Why the Supreme Court is so important in the 2012 elections | Eastern North Carolina Now

    Publisher's Note: This article originally appeared in the Beaufort Observer.

    This story may be the most important story of the year...both this year and last, except for who is elected on November 6. And the two stories are inextricably tied together.

    Ruth Bader Ginsburg has let the Cat Out Of The Bag that she will not retire before the next presidential inauguration. That could be of historical importance, for two reasons.

    First Barack Obama may not get to appoint any more Supreme Court justices. Justice Anthony Kennedy, the other justice most likely to leave the court next, has already telegraphed that he is intent on not allowing Obama to appoint his replacement. Now Ginsburg appears set to deny him another appointment; if indeed he is not re-elected.

    If he is re-elected there is a good chance the Democrats will not control the Senate and thus he would likely not be able to get his choice approved by the Senate.

    The Court is currently split 4-4-1 with four conservatives, four liberals and one swing vote in Kennedy, who has recently been going with the conservatives.

    If a Republican is elected in November, that person will likely get two relatively quick appointments; Ginsburg and Kennedy. Kennedy would not likely make a dramatic change in the 5-4 decisions of late but Ginsburg certainly would. Here, replacement by a conservative, would make a 6-3 right-leaning court and even if Kennedy or his replacement defected, the conservative block would be sufficient to prevail on most issues, especially on issues of federalism.

    But the reverse is equally true.

    If Obama gets re-elected and he can push his nominations through the Senate he could produce a 6-3 liberal court which would likely rule the day far after he is gone.

    The recent trend we have seen with Obama of disregarding traditional constitutional mandates makes it all the more important who sits on the Supreme Court, if for no other reason than to dismantle much of the distortions Obama has made in our Founding Principles. And who wins the election in 2012, both for the White House and the U. S. Senate will determine that. Thus, although it is often said, this election may be the most important since the Civil War and certainly since FDR.