expected through sunset Friday as Debby passes through the central part of the state.
• Saturday: South winds that will transition to the Southwest, sustained between 15 and 20 mph, with frequent gust of 25 to 30 mph.
• These wind gust will be high during the early morning hours, as Debby enters Virgina.
• Our winds should begin decrease after lunchtime on Saturday.
• Gust of 45 to 60 mph will be possible during this time, especially along our shorelines and open land areas.

    Storm Surge

• As previously mentioned, official storm surge values are not provided outside of 72 from landfall. However, given the wind conditions referenced above, we anticipate those surge values to range between 1 to 3 feet / 2 to 4 feet above normally dry ground for our waterways. Here is our reasoning for this expectation.
• We will experience about 48 hours of sustained East and SE winds greater than 10 mph between Wednesday morning and Friday morning. This wind direction will push water up many of our waterways.
• In addition, there will be about 24 hours of South and Southwest winds, greater than 15 mph, beginning around sunrise Friday and continuing through early Saturday morning. This wind direction will push water up many of our north facing rivers, such as the Pungo Rive and impacting Belhaven.
• Based on the current forecast details, it will most likely be early Saturday afternoon before we start to see our surge levels diminish.
• Remember, we typically tolerate up to 4 feet of surge well. We begin to have access issues in and out of our low-lying communities at 5'. We begin to have water threaten / enter low-lying homes at 6+ feet.

    Potential Hazards Include

• Flash flooding from periods of heavy rain. (This includes flooded vehicles that have attempted to drive through standing water.)
• Down trees and powerlines as a result of high winds and saturated grounds.

    Beaufort County's Preparations and Current Operational Posture

• Emergency Services has contacted our county's nursing and assisted living facilities to ensure they are adequately prepared for the coming days.
• Our county departments are beginning their inclement weather preparations.
• Fuel and operational status of our generators at essential buildings have been checked.
• Governor Cooper has just issued a State of Emergency for NC. We have not received a notification of a Federal Emergency declaration yet.
• Based on the current forecast, we do not anticipate a county declaration at this time. However, we are prepared to do so if necessary.
• Note to Municipalities: Please remember to send a copy of any declaration that you may issue for your jurisdiction to Melissa (mbeacham@beaufortcountync.gov) and DC Linton (david.linton@beaufortcountync.gov) so that we can upload them into the state system.
• While we do not anticipate opening public shelters based on the current forecast, we have communicated with our shelter partners to ensure a state of readiness.
• Given the current forecast, we do not anticipate the need for a full Emergency Operations Center (EOC) or Incident Management Team (IMT) activation. Addition details pertaining to the fulfillment of these functions will be shared in a forthcoming email. (Most likely by tomorrow afternoon, once we start to see more confidence in the forecast.

    As always, thank you all for what you do to keep Beaufort County safe, and please do not hesitate to contact us if we can help with anything.


   Chris Newkirk
   Deputy Director
   Beaufort County Emergency Services
   1420 Highland Dr
   Washington, NC 27889
   Office: (252)940-6511
   Cell: (252) 378-5352